True it is the most cold biased but the CMC overall sucks in terms of overall accuracy. So, noting the CMC is also pretty pathetic. You can’t do better than that?
Meanwhile, enjoy your two cold nights coming up! Those are much more notable.
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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
True it is the most cold biased but the CMC overall sucks in terms of overall accuracy. So, noting the CMC is also pretty pathetic. You can’t do better than that?
Meanwhile, enjoy your two cold nights coming up! Those are much more notable.
? 
Stormsfury
Member
The Easter Weekend Outbreak was very intense. In fact, In South Carolina, it produced the strongest tornado in the Charleston WFO of responsibily EF4 (only one on record) at the most unclimatologically favored time of day...and unfortunately several fatalities with that parent supercell which would produce another strong EF3 in the Monck's Corner area around 8am...
11 tornadoes from the parent, 10 in SC and another 3 offshore including a Doppler radar indicated powerhouse.
The CMC cold bias is laughable. A 21 low on Saturday in Concord, NC? It really is the Crazy Uncle of models. We'll see how far off they end up being. I mean this model is way over-radiating so badly that it is leaving Hogtown type radiation in the dust! @pcbjr
NWS forecast:
FRIDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
*Corrected
Last edited:
cd2play
Member
I guess this coming cold snap would be Dogwood Winter. So, I'm guessing sometime in late April, we'll have Locust Winter. Then we get Blackberry Winter in May... then that's it... it will be off to endless summer!
No, it is Indian winter.
GSP has an interesting discussion about wintry possibilities for the mountains:
CONCERNS TURN TO WINTRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT, AS 850 MB
TEMPS CRASH FROM +11-12 DEG C AT 21Z TO 0 TO -2 DEG C BY 03Z, AND
CONTINUES FALLING THRU THE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR NW FLOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LINGERING INTO THURSDAY ALONG
THE TN BORDER. CONFIDENCE ON SNOW ACCUMS IS STILL LOW, BUT COULD
SEE 1-3" OF SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. STRONG WINDS MAY
ALSO APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT, WITH A SIGNAL
FOR STRONG CHANNELING OF FLOW UP THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON THE
NAM. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AS POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY, FALL TO 2-5 DEG BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN WARM TO ONLY 15-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY (HIGHS WE'D
EXPECT IN EARLY FEBRUARY).
Below is the laughable 12Z CMC for Saturday morning, the second of the two cold ones due to excellent radiation. It isn't on crack. Rather, it is quite sober and is just a bad, strongly cold biased model...it even has a freeze for a small part of NW FL lmao:
Holy ---- 
LickWx
Member
That’s climo! Average first 30c+ day is in April !
We might seriously get warm around that time
Been there, done that last week here...actually even hotter.
So having that here wouldn't be a shocker. Now up your way that would be impressive. And such a cold biased model showing that heat is notable. But this is merely the highly unreliable day 10 of the operational Crazy Uncle. So, I wouldn't go to Vegas and bet on this level of heat up your way just yet.
cd2play
Member
Susan Banks pattern.
It could really get warm after this cool down, really nice setup to bake if any boundary hangs to our NE
cd2play
Member
I think it could turn warm and dry, depends on ridge setup.
Beautiful weather 
Regardless of the cold start, April will still likely be another warmer than normal month in the SE because that's GW related climo, bro.
Edit for @Myfrotho704_ : Actually, I expect Apri-Aug at a minimum to all be warmer than 30 year normals. Most recent years have been that way. That's why I cherish any BN periods so much these days.
Euro is much warmer then the GFS for this timeframe and matches the CMC more 
LickWx
Member
71 and sunny here but looks like GSO is only 64. Unusual my large difference for such a bright sunny day
This is not how it works this early, that should be over US 
LickWx
Member
Means we will be nice and warm though !
True
Puts in PTO request
850 at 21c 925 at 24c at 12Z Friday that would be close to getting us to right around 90-92.
smast16
Member
It wasn't right, I went running around 1 and it was warm. Now it's showing 67, and I feel that's still too low.
RollTide18
Member
Last April was pretty rough here in Alabama, could definitely use a break here.
That used to be the June and July pattern
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m still not for record heat or sweating of any kind ... severe tho .. gimme that ish
Your about to get a late season freeze relax, it’s time for warmth n heat after
modernweenie
000
FXUS64 KFWD 301906
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021
The upper pattern should remain relatively stagnant the first half
of next week with the high amplitude ridge anchoring itself over the
center of the country based on the ECMWF and Canadian solutions
(which have been in good agreement the past several runs). This
pattern (more indicative of late spring) will yield very warm and
humid weather with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 80s and lows
Monday night in the 60s. It does not appear that we will see any
record high temperatures, at least for the first half of the week
but it will still be very warm for early April.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 301906
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021
The upper pattern should remain relatively stagnant the first half
of next week with the high amplitude ridge anchoring itself over the
center of the country based on the ECMWF and Canadian solutions
(which have been in good agreement the past several runs). This
pattern (more indicative of late spring) will yield very warm and
humid weather with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 80s and lows
Monday night in the 60s. It does not appear that we will see any
record high temperatures, at least for the first half of the week
but it will still be very warm for early April.
Bring those hotter temps here
I mean, I'd rather not, unless we are getting some decent storms with that pattern.
Storms of some form are inevitable at some point when you have hot temps.
Gotta smell the heat, to have storms