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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Hrrr shows some stuff making it East of the mountains fri morning 
Keep the clouds around
Lol 
@Myfrotho704_ is taking a beating recently .. mid April frost freeze anybody??? ?
Next wintry threat past the flizzard will be our MID April -NAO driven deep diver ... wow that’s going to sting on @Myfrotho704_ s skin
Could APRIL end up below normal?
These sort of posts belong in the banter thread, your down terrible posting the hour 360 gfs ??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
SWVAwxfan
Member
Geez. 20s in mid April?
Yep, that’s the joke
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Shut up
LickWx
Member
These models never know how to handle cold patterns . They always go so overboard when the pattern is cool to normal lol. It sucks because it gets these weenies all excited for literally nothing .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes 20s if you mean Celsius and not Fahrenheit
Look what HM said earlier, get ready for some chasing if your able to in May
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I won’t have any time off accrued for work, unless I get fortunate and it happens on a weekend
SWVAwxfan
Member
Where did you move to?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Las Cruces, NM
1. Due to cold biases, they often overdo cold patterns. But not in the current case. This one has been called far in advance and with accuracy.
2. When there is a -NAO, that is one of the situations where the models sometimes underestimate cold in the E US.
Clearly some don’t like jokes .. that is okay .. I hope most see the satire that is the use of any long range anything being used to show something definite ... it’s just funny we will be dealing with another cool period mid April they seem to last longer and longer every year
LickWx
Member
We are talking about a mid April snowstorm with another freeze lol. You sure about that being well called for in advance ? Not too mention we had a raging -NAO all winter and it never got as cold as it was supposed to. Granted it didn’t get as warm either . Trust me those models won’t be underestimating cold anytime soon!
LickWx
Member
I’m sorry what ? We had our 2 warmest April’s on record in the last 11 years (2010 and 2017). April’s been running more times than not very close to average .
CAPEril sunset #1 
You are correct about this cold snap in the next few days. Very well modeled... in fact that Canadian run from the other day that had Concord getting down in the low 20s is still going to off, but not as much as we thought then. My low is forecasted to be 28 on both Friday and Saturday morning, but I am hopeful that we may have some clouds Thursday night to help out some.
@Chazwin just addressed the well forecasted upcoming cold. But if you still have doubt, you can go here to see as far back as the 18Z 3/24 run and go forward from there:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2021032418&fh=192
Every single GFS run since had the cold snap well modeled. You can also look back in the March thread back to these two from @SD on 3/24 that now make him look like a guru:
Pattern - Muddy March 2021
You wake up.. it’s almost mid April ... and all day it stays in the 30s ... and scene They polished a turd.
southernwx.com
Pattern - Muddy March 2021
I had no idea you moved. Where the hell have I been? Where is the Southwest did you move to? New Mexico!
southernwx.com
-----------------------------------------
I even owe an apology to the Crazy Uncle because of this post I also did about the 12Z 3/24 run:
Pattern - Muddy March 2021
I had no idea you moved. Where the hell have I been? Where is the Southwest did you move to? New Mexico!
southernwx.com
I said:
"More about the cold biased Crazy Uncle: 12Z on 4/3 has RAH well down into the 20s, upper 20s at ATL, and upper 30s down to about Hogtown (I don't believe it, @pcbjr , as it is far out on its own and it has a bad cold bias): it has a 1040 Arctic high parked over the SE...not going to happen!"
Well well well, RAH is progged to get down into the upper 20s, ATL near 30, and @pcbjr 's Hogtown upper 30s. Other than having the high too strong by ~5 mb, that Crazy Uncle run was nearly spot on and I was wrong to not believe it would get that cold. Of course, that doesn't mean it doesn't still have a bad cold bias.
GFS is on cold crack, lack of support from even its own ensemble is laughable, lol
LickWx
Member
Your missing the point entirely . We were referring to the mid April cold snap that Nicky threw out !
Until the -nao gets out of the way I wouldn't take the means totally at face value. There's too much volatility happening under the block so it smooths toward average.
I apologize as I misunderstood you but can explain why I misunderstood:
I said "Due to cold biases, they often overdo cold patterns. But not in the current case. This one has been called far in advance and with accuracy."
I was then referring to the one in early April to give you an example that sometimes cold is well forecasted well in advance. But you must have thought I was talking about the GFS mid April cartoons as then you said:
"We are talking about a mid April snowstorm with another freeze lol. You sure about that being well called for in advance ?"
When you asked if I was sure about that one being called in advance, I again referred to early, not mid, April. Do you see why there was a mixup?
Yes, of course, the mid April chill is only just now starting to appear and is merely intense speculation that far out.
You remember what happened all winter ... models see the -NAO in medium to short range and the ensembles smooth down to a cooler idea come verification ... of course this is only when the -nao is so prominent like it could become once again (btw I hope the -nao isn’t so shy in the coming years we just broke a 10 year drought of no -nao and if we had it a few of those years we would be rocking )
Even with a retrograding -NAO block we’re seeing upcoming (Baffin bay block) your typically getting average to slightly below temps (Jan for ex) not much cold with that look
Good lord this is terrible. If we back the ridge across Canada though this isn't unrealistic.
LickWx
Member
To be fair, we actually didn't have a raging -NAO all winter. Rather we had a raging -AO all winter. The -NAO was only "raging" in January as it averaged only slightly negative in Dec and actually averaged slightly positive in Feb.:
2020 1.34 1.26 1.01 -1.02 -0.41 -0.15 -1.23 0.12 0.98 -0.65 2.54 -0.30
2021 -1.11 0.14
Raleigh ended up slightly colder than normal thanks to the raging -AO more than anything else but likely helped by especially the strong Jan
-NAO. Keep this in mind: the -AO and periods of -NAO were always up against a hostile (for SE cold) Pacific due to La Nina and the very warm W Pac as well as the +AMO. It was a battle and Raleigh still came out slightly BN. Remember that just about all preseason forecasts were for a mild winter. So, the winter was supposed to be mild, not cold. The -AO especially and the -NAO to a lesser extent kept the winter from being mild like it was originally supposed to be,
Yep not a bad low topped hailer inverted V wind setup. Just have to avoid the wedge
Not trying to rain on your parade but I wouldn't be entirely shocked if we tried to roll through another -nao cycle around memorial day.
As for the sea ice yeah these high latitude blocking springs can't be good
LickWx
Member
Yeah , our friends in Western Europe are about to have a very cold rainy summer . Big contrast to the last 2 years of record smashing heat there . GFS has like a foot of snow somehow for London next 2 weeks .
Also yeah I’ve already been expecting this to be the case . I think we will be getting a very hot later part of summer but June and may may not be so hot.
fun fact: paris has been above average for 22 months straight with the vast majority of those months being all time record warm months , beating out months in a 200 year long record . That’s the equivalent of Raleigh having the climate of Tallahassee for almost 2 straight years . Yet everyone on here keeps bragging about how they get all the cold ! I wish lol! They are never below average .
Still wonder how a -NAO effects things like NW flow in May/June