Not one EPS member is sub 40 here but that is likely going to be too high given the look with a potential for low dewpoints coming in and good radiational cooling nights.
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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
As long as we can avoid a hard freeze we should be ok. I actually think the more impressive Cold potential is in the 10-14 day range when the Nao breaks and the pna becomes a little taller and the main driver. The good news is every day that we go forward its a little harder to get a freeze even with a cold H5 setup
smast16
Member
As far as the grass is concerned, soil temps are the biggest driver, and one night shot in the low 40's upper 30's will hardly be noticed by turf. The thermal mass of soil is too great. Given the recent 70's and upcoming 80's, I think a brief cool spell will help to slow the rise of soil temps and keep them in the 60's, which is prime cool season grass growth... (unless you have bermuda... #stillsleeping)
@SD Correct me if I'm wrong...
You are correct. It'll be good weather if you have fescue or overseeded rye. The warm season stuff should green up again and a few nights in the upper 30s will stress it but not kill it.
smast16
Member
cd2play
Member
Almost 70 already looks like we set the bar for warmest day so far in 2021 today then raise it tomorrow
The MJO seems to be driving the pattern more than the teleconnections.
Right now it is in phase 6, which would suggest a continued warm pattern for the central / eastern US. But if it manages to get into phase 7, then yeah, it's going to cool off.
Right now it is in phase 6, which would suggest a continued warm pattern for the central / eastern US. But if it manages to get into phase 7, then yeah, it's going to cool off.
Well done
This is straight depressing why can’t we keep the weather we have now , 
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76F back home and 73F here lol
Because change is perfectly normal for wx outside of summer. That's good because changes make wx more interesting for this wx hobbyist. I could ask the same question you did about the recent cold, but that also wouldn't be realistic as my liking of it is irrelevant.
I think changes are bound to happen especially with such a large block .. we remember how all models basically sucked outside of 3 days I bet we see wild changes for next couple days
Bring it on. I love to follow wild model changes as they struggle to discover what is already determined. If they hardly changed from run to run, who would be following them with this much enjoyment? Not I!
The 12Z GEFS early maps are already confirming that it, too, will likely be warmer toward midmonth.
These warmer changes are related to a westward shift at H5.
Worth noting that wavelengths are shortened so a +PNA could mean something trying to go the central US vs the eastern US, especially initially