Pattern Caperil 2021

[Myfrotho704_]

Severe Weather Topics

www.weather.gov

Your favorite!!!

 

[GaWx]

He isn’t wrong though some people have said we have 6 month summers before . Though they probably weren’t being serious lol. Also I’d even argue your area has more like 6 months of summer , close to it perhaps . Whatever length of time the average high is over 80 for you.

An average high of 80+ being summer is your definition. That’s going to vary as it is subjective and also heavily influenced by one’s region. Also, to me at least, summer weather is not just about temperatures as it is also very much also about dewpoints.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

An average high of 80+ being summer is your definition. That’s going to vary as it is subjective and also heavily influenced by one’s region. Also, to me at least, summer weather is not just about temperatures as it is also very much also about dewpoints.

Dewpoints below 80 and above 70 Is always a welcome sight amirite ?

 

[SASQUATCH]

Dewpoints below 80 and above 70 Is always a welcome sight amirite ?

This comment belongs on Fail Army!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is it

 

[NorthDFWwx]

The drought conditions here should definitely worsen in the coming days.

No rain in the forecast (well, technically a 30% chance of showers late tomorrow) in the next 7 days.

 

[smast16]

Dewpoints below 80 and above 70 Is always a welcome sight amirite ?

Only if there's a shelf to hang the day on.

 

[olhausen]

Got down to 31.6 this morning. After this warm spell I’ve got a chance at 4 nights total counting this morning of going below freezing between now and Sunday.

 

[SD]

That gfs run sure didn't end warm

 

[cd2play]

That gfs run sure didn't end warm

It’s a process.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That gfs run sure didn't end warm

At least the gefs doesn’t look like it... yet

 

[SD]

At least the gefs doesn’t look like it... yet View attachment 80857View attachment 80858

I'm not a fan of either. It's way too easy to cutoff/stall/get cold under that block. We probably have very warm periods but we are riding the fence between 80 and 50 a good part of the next 2 weeks

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I'm not a fan of either. It's way too easy to cutoff/stall/get cold under that block. We probably have very warm periods but we are riding the fence between 80 and 50 a good part of the next 2 weeks

Might get some severe wx to if we get a handoff from the western trough and cut something off, sorta like early March

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is so close to setting up NW flow Storm complex setups over us towards day 8+

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is so close to setting up NW flow Storm complex setups over us towards day 8+

Low level moisture is meh but those MLLRs are very impressive, typical with NW flow to get steep mid level lapse rates
Need to improve low level moisture

 

[SD]

Low level moisture is meh but those MLLRs are very impressive, typical with NW flow to get steep mid level lapse rates
Need to improve low level moisture View attachment 80862View attachment 80863View attachment 80864View attachment 80865

Good potential in this setup to get warm warm for a day or 2. If this were early June ? ? ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Good potential in this setup to get warm warm for a day or 2. If this were early June ? ? ?

If it was June with that look Then it would be full on weenie mode with a MCS, still sucks that it’s early and low level moisture sucks but tbh if we’re gonna sneak N/S energy to our NE under a block, let’s keep it up into June for some active severe wx !!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Torchpril

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Here come the 90s!!! ?

 

[FamouslyHot]

Some decent snow totals on the Euro for the midweek storm/NW flow snow. I'll be on Mt. Leconte saturday. Most of the snow should still be there.
After this I'd say the mountains may be out of chances for snow. I'm not buying how the 12z GFS tried to hold onto the cold.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SASQUATCH]

Here come the 90s!!! ?

View attachment 80867

 

[cd2play]

Gross

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gross

Yummy

 

[NoSnowATL]

Yummy

If I can’t burn within 15 mins it’s not hot enough.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[NorthDFWwx]

?View attachment 80878

Trash.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Trash.

You sure

 

[NorthDFWwx]

You sure View attachment 80879View attachment 80880View attachment 80881

Veered flow? Passage before peak heating? Dry/cool NW flow behind it?

Yep, positive.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Veered flow? Passage before peak heating? Dry/cool NW flow behind it?

Yep, positive.

true every setup there seems capped (sucks to suck)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting how models show no sign of a FSW event yet

 

[Tarheel1]

Craperil

 

[olhausen]

Craperil View attachment 80900View attachment 80901View attachment 80902View attachment 80900View attachment 80901View attachment 80902

That blue over middle Tennessee is much more impressive then up in Iowa. If snow flurries happen to fall it would be the 2nd April in a row with snowfall and 3 out of the last 4 here. Before a few years ago I had only seen it snow once in April.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Now GGEM's teasing us with 90s in the long term...?

 

[NorthDFWwx]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 80911

Time for the permanent Weenie roast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Next week ??

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Next week ??View attachment 80915View attachment 80916View attachment 80917

One of those is not like the others...

 

[GaWx]

Next week ??View attachment 80915View attachment 80916View attachment 80917

This 17 day gfs run never gets you over 80? That’s pretty pathetic.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This 17 day gfs run never gets you over 80? That’s pretty pathetic.

To be fair the cold biased cmc is spitting out 85