Is the only time we get convection in NC early morning or overnight?
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Severe 4/4-4/6 Severe Threat
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
I have to travel to Beaufort SC tomorrow....could finally see a storm!
njbarrineau
Member
How accurate is the NAM this far out? Some of the numbers from the Upstate on Wednesday night have caught my attention today.
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It usually gets more accurate around 48 hours.
How accurate is the NAM this far out? Some of the numbers from the Upstate on Wednesday night have caught my attention today.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Good grief 00z HRRR really has some nasty supercells across south Alabama along the warm front Tuesday morning. Broad open warm sector in south Alabama with multiple supercells. What do you think about south Alabama threat arc? @Arcc
*Just took a further look seems like most are elevated lol unless the HRRR is playing catch up to how close the instability is riding just south of the warm front. You'll probably have to wait until that main MCS gets closer for any type of supercell threat to materialize. Kinda wonder how accurate SB cape is projected seems a little wonky right now, which may be attributed to it being the LR HRRR.
*Just took a further look seems like most are elevated lol unless the HRRR is playing catch up to how close the instability is riding just south of the warm front. You'll probably have to wait until that main MCS gets closer for any type of supercell threat to materialize. Kinda wonder how accurate SB cape is projected seems a little wonky right now, which may be attributed to it being the LR HRRR.
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Today's slight risk area is gone with the latest outlook.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 040102
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
802 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/
Bottom Line:
Rain and thunderstorm chances begin increasing across North and
Central Texas this evening/tonight with the potential for a few
strong storms capable of producing small hail and strong wind
gusts in our northwestern zones. The threat for strong and severe
thunderstorms will increase late Monday afternoon through Monday
night region-wide. All hazards including large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are possible Monday. Additionally,
heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and small stream
flooding despite ongoing drought conditions.
Meteorological Analysis:
In response to the modest southerly breeze in place this
afternoon, the poleward transport of Gulf moisture has served to
sharpen a diffuse western north-central Texas surface dryline,
extending from Quanah, TX southwestward towards Midland, TX. The
warm sector is further outlined by a quasi-stationary cold front,
associated with a northern stream shortwave trough advancing
across the Northern Plains. Surface analysis showed the cold front
draped from near Topeka in northeastern KS, to Cherokee in
northwestern OK, to Childress in the southern TX panhandle.
Regional radars indicate the initiation of convection in a fairly
narrow corridor just ahead of the dryline. In this region,
synoptic-scale ascent associated with the deepening upper trough
to our west is arriving while localized lift focused along the
dryline/cold front, low-level warm advection/surface heating, and
a strengthening low-level jet which is sending a deep surge of
moisture east of the dryline is supporting thunderstorm
development.
Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that instability
is locally confined along and just ahead of the dryline with a
semi-discrete/discrete supercellular convective mode favored due
to increasing effective shear and the orientation of mid-level
flow in relation to the surface boundary. This activity is progged
to move eastward through the late evening, crossing our
northwestern/western zones overnight. As the convection becomes
further displaced from the boundary, the environment will become
less supportive of severe weather, however a few thunderstorms may
still be strong enough to carry a threat for small hail and gusty
downdraft winds. Even the most aggressive CAMs do not maintain
convection to the Interstate 35 corridor so it is likely that most
of North Texas will remain dry tonight. Low PoPs have been
maintained across parts of North Texas through daybreak Monday as
additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms may develop in the
vicinity of residual outflow boundaries from decaying convection.
By Monday morning, the stalled front will have settled over
south-central Oklahoma and far western North Texas. Convective
activity through the morning hours should remain anchored near
this boundary though there is the potential for a few shallow warm
advection showers to develop across North and Central Texas as
low-level flow continues to transport moisture into the region
(dewpoints near 60 degrees approaching the Red River). Most areas
are likely to remain dry throughout much of the day however due to
the absence of forcing in the lower levels and the delayed
erosion of the EML/MLCIN. Though cloud cover will generally
inhibit diurnal heating, ongoing WAA and steepening mid-level
lapse rates ahead of the approaching upper trough will lead to
eventual destabilization as the nearly stationary front north of
the region begins to be pulled south/southeast into our western
zones.
Convective intensity and coverage is expected to increase Monday
evening and into the overnight hours as surface-based
thunderstorms erupt near the front/dryline. Vertical veering of
wind profiles with height should favor discrete supercells
initially, with the highest potential further south in
southwestern Central Texas along the dryline with large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Upscale
development into larger clusters and eventually an eastward-
advancing QLCS continues to be the most probable evolution as
storms will likely struggle to remain discrete amid the
increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to portions
of the surface boundary. The CAMs have favored this evolution for
several runs even as mesoscale details have wavered. This
convective activity will progressively march across most of North
and Central Texas before midnight. While the tornado and large
hail threat will be higher with any storms that manage to remain
discrete, the environment is still likely to be supportive of all
severe weather hazards including areas of widespread damaging
winds and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes given the strong low level
shear in place. The general timing for the peak severe weather
threat across our forecast area will be 7 PM CDT Monday to 12 AM
CDT Tuesday, so it is very important for everyone to have multiple
methods of receiving warnings through the overnight hours. In
addition to the severe weather threat, locally high rain rates may
result in isolated minor flooding, especially in low-lying and
flood prone areas, despite the anticipated progressive pace of
convection.
FXUS64 KFWD 040102
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
802 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Night/
Bottom Line:
Rain and thunderstorm chances begin increasing across North and
Central Texas this evening/tonight with the potential for a few
strong storms capable of producing small hail and strong wind
gusts in our northwestern zones. The threat for strong and severe
thunderstorms will increase late Monday afternoon through Monday
night region-wide. All hazards including large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are possible Monday. Additionally,
heavy rainfall may result in localized urban and small stream
flooding despite ongoing drought conditions.
Meteorological Analysis:
In response to the modest southerly breeze in place this
afternoon, the poleward transport of Gulf moisture has served to
sharpen a diffuse western north-central Texas surface dryline,
extending from Quanah, TX southwestward towards Midland, TX. The
warm sector is further outlined by a quasi-stationary cold front,
associated with a northern stream shortwave trough advancing
across the Northern Plains. Surface analysis showed the cold front
draped from near Topeka in northeastern KS, to Cherokee in
northwestern OK, to Childress in the southern TX panhandle.
Regional radars indicate the initiation of convection in a fairly
narrow corridor just ahead of the dryline. In this region,
synoptic-scale ascent associated with the deepening upper trough
to our west is arriving while localized lift focused along the
dryline/cold front, low-level warm advection/surface heating, and
a strengthening low-level jet which is sending a deep surge of
moisture east of the dryline is supporting thunderstorm
development.
Latest high-resolution model guidance suggests that instability
is locally confined along and just ahead of the dryline with a
semi-discrete/discrete supercellular convective mode favored due
to increasing effective shear and the orientation of mid-level
flow in relation to the surface boundary. This activity is progged
to move eastward through the late evening, crossing our
northwestern/western zones overnight. As the convection becomes
further displaced from the boundary, the environment will become
less supportive of severe weather, however a few thunderstorms may
still be strong enough to carry a threat for small hail and gusty
downdraft winds. Even the most aggressive CAMs do not maintain
convection to the Interstate 35 corridor so it is likely that most
of North Texas will remain dry tonight. Low PoPs have been
maintained across parts of North Texas through daybreak Monday as
additional showers and sub-severe thunderstorms may develop in the
vicinity of residual outflow boundaries from decaying convection.
By Monday morning, the stalled front will have settled over
south-central Oklahoma and far western North Texas. Convective
activity through the morning hours should remain anchored near
this boundary though there is the potential for a few shallow warm
advection showers to develop across North and Central Texas as
low-level flow continues to transport moisture into the region
(dewpoints near 60 degrees approaching the Red River). Most areas
are likely to remain dry throughout much of the day however due to
the absence of forcing in the lower levels and the delayed
erosion of the EML/MLCIN. Though cloud cover will generally
inhibit diurnal heating, ongoing WAA and steepening mid-level
lapse rates ahead of the approaching upper trough will lead to
eventual destabilization as the nearly stationary front north of
the region begins to be pulled south/southeast into our western
zones.
Convective intensity and coverage is expected to increase Monday
evening and into the overnight hours as surface-based
thunderstorms erupt near the front/dryline. Vertical veering of
wind profiles with height should favor discrete supercells
initially, with the highest potential further south in
southwestern Central Texas along the dryline with large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two possible. Upscale
development into larger clusters and eventually an eastward-
advancing QLCS continues to be the most probable evolution as
storms will likely struggle to remain discrete amid the
increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to portions
of the surface boundary. The CAMs have favored this evolution for
several runs even as mesoscale details have wavered. This
convective activity will progressively march across most of North
and Central Texas before midnight. While the tornado and large
hail threat will be higher with any storms that manage to remain
discrete, the environment is still likely to be supportive of all
severe weather hazards including areas of widespread damaging
winds and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes given the strong low level
shear in place. The general timing for the peak severe weather
threat across our forecast area will be 7 PM CDT Monday to 12 AM
CDT Tuesday, so it is very important for everyone to have multiple
methods of receiving warnings through the overnight hours. In
addition to the severe weather threat, locally high rain rates may
result in isolated minor flooding, especially in low-lying and
flood prone areas, despite the anticipated progressive pace of
convection.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I hope the HRRR is correct on SBCAPE lagging a good bit behind the warm front or your going to have a nasty tornado along that. Kinda turns into a triple point around 5-6 o'clock in the morning, *on the mesolow .
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Z
Zander98al
Guest
Something else I've noticed that kind've bothers me. A meso low is now starting to be forecasted to develop around the middle of the Mississippi/Alabama state line. Hm.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Lousy low level lapse rates will probably derail your tornado chances but still a lot of moving pieces right now, last post for the night. ?
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN
SC...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist across
portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday,
especially from the central Gulf Coast vicinity into
central/southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. A swath of
damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible.
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast over the Ozarks to Sabine
Valley Tuesday morning, and will shift east across the Mid-South to
the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the south/southeastern U.S. ahead
of the trough, with a 50+ kt 850 mb low-level jet oriented from
southern MS into southern/central AL and GA/SC. Surface features
will be somewhat nebulous, with a lack of strong cyclogenesis.
However, low-level southerlies will maintain strong warm advection
and mid/upper 60s dewpoints will spread north across the Deep South
into GA and eastern NC. This will aid in moderate destabilization
ahead of an eastward-advancing QLCS expected to be oriented roughly
from western MS into central LA. Given abundant boundary-layer
moisture, moderate instability, and strong shear, a broad area of
severe potential will exist across much of the south/southeast U.S.
through Tuesday evening. The greatest threat will exist across the
Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) area from eastern LA/southern MS into
southern AL, central/southern GA and southern SC.
...LA/MS...
There is quite a bit of discrepancy regarding where the ongoing
storm cluster or QLCS will be located Tuesday morning. Given this
uncertainty, the western fringes of the outlook area may need
adjusted in subsequent outlooks. Nevertheless, a roughly north-south
oriented line of storms should track across southern MS and portions
of central/eastern LA during the morning. Strong wind fields and a
storm-motion vector orthogonal to the QLCS will support a
damaging-wind threat, as well as a mesovortex tornado threat. Some
guidance suggests that some airmass recovery could occur during the
afternoon in the wake of morning convection, and another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms could occur. This remains highly
uncertain, but will need to be monitored.
...AL/GA/SC...
Midlevel flow will rapidly increase during the late morning/early
afternoon as the 50+ kt low-level jet overspreads the region. The
QLCS is expected to be maintained and shift east across the region
during the afternoon into early evening. Similar to LA/MS during the
morning, enlarged low-level hodographs will support mesovortex
and/or embedded supercell tornadoes within the line, in addition to
a swatch of damaging gusts. Less certain is how much, if any,
discrete convection develops ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS.
If discrete supercells develop, there is some potential for strong
tornadoes given strong low-level shear amid rich boundary-layer
moisture. Uncertainty regarding the development of discrete
convection will preclude sig tor probs at this time, but may be
needed in later outlooks across portions of at least AL/GA.
...Portions of Eastern Coastal FL...
Stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused to the north of the
area. Nevertheless, low 70s surface dewpoints and strong heating
will support strong destabilization through peak heating. Effective
shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt will support organized cells along
the sea breeze boundary during the afternoon. Locally strong gusts
and marginal hail will be possible with these storms. Low-level
winds will be somewhat weak, but small, favorably curved hodographs
are forecast. A tornado or two could occur with any storm located
immediately along the sea breeze boundary where low-level shear will
be maximized.
SPC AC 040726
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN GA...UPSTATE SC...FAR WESTERN NC
AND SOUTHEAST TN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts
and tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep South
into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. The greatest risk area
will encompass portions of central/northern Alabama into southeast
Tennessee, far western North Carolina/South Carolina and northern
Georgia.
...Deep South to the Southern Appalachians...
A closed upper low and its attendant trough will deep and shift east
from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes/MS Valley on Wednesday.
This will maintain deep-layer southwesterly flow across the Gulf
Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in a broad
warm-advection regime ahead of the trough. A strong low-level jet
around 40-50 kt will be somewhat more focused across parts of MS/AL
into the Carolinas ahead of a strong surface cold front. This
surface front is forecast to extend roughly from southeast MO into
east-central TX Wednesday morning, while a warm front extends from
the southern TN border into Upstate SC. The warm front should lift
north into NC and possibly southern VA late in the period while the
cold front sweeps eastward across the Mid-South and central Gulf
Coast.
A seasonally moist boundary layer will exist ahead of the surging
cold front, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s across much
of the southern/southeastern U.S. This will aid in moderate
destabilization of a strongly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow
largely parallel to the surface cold front will support linear
convection, with another QLCS sweeping east across the southern U.S.
likely. A swath of damaging gusts will accompany organized
convection through the daytime across parts of MS/AL/TN/GA and into
the southern Appalachians, the Carolinas and southern GA/northern FL
during the evening/overnight. While damaging gusts appear the most
likely hazard at this time, tornado potential will exist as well,
both within the QLCS/mesovortices and in any semi-discrete
convection should it develop ahead of the line.
..Leitman.. 04/04/2022
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Day 2 is concerning I'f HRRR verifies.
Well, I had an unexpected surprise, I managed to get 1.8 inches of rain overnight, I did not expect that at all!
NEW NWS BMX GRAPHICS
TUESDAY = BHAM SOUTH FOR TORNADO
WEDNESDAY = NEAR MONTGOMERY AND POINTS NORTH
ALTHOUGH ANYWHERE IN THE COLORED AREAS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WEDNESDAY = NEAR MONTGOMERY AND POINTS NORTH
ALTHOUGH ANYWHERE IN THE COLORED AREAS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Tuesday for sure, unless some mesoscale features pop up wensday and change the risk some.
Your main threat wensday should be just damaging winds and hail, with a spin up or two.
Tuesday is going to have a lot of wind damage but qcls spin ups and discreet cells with a accompanying tornado risk are more possible Tuesday than wensday.
Albeit with that being said your still 2 days out with wensdays threat even with small hodograph and not much speed shear you could see a few touchdowns if your directional shear and 0-3km instability and lapse rates are sufficient.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Your going to be hard pressed getting much threat north of a line from Montgomery to Selma on Tuesday unless that line moves out quick even then your shear is going to be hightailing it out of there before your unstable atmosphere gets in place.
Cbmatt2408
Member
Sweet, here in LaGrange, GA, we are both south of BHAM and North of Montgomery. We get to be in both circles. This does have the feel of one of those systems that produces one renegade supercell that goes on for like 3 hours.