B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Was just getting ready to post this. RAH said the first round could keep the second round from being worse east of US 1. I wonder if that's still the case. Or maybe we'll just get one round now.
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Pattern Anaphylactic August
- Thread starter Tarheel1
- Start date
Was just getting ready to post this. RAH said the first round could keep the second round from being worse east of US 1. I wonder if that's still the case. Or maybe we'll just get one round now.
Yeah that line is really putting itself together. Im concerned that im a little too far south.
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
RAH updated their discussion. Sounds like they think there will still be two rounds of storms, with the second round being worse.
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1248 PM Wednesday...
The increasingly negatively tilted upper trough continues to buckle
as a series of mid level disturbances progress around its base,
further ejecting across the southern Middle Atlantic States. The
first of which, now sliding east through the foothills and western
Piedmont counties of NC, has begun to ignite convection via an old
MCS outflow boundary now sliding east across the eastern portions of
the Triad region as of 16z/12pm. With good mid to upper forcing now
accompanying this feature into a better destabilized environment
(characterized by 3500+ SB CAPE and 1500 - 2500 J/KG ML CAPE)
expecting this convection to increase in coverage and intensity as
it pushes east with time. With the presence of 30 - 35kt effective
bulk shear and high composite indices via the most recent
mesoanalysis, thinking the severe threat will increase quickly this
afternoon, especially as the storms approach and push east of the
Triangle region into the better DCAPE environment. With this batch,
damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters, embedded weak
supercells, and associated wet microbursts along with hail will
remain the primary hazard this afternoon/early evening. Secondary
threats include an isolated Tornado (primarily east of the Triangle
toward the VA border) along with pockets of heavy rainfall which
could lead to urban and small stream flooding. Luckily, the storms
should have some movement to them, keeping the Flash Flood threat
more isolated.
This evening/tonight, a secondary and more intense shortwave will
reach the apex of the trough, potentially spurring additional strong
to severe thunderstorms across central NC lasting well into the
overnight hours. Some uncertainty remains here, especially in
regards to how much instability remains after the first batch of
storms slide through the region. CAMs continue to do a poor job with
initiation this afternoon, so have little faith in their (likely
underdone) outcomes this evening. Thinking the best chance of some
strong lingering storms will be across the southern and western
zones, which to this point, seems that they may be spared from the
most widespread coverage from the first round of convection.
Convection should begin to diminish from west to east during the
overnight hours tonight as the true front enters in from the west.
Expect slowly clearing skies, some patchy fog formation, and
overnight temperatures to cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1248 PM Wednesday...
The increasingly negatively tilted upper trough continues to buckle
as a series of mid level disturbances progress around its base,
further ejecting across the southern Middle Atlantic States. The
first of which, now sliding east through the foothills and western
Piedmont counties of NC, has begun to ignite convection via an old
MCS outflow boundary now sliding east across the eastern portions of
the Triad region as of 16z/12pm. With good mid to upper forcing now
accompanying this feature into a better destabilized environment
(characterized by 3500+ SB CAPE and 1500 - 2500 J/KG ML CAPE)
expecting this convection to increase in coverage and intensity as
it pushes east with time. With the presence of 30 - 35kt effective
bulk shear and high composite indices via the most recent
mesoanalysis, thinking the severe threat will increase quickly this
afternoon, especially as the storms approach and push east of the
Triangle region into the better DCAPE environment. With this batch,
damaging wind gusts from multicell clusters, embedded weak
supercells, and associated wet microbursts along with hail will
remain the primary hazard this afternoon/early evening. Secondary
threats include an isolated Tornado (primarily east of the Triangle
toward the VA border) along with pockets of heavy rainfall which
could lead to urban and small stream flooding. Luckily, the storms
should have some movement to them, keeping the Flash Flood threat
more isolated.
This evening/tonight, a secondary and more intense shortwave will
reach the apex of the trough, potentially spurring additional strong
to severe thunderstorms across central NC lasting well into the
overnight hours. Some uncertainty remains here, especially in
regards to how much instability remains after the first batch of
storms slide through the region. CAMs continue to do a poor job with
initiation this afternoon, so have little faith in their (likely
underdone) outcomes this evening. Thinking the best chance of some
strong lingering storms will be across the southern and western
zones, which to this point, seems that they may be spared from the
most widespread coverage from the first round of convection.
Convection should begin to diminish from west to east during the
overnight hours tonight as the true front enters in from the west.
Expect slowly clearing skies, some patchy fog formation, and
overnight temperatures to cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
I'm not entirely sure that this initial band will have a huge negative impact on a second band. There is a good amount of lift and forcing approaching, we will only need a few hundred jkg of Cape
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Here comes the watch shortly
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BufordWX
Member
Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 071650Z - 071815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the afternoon
and evening. A watch is possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along a surface cold front
in central North Carolina. The airmass ahead of these storms is
already very unstable with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
and temperatures approaching 90 yielding MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500
J/kg. Mid-level flow around 40 knots will provide sufficient shear
for storm organization. Expect one or more multicell clusters/line
segments to move across eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia through the afternoon and early evening. While mid-level
lapse rates are quite weak (~ 6 C/km), expect storms to have some
hail threat given the expected storm organization in a very unstable
environment. Low-level flow will be a limiting factor to wind
damage, but internal thermodynamic processes in the hot and unstable
airmass will support downdrafts that will be capable of damaging
winds.
----. This will be a wake county specialWell, there goes my shot at getting a storm at the house.
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The southern end is wasting its time lol. Looks like I'll be in a meeting when this rolls through
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Thundering at the office in north Raleigh.
And here we gooooo......
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NCC069-083-127-181-185-072000-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0171.190807T1840Z-190807T2000Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Nash County in central North Carolina...
Warren County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Vance County in central North Carolina...
Halifax County in central North Carolina...
Franklin County in central North Carolina...
* Until 400 PM EDT
* At 239 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Littleton to 12 miles south of Warrenton to
Franklinton, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Louisburg, Warrenton, Halifax,
Franklinton, Dortches, Littleton, Kittrell and Red Oak.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
NCC069-083-127-181-185-072000-
/O.NEW.KRAH.SV.W.0171.190807T1840Z-190807T2000Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019
The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Nash County in central North Carolina...
Warren County in central North Carolina...
Southeastern Vance County in central North Carolina...
Halifax County in central North Carolina...
Franklin County in central North Carolina...
* Until 400 PM EDT
* At 239 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Littleton to 12 miles south of Warrenton to
Franklinton, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Roanoke Rapids, Louisburg, Warrenton, Halifax,
Franklinton, Dortches, Littleton, Kittrell and Red Oak.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Heavy rain here.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Storm came through pretty fast. Wonder if that's it until later on, and if the second round comes will it be stronger.
Not seeing what people are talking about this second round? No model support really
Missed again. Not sure why I expect anything different
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Not sure, but that's what RAH said.
I would love for the radar to look likethatI mean this looks like a classic SD/RC rain shield split job here .03 so far..... still one more shot incoming
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SD likes a green lawn. I'm just jealous and bitter. ?
Brent
Member
day 1 of the heat wave here... I'm already done lol
bring on fall
no real drought here either(we had a ton of rain in the spring and early summer which has up til now kept a lid on the heat) but August is our driest month so dry isn't really a surprise
bring on fall
no real drought here either(we had a ton of rain in the spring and early summer which has up til now kept a lid on the heat) but August is our driest month so dry isn't really a surprise
pcbjr
Member
May 20th to September 20th, I know just the place ... bring your mold gear ... and antihistamines ...
I've now had .06 in 15 days, not a drought but as SD said not wet either
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I think this week proves that teleconnections don't mean a whole lot in the Summer months.
We got a -NAO/+PNA right now and we're still seeing above average temps.
We got a -NAO/+PNA right now and we're still seeing above average temps.
pcbjr
Member
Ping ... Pong ...
That's brutal I've at least been able to put together a respectable but still below normal total over the last 2 weeks
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
SPC says there's still a threat for severe storms.
Mesoscale Discussion 1667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019
Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560...
Valid 071925Z - 072030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in watch 560.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed from northern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia. These storms will continue to move
east into an environment with around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective
shear around 35-40 knots per area VWPs will continue to support
storm organization. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates should
continue to limit the hail threat to only a few isolated reports.
RAX and AKQ VWP show weak flow below 4 km which is likely why severe
winds have also been somewhat limited up to this point. However,
sub-severe damaging winds remain a threat through the afternoon and
evening with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts from any
stronger storms.
Mesoscale Discussion 1667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019
Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560...
Valid 071925Z - 072030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in watch 560.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed from northern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia. These storms will continue to move
east into an environment with around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective
shear around 35-40 knots per area VWPs will continue to support
storm organization. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates should
continue to limit the hail threat to only a few isolated reports.
RAX and AKQ VWP show weak flow below 4 km which is likely why severe
winds have also been somewhat limited up to this point. However,
sub-severe damaging winds remain a threat through the afternoon and
evening with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts from any
stronger storms.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Mostly sunny here now. Setting the stage for another round of storms?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
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I doubt it. The spc mesoanalysis says there is a good amount of mlcape left over the area but any updraft that has tried to get going behind this lead wave and outflow boundary has died. Its going to take another strong wave to provide enough lift to overcome some subsidence and get things to fire up. Watch the I85 corridor over the next 1-2 hours to see what gets going there, if storms fire and start rolling east maybe we have a chance but I think the more likely scenario is a few isolated storms after dark with the best chance of that being along and south of the outflow from the early day storms
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