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5/4-6 possible severe wx

Does that increase the threat for Charlotte? I thought the greatest threat for severe was for areas along the boundary, not south of it.
 
I’m not saying this setup is basically like the last boundary setup, but the similarities are almost funny, heres ESRH with this compared to the last setup that produced that trio of sups
Last setup 7F854EB1-13CD-47AF-B4E3-189904BE89B4.jpeg
this setup B9D0C8F0-F31C-4EAE-A274-4E41BB81710D.jpeg
Now for CAPE
Last setup 0DB5562D-7985-4ECB-A55C-0EBA0666743C.jpeg
this setup E3487D6B-6507-4BFF-B215-47BCAC6BDA53.jpeg
 
This time, low level moisture is much better and less supportive of LP supercells, that’s the difference, and the reason why the tornado threat is higher
 
9419B10B-87ED-4528-B2ED-42F25AD29819.jpegI can see some severe storms further north than Charlotte too. Boone, NC went from 40s to 60s. Some guidance had hinted at the severe storms for the northern mountains and SPC has Boone, NC under a Slight Risk.
 
Full sunshine to the south of my house and above it, with a clear boundary of clouds just north.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think the forecast high here was 61.
Click to expand...

Yup this is their 715am update just 8 hours ago. They missed our temps by a minimum of 10 degrees.

There will be a large
range in temps across the area today with highs only expected
around 60 across northern sections to around 70 far southern
sections.
 
I don’t agree with Charlotte being ground zero. If we get some supercells they are going to be west across western NC into upstate SC. Charlotte appears to be far enough East to allow these storms to merge and lose some tornado threat but could still have hail/wind.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I don’t agree with Charlotte being ground zero. If we get some supercells they are going to be west across western NC into upstate SC. Charlotte appears to be far enough East to allow these storms to merge and lose some tornado threat but could still have hail/wind.
Click to expand...

That goes against what every other guidance is saying...
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I don’t agree with Charlotte being ground zero. If we get some supercells they are going to be west across western NC into upstate SC. Charlotte appears to be far enough East to allow these storms to merge and lose some tornado threat but could still have hail/wind.
Click to expand...

The hodographs aren't sufficiently backed however until near dusk when the storms approach Charlotte.
 
The nice line of storms in north Alabama may gain strength as it moves east


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Broken024 said:
I only follow bird guidance
Click to expand...
Well the new SPC meso discussion says same thing that discrete storm mode is likely only at the onset. I have seen some short range models that form a bow echo before reaching Charlotte. Tough call but I think it’s premature to call Charlotte ground zero since it’s located fairly Far East if the onset is well west of Asheville NC.
 
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