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Pattern August '22

It is time for GSP to back farther off on pops in most of the CWA. Already down from 90% to 60%. The drought will be making a bigtime comeback in much of the Carolinas it seems as we go from summer into fall.
 
JHS said:
It is time for GSP to back farther off on pops in most of the CWA. Already down from 90% to 60%. The drought will be making a bigtime comeback in much of the Carolinas it seems as we go from summer into fall.
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I think that is a major stretch...yes, there are some dry areas, but this pattern does not scream drought by any means


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I got the Fever. The Friday Football Fever. After rooting daily for Rain on my garden the past several months. The day I'm willing to pass on the h2o, radar is looking like it might not cooperate over the next 9-10 hours.
 
WxGSO said:
I think that is a major stretch...yes, there are some dry areas, but this pattern does not scream drought by any means


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Shetley is always in drought. It's his default. He can have 3 feet of rainfall over a 2 hour period and think a Biblical megadrought is happening.
 
Let's also not forget that Sunday into Monday has higher end potential to be a very wet period with the upper trough inching closer and a few convectively induced vorts moving through interacting with a seasonably warm airmass with pwats around 2 inches.
 
metwannabe said:
Tbh if those totals pan out that's not "that much" lol. As wet as July was around here, August has flipped the switch, 10 days in with only .1, had to start back watering my garden yesterday. If the Euro is correct through entire run, 10 days from now on Aug. 20th some of us will still be sitting on either side of an inch. Most likely there will be larger totals sprinkled in of course, as globals obviously struggle with convection qpf
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Well tomorrow is the 20th and I'm sitting at 1.1
 
So all week Friday and Friday night was supposed to be big rain with possible flooding concerns. 0.02" for the day. I swear the forecasting ability of just about every meteorological outlet is going downhill. Can't wait for the next big wet period of Sunday evening - Monday.
 
Now we cooking with grease! 436CD2FA-9F1F-4E8E-A8D4-7D42EB57FAA4.png
 
smast16 said:
You'll have to excuse me while I become less and less enthusiastic about this next upcoming wet pattern.

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These models are terrible. No other way to put it. Can't wait for them to show a major hurricane landfall on the se coast 4 days out causing evacuations from Florida to NC only for it to end up in the gulf or either 300 miles offshore going ots
 
smast16 said:
You'll have to excuse me while I become less and less enthusiastic about this next upcoming wet pattern.

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Highest PWs stay off to the south and east, at least on the GFS anyway. Monday evening, you get a favorable juxtaposition of a couple of unimpressive jet streaks over the region and the air isn't dry. So it's possible that the model is underdoing its qpf. But the trend has been for the best rainfall to remain over souththern and eastern zones (in relation to the Triangle), so we'll see.
 
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Let’s discuss…B1800BF7-670E-43D4-9EAB-55F3FF1CB0B9.png181DF70E-92A9-4815-A343-BA7E2F2F2B51.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Highest PWs stay off to the south and east, at least on the GFS anyway. Monday evening, you get a favorable juxtaposition of a couple of unimpressive jet streaks over the region and the air isn't dry. So it's possible that the model is underdoing its qpf. But the trend has been for the best rainfall to remain over souththern and eastern zones (in relation to the Triangle), so we'll see.
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Rain is becoming like snow on the models

I'll believe it when it's all said and done.
 
Come to papa 3CBA5222-A22A-4AAD-876C-35FDD6A1411F.png ?
 
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