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Severe 4/4-4/6 Severe Threat

Cbmatt2408 said:
Sweet, here in LaGrange, GA, we are both south of BHAM and North of Montgomery. We get to be in both circles. This does have the feel of one of those systems that produces one renegade supercell that goes on for like 3 hours.
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The first thought I had seeing this morning's Day 2 was how similar it looked to what they put out for 3/3/19, the day of the Beauregard EF-4.
 
Day 1 outlook:

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SPC AC 040501

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist today
across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through tonight. Damaging wind gusts, large to very
large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough, noted late Sunday night in water-vapor
imagery over southern California, will continue to migrate east
across the Southern Plains later today. Modest height falls aloft
will support weak cyclogenesis across northwest to north TX by mid
to late afternoon along a stalled front. Richer boundary-layer
moisture via 60-65 F dewpoints (currently noted along the TX Gulf
coast) will continue to advect northward through the day. Storms are
expected to develop in the afternoon and grow upscale as they move
into the lower MS River Valley overnight.

...Central to Northwest TX...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop around peak heating in the
vicinity of the surface low and front. Elongated hodographs above 3
km and off-boundary storm motions should support a few initially
discrete cells. The degree of low-level cloud cover (implied by
latest guidance) and lingering inhibition by late afternoon casts
some uncertainty into storm coverage - especially south of the
surface low along the front and into south TX - but the combination
of 8-9 C/km lapse rates and strong flow aloft will support the
potential for significant hail with more isolated supercells.
Continued lift in the vicinity of the low will foster gradual
upscale growth with a corresponding increase in damaging gusts as
the low shifts into northeast TX.

...Arklatex region to the lower MS River Valley...
The surface low is forecast to gradually deepen as it shifts east
towards the Arklatex region in tandem with the upper wave. In
response, southerly 850 mb flow will increase, fostering increased
low-level ascent that will aid in organizing an MCS across the
Arklatex region into the lower MS River Valley. Scattered damaging
winds are probable with more intense bowing segments, and enlarged
low-level hodographs may support a few QLCS tornadoes overnight.

...South Florida...
Winds will gradually turn more southerly through the day as a
diffuse warm front lifts north through the state. This will allow
widespread 65-75 F dewpoints to overspread south FL and support
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon. Little to no inhibition will
allow thunderstorm development along sea-breeze boundaries. Despite
meager hodograph structure, effective bulk shear values near 30
knots may support a few robust storms that could pose a hail/wind
risk.

..Moore/Smith.. 04/04/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1215Z (8:15AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
 
Hold up, wind shear increased for the afternoon risk wensday ?
 
Not to shabby of a sounding over central Alabama wensday ?. Lot of dry air aloft.

This is what you call a loaded gun sounding.

Makes me wonder if wensday will be more tornadic than Tuesday. Let's wait until HRRR gets in range, I'm actually kinda impressed.

But in general your damaging wind risk is the biggest issue with these storms I think.

2022040406_NAM_060_33.59,-88.1_severe_ml.png
 
SPC has a 30% hatched risk area in the latest Day 1 Outlook, which stops just short of a moderate risk.
 
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Zander98al said:
Not to shabby of a sounding over central Alabama wensday ?. Lot of dry air aloft.

This is what you call a loaded gun sounding.

Makes me wonder if wensday will be more tornadic than Tuesday. Let's wait until HRRR gets in range, I'm actually kinda impressed.

But in general your damaging wind risk is the biggest issue with these storms I think.

View attachment 116734
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While a nice sounding, that'a not a loaded gun.

Loaded gun soundings usually have a *WIDE* temp/dewpoint spread at the surface, very steep low-level lapse rates, high DCAPE and high 3km CAPE.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
While a nice sounding, that'a not a loaded gun.

Loaded gun soundings usually have a *WIDE* temp/dewpoint spread at the surface, very steep low-level lapse rates, high DCAPE and high 3km CAPE.
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Lol for the southeast it is lol, I know I'm Texas y'all get a whole nother beast when y'all get loaded guns lol
 
NorthDFWwx said:
SPC has a 30% hatched risk area in the latest Day 1 Outlook, which stops just short of a moderate risk.
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The SPC's discussion even mentions the potential of hurricane force winds with the MCS as it develops a cold pool, and does suggest it could track pretty far eastward overnight / tomorrow morning intact.
 
12z HRRR is bullish as well like some of the previous runs on discreet convection along that warm front in south Alabama.
 
NoSnowATL said:
This one has my attention but if history repeats itself probably will be a dud. These 2-3 round events just never work out for my area. My guess south of I-20 has the best shot at spinners . Local Mets aren’t really hyping this thing so it gives me pause.

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One thing that has caught my eye is that models are showing convection developing over south/central GA early to mid afternoon which could serve to cut off the instability before the best lift/shear arrives.

FFC also mentioned it in the afd as a possible failure mode for Wednesday. Typically that is a common way the severe threats are mitigated up there.
 
I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see the higher severe probs pulled northward by SPC into at least SE NC
 
BufordWX said:
One thing that has caught my eye is that models are showing convection developing over south/central GA early to mid afternoon which could serve to cut off the instability before the best lift/shear arrives.

FFC also mentioned it in the afd as a possible failure mode for Wednesday. Typically that is a common way the severe threats are mitigated up there.
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I've noticed this too. Storms are forming along the residual cold pool/outflow boundary from Tuesday's mess (and that's what it looks like to me- a mess) and that could really choke off the instability/moisture transport needed for a decent severe weather event. Sure does look like the main risk as of now is a skinny line along the front.

Thursday could be mildly intriguing for the east coastal plain if surface winds can take a little more of an easterly component and everything slows down by a hair.
 
BufordWX said:
One thing that has caught my eye is that models are showing convection developing over south/central GA early to mid afternoon which could serve to cut off the instability before the best lift/shear arrives.

FFC also mentioned it in the afd as a possible failure mode for Wednesday. Typically that is a common way the severe threats are mitigated up there.
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I'm leaning towards fail...we always seemed to be saved by a wedge or daytime heating issues. Not mad about that either.
 
Hatched area should include most of south Alabama not just the east half.20220404_124552.jpg
 
Seems a bit of clearing is trying to happen, which should help woth surface destablization.

That said, seems some weak showers are trying to percolate to the west of the Metroplex. They're not really blowing up into t'storms or a complex, but could continue percolating just enough to hamper stronger heating as they move ENE.
 
Another hamper to tommorows threat is if discreet convection fires in front of the warm sector instead of behind, if that's the case everything will be mainly elevated, I think you could have a significant tornado or two if storms fire behind the warm front. Haven't checked LL lapse rates though probably still very meager lol.

But with the large Enchanced significant risk area across the southern portions of Georgia and Alabama I think the NWS doesn't think thatll be a issue.

Don't be surprised for a upgrade to moderate for wind damage BTW. Likely will have a upgrade due to the significant QCLS.
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northwest TX and far
southern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 041916Z - 042145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds,
and perhaps a tornado or two will increase this afternoon and
evening. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface observations show a nearly stationary front
across parts of northwest TX into far south-central OK. The warm
sector along and south/east of this boundary continues to
destabilize this afternoon, with surface temperatures reaching into
the 70s and low 80s, and dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to low
60s. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km have overspread
this region, and they are contributing to upwards of 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE as of 19Z. Additional diurnal heating and gradually cooling
mid-level temperatures as an upper trough ejects over the southern
Plains should allow MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg to develop across
parts of northwest/north-central TX over the next few hours.

Recent visible satellite imagery shows gradually deepening
thunderstorms along and just behind the front in northwest TX, along
with mid-level convection farther east over the open warm sector. As
substantial convective inhibition continues to erode (see 18Z FWD
sounding), and modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector
this afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to form along
the front. Deep-layer shear of 35-50 kt will likely support
supercells with this initial activity. Isolated large hail should be
the main threat with this convection through the early evening,
although some damaging winds could occur as well. Given the presence
of steep mid-level lapse rates, some very large (2+ inches) hail
appears possible.

With time this evening, thunderstorms will likely grow upscale into
a bowing cluster across north-central TX and far south-central OK as
weak low-level southerly flow gradually increases. Damaging winds
will become increasingly probable as this mode transition occurs.
The tornado threat through the rest of the afternoon should remain
fairly marginal given modest low-level shear (see recent VWPs from
KDYX/KFWS). Still, a threat for a tornado or two may gradually
increase this evening, mainly after 01Z, as low-level shear slowly
strengthens. Regardless, the overall severe threat along/south of
the front this afternoon will likely warrant watch issuance in the
next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31589970 32159991 33029988 33739956 34209908 34409842
34429774 34349692 33839687 33339718 32139816 31499876
31359924 31589970
 
NoSnowJoe said:
From Glenn Burns…Our new models are now depicting a few supercell thunderstorms moving in before the main squall line. Will have to monitor for possible long-track tornadoes tomorrow from late morning on.
View attachment 116742
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I’m just not seeing that tornado threat for northern GA tomorrow. There’s going to be very little if any surface based instability with tomorrows round of storms in northern GA. If anything I could see some elevated hail producing storms or strong winds, but any tornado threat or significant tornado threat will be in southern half of GA IMO.
 
BufordWX said:
I’m just not seeing that tornado threat for northern GA tomorrow. There’s going to be very little if any surface based instability with tomorrows round of storms in northern GA. If anything I could see some elevated hail producing storms or strong winds, but any tornado threat or significant tornado threat will be in southern half of GA IMO.
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Agreed, they're cells ahead of the warm front likely.
 
Man I gotta do a analysis of the weather situation for tommorow things are looking dicey.

Big boom possible for severe/ tornado chances. That surface low posistion and everything reminds me abit of beurgard setup, but doubt it will be anything like that. You'll have a few significant tornadoes south of that warm front though, backed winds will be nasty.
 
Zander98al said:
Man I gotta do a analysis of the weather situation for tommorow things are looking dicey.

Big boom possible for severe/ tornado chances. That surface low posistion and everything reminds me abit of beurgard setup, but doubt it will be anything like that. You'll have a few significant tornadoes south of that warm front though, backed winds will be nasty.
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The latest HRRR is still suggesting tonight's squall line is going to make a mess of tomorrow's setup.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
The latest HRRR is still suggesting tonight's squall line is going to make a mess of tomorrow's setup.
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That's why there's potential for a boom, depending on how the mesoscale features play out tommorow.
 
And here we go...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC155-275-042030-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0061.220404T1947Z-220404T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Norman OK
247 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Foard County in northern Texas...
Northwestern Knox County in northern Texas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 247 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles southeast
of Guthrie, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
Benjamin, Gilliland and Truscott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 9986 3371 9950 3342 9999 3383 10000
3384 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 228DEG 34KT 3352 10009

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Zwink
 
For the GSP area I would not be surprised if Wednesday misses, because they now say it'll be around midnight tomorrow night before things clear out from the 1st system and drier air moves in. Once that drier air is here I do not see it moving out in time for round 2. I can see us getting wedged in again, especially if rain moves in early.
 
Maybe just my imagination, or is this system for early tommorow slowing down a good bit or what? Looks like HRRR has slowed it down atleast 5-6 hours.
 
JHS said:
For the GSP area I would not be surprised if Wednesday misses, because they now say it'll be around midnight tomorrow night before things clear out from the 1st system and drier air moves in. Once that drier air is here I do not see it moving out in time for round 2. I can see us getting wedged in again, especially if rain moves in early.
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Hope your right but definitely not what short range models show. I think I minimum you get a QLCS type line move through with damaging winds. But I could be wrong


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Cbmatt2408 said:
Sweet, here in LaGrange, GA, we are both south of BHAM and North of Montgomery. We get to be in both circles. This does have the feel of one of those systems that produces one renegade supercell that goes on for like 3 hours.
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That is not Sweet! I live here too! No thank you! Did you have debris from Alabama in your yard after Arpr 27???? I did!!! No thanks to anything like !
 
Zander98al said:
Maybe just my imagination, or is this system for early tommorow slowing down a good bit or what? Looks like HRRR has slowed it down atleast 5-6 hours.
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You're seeing things right. I noticed it too. It's turned into an entirely after dark event for DFW now.
 
upstatewx said:
Hope your right but definitely not what short range models show. I think I minimum you get a QLCS type line move through with damaging winds. But I could be wrong


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Yeah if this system slows down a few hours better moisture could get in for sure and that would cause problems. It absolutely bears watching. And IF we do get a wedge boundary because of the dry air that will be trouble for someone. Best chance would be for Anderson to Union and south I think.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
You're seeing things right. I noticed it too. It's turned into an entirely after dark event for DFW now.
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Well that's no bueno you don't need any more help in the enchaned area than we already have lol. that's another kink thrown into this mess.
 
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