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Pattern Anaphylactic August
- Thread starter Tarheel1
- Start date
NAM certainly looks a little better for tomorrow, might even get a slight risk area...
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Too bad marginal and slight mean the same thing.
Getting a MCS feeling for tommorow, or at least a strong line of storms that develops along the lee trough, soundings are similar to that MCS back in June 20th, increased amounts of 0-1km/0-3km shear and around 30kts of deep layer shear, there is some hodo curvature aswell from the increase in low level shear, nam likely a little overdone but it’s a solid setup 
Too bad Its 348 hrs out
Thank god.
Slight risk for severe weather introduced for Northeast NC in latest day 2 update.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic into New England...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas on Wednesday. A belt of 25-35 kt of
mid-level southwesterly flow will be present ahead of this upper
trough, and will overspread much of these regions through the day.
At the surface, a lee trough should be present to the east of the
Appalachians, and storm development will probably focus along this
trough by the early to mid afternoon. Upper 60s to perhaps mid 70s
surface dewpoints will be present across the warm sector, and
diurnal heating should encourage surface temperatures to warm into
the 80s and perhaps lower 90s. MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg should
develop along/east of the lee trough. Around 25-35 kt of effective
bulk shear will be enough to organize thunderstorm updrafts, with
multicell clusters probably the dominant storm mode. Strong to
damaging winds appear to be the main threat as storms develop
eastward through the early evening.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic into New England...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas on Wednesday. A belt of 25-35 kt of
mid-level southwesterly flow will be present ahead of this upper
trough, and will overspread much of these regions through the day.
At the surface, a lee trough should be present to the east of the
Appalachians, and storm development will probably focus along this
trough by the early to mid afternoon. Upper 60s to perhaps mid 70s
surface dewpoints will be present across the warm sector, and
diurnal heating should encourage surface temperatures to warm into
the 80s and perhaps lower 90s. MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg should
develop along/east of the lee trough. Around 25-35 kt of effective
bulk shear will be enough to organize thunderstorm updrafts, with
multicell clusters probably the dominant storm mode. Strong to
damaging winds appear to be the main threat as storms develop
eastward through the early evening.
Probably not a chance of that verifying because it has a bullseye of wet right over the grumpy house in the upstate.?
pcbjr
Member
If only ...
The high today looks to be 93*F.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Whoa, this is pretty awesome. weathernerds.org gives you the GOES global lightning mapper (GLM) data overlaid w/ NEXRAD-level II radar data in real-time.
cd2play
Member
just picked up about 0.9" from a thunderstorm that blew through MIddle TN, lots of lightning and thunder.
New SPC day 1 outlook out and it has extended the marginal risk to include north MS, Al, and GA as well as a slight risk for most of central NC now.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
From the RAH discussion this morning. If we get some earlier storms, it might help us keep the second round from being too bad. At least for those east of US 1 in NC. Not sure if that means they think those west of US 1 are still going to get it worse later on or not.
Minor tweaks for the mid morning update this morning to better match
in-situ observations. Also some minor adjustment to the POP forecast
this afternoon, highlighting the two possible primary waves of
convection. The first will likely ignite between 12pm - 2pm across
the central and eastern Piedmont as a shortwave continues east
through the area. The second, likely more potent, will arrive later
tonight, crossing central NC between 6pm - Midnight, which should
have greater coverage and intensity in terms of Tstorms. Some
uncertainty with the second wave, as earlier convection could help
stabilize areas along and east of US-1.
Minor tweaks for the mid morning update this morning to better match
in-situ observations. Also some minor adjustment to the POP forecast
this afternoon, highlighting the two possible primary waves of
convection. The first will likely ignite between 12pm - 2pm across
the central and eastern Piedmont as a shortwave continues east
through the area. The second, likely more potent, will arrive later
tonight, crossing central NC between 6pm - Midnight, which should
have greater coverage and intensity in terms of Tstorms. Some
uncertainty with the second wave, as earlier convection could help
stabilize areas along and east of US-1.
Welp plenty of instability sb capes 2500-4000 over the area with mlcapes of 1500-2500. Starting to get decent CU development out front of the upper level system, let's see what we get over the next 90 minutes
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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Brick Tamland
Guest
So, the longer it takes the storms to develop for the first round, the better or worse the storms will be for the expected second round?
Latest update to the day 1 outlook has shifted the slight risk area slightly east in North Carolina.
...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina.
Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling.
...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina.
Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling.