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Severe 4/4-4/6 Severe Threat

Monday's outlook has been shifted a bit further NW into far southern OK, and a broad 5% tornado risk area has been added (including DFW):

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SPC AC 030556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large
hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

...OK/TX/ArkLaTex...

A somewhat broad, and neutral to positive-tilt upper trough over the
southwestern U.S. will develop eastward to the Ozarks/Sabine Valley
vicinity by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel
southwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/eastern TX into
the Lower MS Valley. Additionally, a south/southwesterly low-level
jet will increase to around 40-50 kt during the evening and
overnight across eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. The evolution
of surface pattern appears somewhat messy and uncertain. A stalled
front will reside from northwest TX into central OK and the Mid-MS
Valley early in the period. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing
along this boundary Monday morning across OK and far north TX. This
activity should spread eastward or dissipate through the morning,
but steep midlevel lapse rates could allow for some marginal hail.

Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward
through the day, with 60s surface dewpoints as far north as the Red
River/far southern OK possible by afternoon. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints may make it as far north as I-20. Coupled with steep
midlevel lapse rates, moderate destabilization is expected despite
somewhat modest diurnal heating. An EML/capping around 850-700 mb
will likely limit thunderstorm activity for much of the day across
TX. By early evening, a weak low is forecast to develop over
northwest TX and a cold front will shift east across OK/north TX to
the ArkLaTex overnight. Initial supercells are possible in the
vicinity of the surface low and southward along the cold
front/dryline composite. While storms maintain discrete mode, large
hail and damaging gusts will be possible across north/central TX.
However, it is unclear how long discrete cells may be maintained. An
increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface
boundary suggests upscale development into a QLCS is likely.
Nevertheless, favorable low-level shear will exist and support
mesovortex formation within any line that develops. Damaging gusts
and a few tornadoes appear possible across parts of north/east TX
into the ArkLaTex during the evening/nighttime hours.
 
Today's risk area has also been expanded a bit:

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SPC AC 030521

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southwest
Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of
strong storms are also possible across the southern Florida
Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a prominent upper-level
shortwave trough transversing the Great Lakes region, with a pair of
weaker disturbances noted over the northern Rockies and approaching
the southern CA coast. A weak surface low over the upper OH River
Valley will migrate into the Northeast through the day while a lee
cyclone over the northern High Plains will shift into the Plains by
this evening. A lee trough/dryline will mix eastward into the Plains
through the afternoon in tandem with the northern High Plains low.
The combination of the falling surface pressure across the western
Plains and a modest lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will
strengthen southeasterly flow off the TX Gulf coast, spreading 50-55
F dewpoints into west TX and southwestern OK by late afternoon.

...Southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas...
Thunderstorm development appears likely in the vicinity of a weak
surface low and along the surface trough/dryline, from southeast
NM/west TX into western OK around peak heating. The observed
Saturday evening Midland, TX RAOB reveals a dry boundary layer with
around 7 C/km lapse rates aloft, which should be maintained through
the day as weak broad scale ascent ahead of the CA wave steepens
lapse rates. Initial storms are forecast to develop in a
steep-lapse-rate environment, which may support a few dry
microbursts across southwest TX. Loosely organized convection will
move east by late afternoon/early evening into richer boundary-layer
moisture as flow aloft strengthens. Consequently, the risk for large
hail will accompany the more intense updrafts. Into the overnight
hours, waning instability will diminish the severe potential.
 
STP almost maxed out over south Alabama for the day 3 threat.
 
Latest Day 1 outlook was shrunken a bit and shifted ever so slightly SW:

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SPC AC 031620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are most likely across parts of
southwest Oklahoma into west Texas, centered on 5 to 10 PM CDT. A
couple of strong to marginally severe storms are also possible
across southeast Florida.

...Southwest OK to west TX...
As a triple-point cyclone becomes established near KCDS, isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the early evening just
ahead of this low in southwest OK and to the south-southwest of a
wavy dryline towards the Lower Pecos Valley of west TX. A deep
well-mixed boundary layer is expected near the dryline as surface
temperatures warm through the mid 80s to low 90s. Modified moisture
return will be limited to upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points,
yielding a confined plume of modest buoyancy with 600-1200 J/kg
MLCAPE amid steep lapse rates. Effective bulk shear increasing to
around 40 kts near the triple point should foster a threat for a
couple high-based supercells. Otherwise, more muted deep-layer shear
along the dryline should tend to favor transient supercell/multicell
structures. Isolated severe wind gusts appear to be the most
probable hazard, but a few severe hail events are also possible. The
severe threat will wane after dusk as MLCIN rapidly increases given
the relatively dry boundary layer, despite elevated convection
likely increasing tonight in vicinity of the surface frontal zone
across OK.
 
As I sort of suspected would happen, there's now a broad enhanced risk area (including DFW) on the Day 2 outlook.
 
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SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large
hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

...Central and northern Texas/southern Oklahoma east-southeastward
to Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
An upper trough is forecast to advance out of Desert
Southwest/southern Rockies into the central and southern Plains
Monday, supporting weak surface low pressure development over North
Texas. As this occurs, a cold front is forecast to advance
southward across the Panhandle and South Plains region, gradually
overtaking a dryline across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau area.


Ongoing/elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start
of the period from western North Texas/Oklahoma east-northeastward
across the Ozarks vicinity, in a zone of warm advection north of a
warm front, expected to lie across northern Texas and into the lower
Mississippi Valley. As this boundary gradually shifts northward
toward the Red River Valley as the low develops, heating/moistening
of the warm sector will result in moderate destabilization, though
much of the warm sector will remain capped into the afternoon.

Eventually, ascent near the dryline/front, and the low itself,
should foster surface-based storm development -- perhaps as far west
as the Concho Valley depending upon the location of the surface
frontal advance. Initial storms will likely become supercells --
aided by favorably veering flow with height, and thus potential for
all-hazards severe weather will evolve locally.

With time, storms are expected to cluster together across the
north-central Texas vicinity, with upscale growth likely during the
evening as a strong southerly low-level jet develops. As the jet
increases/veers, and increasingly strong southwesterlies spread atop
the area, a well-organized -- eventually bowing -- MCS may evolve.
CAM guidance suggests this evolution, which would then shift quickly
east-southeastward across northeastern Texas through the evening and
eventually parts of northern and central Louisiana overnight,
reaching southwestern Mississippi late in the period. As such,
potential for a more widespread wind event is evident, supporting an
upgrade to 30% wind probability/ENH categorical risk. Along with
the wind potential, large hail will be possible locally. Some
tornado risk is also evident -- both with QLCS-type circulations
embedded in the linear convection, as well as with any
isolated/supercell storms which may evolve in advance of the MCS.

..Goss.. 04/03/2022

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1821Z (2:21PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
 
I've looked at all the Hi-Res models, and they all show the entire Metroplex getting hit pretty good tomorrow evening. It's the first time since I moved here that I've seen such a consensus.

Not a clean setup (synoptically-speaking), but could still deliver.
 
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How stupid, model trends are starting to show a derecho for the southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama now.

With accompanying prefrontal supercells.
 
Zander98al said:
How stupid, model trends are starting to show a derecho for the southern parts of Mississippi and Alabama now.

With accompanying prefrontal supercells.
Click to expand...

The upper level winds are definitely be supportive of a long track QLCS from whatever develops here in North Texas tomorrow, especially if a cold pool develops.

The question will be how far north the instability gets. Corfidi Vectors suggest more of a ENE track, but the instability gradient seems it will set up across Southern MS to Southern AL (thus suggesting a more SE track).
 
NorthDFWwx said:
The upper level winds are definitely be supportive of a long track QLCS from whatever develops here in North Texas tomorrow, especially if a cold pool develops.

The question will be how far north the instability gets. Corfidi Vectors suggest more of a ENE track, but the instability gradient seems it will set up across Southern MS to Southern AL (thus suggesting a more SE track).
Click to expand...
No way instability makes it further north than Birmingham. Your discrete cells look to ride the warm front. With these type of lows your lucky to see a quality warm sector 100 miles north of the gulf. Low posistioning favors your far south Alabama for tornadoes.
 
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night might be the first actual severe threat of the year for N GA.

The amount of instability being modeled is quite impressive for the area, although shear is a question mark right now. IMO a wind and hail threat would be evident with at least a isolated tornado threat.

Certainly something to watch. I’m curious to see what anyone else thinks.
 
Depending on how fast the 1st wave moves through in Alabama and Mississippi you could have substantial moisture return into central Alabama.
 
Normally night time setups suck, but the euro has over 2000 jkgs of MUcape, very impressive for nighttime in April (embedded in a EML plume) and has a whole Lee trough with a Convective response… in the middle of the night, would likely be a damaging wind threat with large amounts of dry air aloft and moderate MLCAPE/steep mid level lapse rates EF04F163-173C-40E1-83AA-CE03320467A3.pngAC2A7AA2-F1E6-4D80-B66E-2AB227EB06BD.png
 
Speaking for NE Georgia upstate SC this could be similar to Seneca Tornado. The STPs appear really high and supportive of a strong tornado somewhere.


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