• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern August '22

All you on here claiming the 90s were 'PROBABLY" done need start praying, And this isn't just one model run either. Days and Days of 90's.

1661353021904.png

1661353114172.png
1661353145882.png

1661353064724.png
1661353204688.png

#weeniesgonnaweenie
 
StormDrain said:
Bring it on ?

GFS has a warm/mixing bias a few days out though. 97-98°F in central VA on Saturday? Yeah nah bror. NWS has highs in the 91-92°F range there.
Click to expand...
Right, it won't be 100 like it was showing the last few days, but it'll be in the 90s.

The worst part is the cool spell killed pool temps, so now I really don't even want to get in the pool to cool of.
 
Guys, the head fake early fall seems to have disappeared. I am not surprised, but disappointed nonetheless. A few days ago there were no temps above 83 forecasted for MBY on the ten day, now all temps are over 83, with most being upper 80s (unless you look at TWC extended). No 90s on the forecast but still... This is that time of year it just feels like a slow torture to get fall underway and get this dratted humidity beaten down. Maybe that typical mid Sept period will deliver this year...
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah most of us pretty much knew we weren't that lucky. 90s are possible through the 1st half of October. And lately that's the way it's been.
Click to expand...
Possible but very unlikely for most areas in October. It's happened before but it's not like it happens every year.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Guys, the head fake early fall seems to have disappeared. I am not surprised, but disappointed nonetheless. A few days ago there were no temps above 83 forecasted for MBY on the ten day, now all temps are over 83, with most being upper 80s (unless you look at TWC extended). No 90s on the forecast but still... This is that time of year it just feels like a slow torture to get fall underway and get this dratted humidity beaten down. Maybe that typical mid Sept period will deliver this year...
Click to expand...
90 is in our forecast here in Union county from the NWS for 2 days now and I'd expect these to go on up to 91-92 before too long. Unless the tropics heat up, we are headed for a fall like we had not too long ago when 100 degree temps lasted until Oct.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Guys, the head fake early fall seems to have disappeared. I am not surprised, but disappointed nonetheless. A few days ago there were no temps above 83 forecasted for MBY on the ten day, now all temps are over 83, with most being upper 80s (unless you look at TWC extended). No 90s on the forecast but still... This is that time of year it just feels like a slow torture to get fall underway and get this dratted humidity beaten down. Maybe that typical mid Sept period will deliver this year...
Click to expand...
The forecasts were carrying the BN temps for several runs. I suspect we could go back to those predictions in the upcoming releases.
 
I'd wager that the chances of me finishing the month where I currently sit at 0.75" are better than 50/50. If that were to happen, that would put my June-August rain totals at 7.62", or 54% of the average during that time period

Makes me wonder if my little corner of Durham County is one of the driest locations in the Triangle area.....
 
Bannerdude said:
I'd wager that the chances of me finishing the month where I currently sit at 0.75" are better than 50/50. If that were to happen, that would put my June-August rain totals at 7.62", or 54% of the average during that time period

Makes me wonder if my little corner of Durham County is one of the driest locations in the Triangle area.....
Click to expand...
We are in this together. Even with getting some decent rains this month im only around 8.5 for JJA sector_NC__network_WFO__src_mrms__opt_dep__usdm_no__ptype_g__sdate_2022-06-01__edate_2022-08-2...png
 
It's pretty disappointing that we have a nice disturbance rotating through nam3km_z500_vort_seus_fh4-16.gif
But pwats are mehpwtr (1).gif Thanks to the front/trough passage Monday so the net result is womp oofhrrr_apcpn_seus_15 (1).png

I've said it before I'll say it again summer front passages are doo doo and kill rain chances far longer on the back end than model forecasts
 
Last edited:
SD said:
We are in this together. Even with getting some decent rains this month im only around 8.5 for JJA View attachment 120934
Click to expand...
Interesting map, look at that other dry corridor in NE NC. I had 1.6 in June and 1.6 so far this month but according to the Weather Flow, 8.6 in July, which puts me over 11" for JJA. However, I noticed yesterday where my brother had some water lines put it (dug down over 24"), there was little to no soil moisture below the surface and most creeks are still low, ponds too. So, not sure if my PWS was off that much in August or thanks to the bookend dry months it didn't do much.
 
metwannabe said:
Interesting map, look at that other dry corridor in NE NC. I had 1.6 in June and 1.6 so far this month but according to the Weather Flow, 8.6 in July, which puts me over 11" for JJA. However, I noticed yesterday where my brother had some water lines put it (dug down over 24"), there was little to no soil moisture below the surface and most creeks are still low, ponds too. So, not sure if my PWS was off that much in August or thanks to the bookend dry months it didn't do much.
Click to expand...
Probably just didn't do much. I've had a bunch of .33 .4 .6 type events and that's great to keep the grass green but it's not doing a lot for the water table when you are barely wetting through the root zone
 
SD said:
Probably just didn't do much. I've had a bunch of .33 .4 .6 type events and that's great to keep the grass green but it's not doing a lot for the water table when you are barely wetting through the root zone
Click to expand...
A local pond dropped so much the grass grew on the exposed dirt. Now newly exposed bottom is visible. Like you we get enough rain every 10 days or so to keep us from going full on desert but PGV is still running a 6.15 inch deficit.
 
Shaggy said:
A local pond dropped so much the grass grew on the exposed dirt. Now newly exposed bottom is visible. Like you we get enough rain every 10 days or so to keep us from going full on desert but PGV is still running a 6.15 inch deficit.
Click to expand...
Yeah I mean I guess the bright side is we have some low chances of rain through the next 7 days 10-20% but there's nothing coming along that's going to give decent pops (maybe if we get lucky Saturday over performs along the sea breezs, mountains and piemont troughs). We are about to the point where we need a tropical system to offset the dry. It sucks the trough axis moved through this week and pushed the higher pwat air into SC. We could have done very well if it stayed flatter
 
Last edited:
SD said:
Probably just didn't do much. I've had a bunch of .33 .4 .6 type events and that's great to keep the grass green but it's not doing a lot for the water table when you are barely wetting through the root z
metwannabe said:
Interesting map, look at that other dry corridor in NE NC. I had 1.6 in June and 1.6 so far this month but according to the Weather Flow, 8.6 in July, which puts me over 11" for JJA. However, I noticed yesterday where my brother had some water lines put it (dug down over 24"), there was little to no soil moisture below the surface and most creeks are still low, ponds too. So, not sure if my PWS was off that much in August or thanks to the bookend dry months it didn't do much.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

I've had 3 rains since May that have totaled over 1". 2 of those were in brief thunderstorms lasting less than 45 minutes, so it just washed into the creeks.

But on a broader level, i think this is more how our yearly water cycle is. We typically dry out the subsurface moisture in the summer months, as intermittent rains like Summer thunderstorms dont have the ability to get water that deep. However, i believe we typically replensish the deeper moisture in the fall / Winter / Spring soaking rains. Repeated, slow, soaking rains during a time of low evapotranspiration is how we get moisture that deep.

I say that because this past fall / winter were dry at a time when we typically are rebuilding our water table.
1661440082413.png
1661440121067.png
1661440158764.png
 
smast16 said:
I've had 3 rains since May that have totaled over 1". 2 of those were in brief thunderstorms lasting less than 45 minutes, so it just washed into the creeks.

But on a broader level, i think this is more how our yearly water cycle is. We typically dry out the subsurface moisture in the summer months, as intermittent rains like Summer thunderstorms dont have the ability to get water that deep. However, i believe we typically replensish the deeper moisture in the fall / Winter / Spring soaking rains. Repeated, slow, soaking rains during a time of low evapotranspiration is how we get moisture that deep.

I say that because this past fall / winter were dry at a time when we typically are rebuilding our water table.
View attachment 120940
View attachment 120941
View attachment 120942
Click to expand...
Indeed. Our water year is 10/1-9/30 so we should theoretically be near our min now and max around 4/1
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top