The GFS in the past few days has been barking at this.
Western Alabama.
Western Alabama.
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Severe 4/4-4/6 Severe Threat
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Thermodynamics don't look to be short from a quick look at that sounding ?The GFS in the past few days has been barking at this.
Western Alabama.
Euro is very tricky in this period. That look around the 5th is close to something pretty big. Gotta watch the 6-7th as well.
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Zander98al
Guest
The south keeps messing around with these severe threats, were eventually going to get a big one, from playing with fire for too long.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Definitely still have to watch this period, a ton of moving pieces here.
GFS is more of a dry line type deal. That would be different.
GFS is more of a dry line type deal. That would be different.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Decent sub 1000mb low with very good moisture. Always something to watch in the spring
Euro isn’t far from something really nasty from extreme north AL through Kentucky. It keeps the first system much weaker and the atmosphere is better for the main following trough.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
...Day 4/Monday - Central/Eastern TX into Western LA...
A mid/upper trough is forecast to shift east from the southwestern
U.S./northern Mexico to OK/TX. A stalled front is forecast to extend
from northwest TX to the Lower OH Valley early Monday. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across
central/east TX and the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast. As the
western trough ejects eastward, a weak surface low is forecast to
develop over TX and shift east toward AR/LA. While uncertainty
exists in the northward extent of better moisture transport, a
corridor of moderate instability amid 40+ kt effective shear will
exist from central TX into western LA. Strong to severe
thunderstorms, including supercells, will be possible from
central/eastern TX into western LA. All severe hazards will be
possible.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
The positive-tilt mid/upper trough extending from the Ozark Plateau
into TX will shift east/northeast across the TN Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic. A strong warm advection regime will exist across the
lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states as enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow overspreads the region. There is some uncertainty
in how much destabilization will occur as clouds and widespread
rainfall could envelop much of the area. However, ensemble guidance
indicates at least pockets of modest destabilization within a
strongly sheared environment, as a weak surface low lifts northeast
from AR/LA to the central Appalachians through the evening hours.
This should support at least isolated severe potential.
...Day 6/Wednesday - TN Valley/southern Appalachians Vicinity...
A deep upper low and associated intense upper trough over the
Plains/Upper Midwest will develop eastward across much of the
central U.S. A strong cold front is forecast to advance
east/southeast across the southern and central U.S. Ensemble
guidance indicates adequate moisture will reside ahead of the front
across the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians with
temperatures warming into the mid 70s to low 80s. Strong deep-layer
shear, mainly parallel to the surface boundary will support
potential QLCS development and an attendant damaging wind threat
across portions of the region.
A mid/upper trough is forecast to shift east from the southwestern
U.S./northern Mexico to OK/TX. A stalled front is forecast to extend
from northwest TX to the Lower OH Valley early Monday. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across
central/east TX and the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast. As the
western trough ejects eastward, a weak surface low is forecast to
develop over TX and shift east toward AR/LA. While uncertainty
exists in the northward extent of better moisture transport, a
corridor of moderate instability amid 40+ kt effective shear will
exist from central TX into western LA. Strong to severe
thunderstorms, including supercells, will be possible from
central/eastern TX into western LA. All severe hazards will be
possible.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
The positive-tilt mid/upper trough extending from the Ozark Plateau
into TX will shift east/northeast across the TN Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic. A strong warm advection regime will exist across the
lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states as enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow overspreads the region. There is some uncertainty
in how much destabilization will occur as clouds and widespread
rainfall could envelop much of the area. However, ensemble guidance
indicates at least pockets of modest destabilization within a
strongly sheared environment, as a weak surface low lifts northeast
from AR/LA to the central Appalachians through the evening hours.
This should support at least isolated severe potential.
...Day 6/Wednesday - TN Valley/southern Appalachians Vicinity...
A deep upper low and associated intense upper trough over the
Plains/Upper Midwest will develop eastward across much of the
central U.S. A strong cold front is forecast to advance
east/southeast across the southern and central U.S. Ensemble
guidance indicates adequate moisture will reside ahead of the front
across the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians with
temperatures warming into the mid 70s to low 80s. Strong deep-layer
shear, mainly parallel to the surface boundary will support
potential QLCS development and an attendant damaging wind threat
across portions of the region.
I am unsure of the accuracy but this model has painted a pretty good picture for the last couple events
As fro mentioned, the GFS uptrended around the 0z suite. Interesting to see if it does it again at the 12z suite.
This is the first severe threat that's really going to move into a relatively hot air mass but moisture return may be lacking.
GFS about to back off pretty bigly on Wednesday per H5
Nvm the previous system seemed to have limited moisture return more but still solid cape on Wednesday
Brick Tamland
Member
Z
Zander98al
Guest
That Tuesday threat looks gnarly for south Alabama,
Very good directional shear your biggest caveat is probably instability.
Very good directional shear your biggest caveat is probably instability.
accu35
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So south Bama gonna get it rough again?