David M.
Member
The first thought I had seeing this morning's Day 2 was how similar it looked to what they put out for 3/3/19, the day of the Beauregard EF-4.
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Severe 4/4-4/6 Severe Threat
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
bigstick10
Member
Wow, some very strong wording for the Atlanta Region.
Day 1 outlook:
SPC AC 040501
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist today
across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very
large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough, noted late Sunday night in water-vapor
imagery over southern California, will continue to migrate east
across the Southern Plains later today. Modest height falls aloft
will support weak cyclogenesis across northwest to north TX by mid
to late afternoon along a stalled front. Richer boundary-layer
moisture via 60-65 F dewpoints (currently noted along the TX Gulf
coast) will continue to advect northward through the day. Storms are
expected to develop in the afternoon and grow upscale as they move
into the lower MS River Valley overnight.
...Central to Northwest TX...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop around peak heating in the
vicinity of the surface low and front. Elongated hodographs above 3
km and off-boundary storm motions should support a few initially
discrete cells. The degree of low-level cloud cover (implied by
latest guidance) and lingering inhibition by late afternoon casts
some uncertainty into storm coverage - especially south of the
surface low along the front and into south TX - but the combination
of 8-9 C/km lapse rates and strong flow aloft will support the
potential for significant hail with more isolated supercells.
Continued lift in the vicinity of the low will foster gradual
upscale growth with a corresponding increase in damaging gusts as
the low shifts into northeast TX.
...Arklatex region to the lower MS River Valley...
The surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it shifts east
towards the Arklatex region in tandem with the upper wave. In
response, southerly 850 mb flow will increase, fostering increased
low-level ascent that will aid in organizing an MCS across the
Arklatex region into the lower MS River Valley. Scattered damaging
winds are probable with more intense bowing segments, and enlarged
low-level hodographs may support a few QLCS tornadoes overnight.
...South Florida...
Winds will gradually turn more southerly through the day as a
diffuse warm front lifts north through the state. This will allow
widespread 65-75 F dewpoints to overspread south FL and support
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon. Little to no inhibition will
allow thunderstorm development along sea-breeze boundaries. Despite
meager hodograph structure, effective bulk shear values near 30
knots may support a few robust storms that could pose a hail/wind
risk.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/04/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1215Z (8:15AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 040501
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist today
across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very
large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough, noted late Sunday night in water-vapor
imagery over southern California, will continue to migrate east
across the Southern Plains later today. Modest height falls aloft
will support weak cyclogenesis across northwest to north TX by mid
to late afternoon along a stalled front. Richer boundary-layer
moisture via 60-65 F dewpoints (currently noted along the TX Gulf
coast) will continue to advect northward through the day. Storms are
expected to develop in the afternoon and grow upscale as they move
into the lower MS River Valley overnight.
...Central to Northwest TX...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop around peak heating in the
vicinity of the surface low and front. Elongated hodographs above 3
km and off-boundary storm motions should support a few initially
discrete cells. The degree of low-level cloud cover (implied by
latest guidance) and lingering inhibition by late afternoon casts
some uncertainty into storm coverage - especially south of the
surface low along the front and into south TX - but the combination
of 8-9 C/km lapse rates and strong flow aloft will support the
potential for significant hail with more isolated supercells.
Continued lift in the vicinity of the low will foster gradual
upscale growth with a corresponding increase in damaging gusts as
the low shifts into northeast TX.
...Arklatex region to the lower MS River Valley...
The surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it shifts east
towards the Arklatex region in tandem with the upper wave. In
response, southerly 850 mb flow will increase, fostering increased
low-level ascent that will aid in organizing an MCS across the
Arklatex region into the lower MS River Valley. Scattered damaging
winds are probable with more intense bowing segments, and enlarged
low-level hodographs may support a few QLCS tornadoes overnight.
...South Florida...
Winds will gradually turn more southerly through the day as a
diffuse warm front lifts north through the state. This will allow
widespread 65-75 F dewpoints to overspread south FL and support
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon. Little to no inhibition will
allow thunderstorm development along sea-breeze boundaries. Despite
meager hodograph structure, effective bulk shear values near 30
knots may support a few robust storms that could pose a hail/wind
risk.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/04/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1215Z (8:15AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Hold up, wind shear increased for the afternoon risk wensday ?
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Not to shabby of a sounding over central Alabama wensday ?. Lot of dry air aloft.
This is what you call a loaded gun sounding.
Makes me wonder if wensday will be more tornadic than Tuesday. Let's wait until HRRR gets in range, I'm actually kinda impressed.
But in general your damaging wind risk is the biggest issue with these storms I think.
This is what you call a loaded gun sounding.
Makes me wonder if wensday will be more tornadic than Tuesday. Let's wait until HRRR gets in range, I'm actually kinda impressed.
But in general your damaging wind risk is the biggest issue with these storms I think.
SPC has a 30% hatched risk area in the latest Day 1 Outlook, which stops just short of a moderate risk.
Last edited:
While a nice sounding, that'a not a loaded gun.
Loaded gun soundings usually have a *WIDE* temp/dewpoint spread at the surface, very steep low-level lapse rates, high DCAPE and high 3km CAPE.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Lol for the southeast it is lol, I know I'm Texas y'all get a whole nother beast when y'all get loaded guns lol
Oh yes, that's true, lol.
The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool, and does suggest it could track pretty far eastward overnight / tomorrow morning intact.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Feeling some deja Vu derecho 2.0 lol.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Oh great.. So we're doing that again? ?
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Lol this time the brunt will be into the southern half of the state lol no worries ?
NoSnowATL
Member
Typical type spring system incoming.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
12z HRRR is bullish as well like some of the previous runs on discreet convection along that warm front in south Alabama.
Lol.
NoSnowATL
Member
This one has my attention but if history repeats itself probably will be a dud. These 2-3 round events just never work out for my area. My guess south of I-20 has the best shot at spinners . Local Mets aren’t really hyping this thing so it gives me pause.
One thing that has caught my eye is that models are showing convection developing over south/central GA early to mid afternoon which could serve to cut off the instability before the best lift/shear arrives.
FFC also mentioned it in the afd as a possible failure mode for Wednesday. Typically that is a common way the severe threats are mitigated up there.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see the higher severe probs pulled northward by SPC into at least SE NC
I've noticed this too. Storms are forming along the residual cold pool/outflow boundary from Tuesday's mess (and that's what it looks like to me- a mess) and that could really choke off the instability/moisture transport needed for a decent severe weather event. Sure does look like the main risk as of now is a skinny line along the front.
Thursday could be mildly intriguing for the east coastal plain if surface winds can take a little more of an easterly component and everything slows down by a hair.