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5/4-6 possible severe wx

Brad P. thought they would be issuing a tornado watch as well. So bizarre. I wonder if they will decrease the tornado threat on the next outlook.
 
ryan1234 said:
Brad P. thought they would be issuing a tornado watch as well. So bizarre. I wonder if they will decrease the tornado threat on the next outlook.
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For a majority of the watch area, hail and damaging winds are the main threat, south of the warm front where there’s enough instability to support storms, your hodographs are basically straight from the sfc up and that isn’t conducive to tors, it’s only an isolated area literally right on the front where tors may occur
 
66/57 at KCLT with overcast skies and a north wind at 6. Gonna have to press press [x] doubt on the warm front making it here and any surface based convection (& hence tors). Looks like exclusively a hail threat north of the SC border with some potential for damaging winds if non zero surface based cape is realized
 
The 5% tornado outlook is just basically the southern suburbs of Charlotte/Upstate now. Lot's of sun here though. Sitting at 72/68. It's amazing what difference a couple of miles make. I don't think I have ever seen that small of a 5% risk on any outlook.
 
ryan1234 said:
The 5% tornado outlook is just basically the southern suburbs of Charlotte/Upstate now. Lot's of sun here though. Sitting at 72/68. It's amazing what difference a couple of miles make. I don't think I have ever seen that small of a 5% risk on any outlook.
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And the sad part is they could be wrong....I have looked at three maybe four different radars and none of them are the same when you put them in future mode.
 
And now the sky is clear again. 71/58 now. Who knows what will happen here.
 
Phil said:
And the sad part is they could be wrong....I have looked at three maybe four different radars and none of them are the same when you put them in future mode.
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I hope not. If they are, let's hope it's bust in a good way. Because it feels really sticky outside here in Indian Trail.
 
Cadi40 said:
What's the timing with this? Are there multiple lines?
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The short range guidance isn’t doing well but several models indicate a second line developing on top of the NC/TN border near Mountain City, TN. And 1-3 clusters could sweep upstate SC anytime through midnight. Just from what I see on Tropical Tidbits.
 
ryan1234 said:
I hope not. If they are, let's hope it's bust in a good way. Because it feels really sticky outside here in Indian Trail.
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You're right...I cannot tell much about what's going to happen in Laurens SC we are at 84 now so I would imagine it's going to be pretty damn nasty when it does hit....Looks to me like the main energy is staying North but I don't know what I am looking at so?
 
Phil said:
You're right...I cannot tell much about what's going to happen in Laurens SC we are at 84 now so I would imagine it's going to be pretty damn nasty when it does hit....
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You may just far enough south to escape the brunt of these storms. They look to be training along the warm front. Little concerned as to what they do when they move closer to Charlotte where the boundary has pretty much set up. Looks to right along U.S. 74.
 
ryan1234 said:
You may just far enough south to escape the brunt of these storms. They look to be training along the warm front. Little concerned as to what they do when they move closer to Charlotte where the boundary has pretty much set up. Looks to right along U.S. 74.
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Well I was looking at the GFS over on Tropical Tidbits when I put it in motion looks all the yellows are staying North. Now showing the Low closer to the NC/SC line? Like I said I don't know what I am looking at.
 
Almost no wind right now. It's eerily calm and any wind we are getting is from the SW...
 
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