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Severe 4/4-4/6 Severe Threat

Psalm 148:8 said:
That is not Sweet! I live here too! No thank you! Did you have debris from Alabama in your yard after Arpr 27???? I did!!! No thanks to anything like !
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Sorry for the unidentified sarcasm. The hope is that we are north of the main threat area tomorrow, as it looks like a Columbus south type event, but if the instability can grow north and crapvection does not come in early, the line could push north. Its definitely a couple days to be weather aware in our area.
 
18z HRRR slows it and looks pretty nasty for tomorrow, WF supercells tomorrow morning in MS/AL then embedded supercells and QLCS circulations through the day with WF supercells again in GA/SC
 

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BufordWX said:
I’m just not seeing that tornado threat for northern GA tomorrow. There’s going to be very little if any surface based instability with tomorrows round of storms in northern GA. If anything I could see some elevated hail producing storms or strong winds, but any tornado threat or significant tornado threat will be in southern half of GA IMO.
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Honestly for ATL north the better chance might be after the mcs moves through if the BL recovers with the cold pool aloft and some backing at the sfc with the low near Chattanooga
 
Some cells are percolating in the northern suburbs of DFW.

Just got what was attempting to be a downpour.
 
Bro I ain't never seen a simulated radar storm ever have gray wtc lol.

Begs to question what kindve monster updraft is thing thing producing on simulated radar lol Screenshot_20220404-175710.png
 
Man there are some wicked looking supercells on the 21z HRRR.

Gee whiz that cell I posted above has almost blue updraft Helicity. That storm is almost right in the prime position of the triple point.Screenshot_20220404-180001.pngScreenshot_20220404-175946.png
 
SD said:
Honestly for ATL north the better chance might be after the mcs moves through if the BL recovers with the cold pool aloft and some backing at the sfc with the low near Chattanooga
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Yeah I'm at least slightly intrigued on this. Looks very conditional but the HRRR hints at this with storms firing in the evening. BL kind of recovers but it's very meh on instability. Anything that fires later in the day has some potential though.

hrrr-southapps-refc_1000m-9199600.pnghrrr-southapps-sig_tor-9199600.png
 
Very isolated , very good enviroment and intense updraft in the triple point. Bruh.
Talk about long track strong tornado potential.Screenshot_20220404-183406.pngScreenshot_20220404-183504.png
 
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Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Areas affected...Central/North-Central Texas and extreme
South-Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 042325Z - 050100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be issued by 0030-0100z for
portions of Central/North-Central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Moist boundary-layer surge, characterized by mid 60s
surface dew points, is advancing north across central TX and will
soon spread into the Metroplex. Latest satellite and radar imagery
support this with scattered showers now evident just east of Waco
into Ellis County. Given the approaching short wave there is
increasing concern that scattered supercells will evolve within this
more buoyant, and strongly sheared environment. Current thinking is
the warm frontal position may not advance appreciably north from its
current position and given the amount of convection observed over
southern OK this seems reasonable. As LLJ strengthens into the
Arklatex this evening there is increasing concern for the potential
for tornadoes. Tornado watch will likely be warranted by 01z across
this region.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31649784 34009674 33749523 31419622 31649784
 
Tornado Warning
TXC097-337-050045-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0028.220405T0010Z-220405T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
East central Montague County in north central Texas...
Northwestern Cooke County in north central Texas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 710 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near St. Jo, or 10 miles southeast of Nocona, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Montague and northwestern Cooke Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9718 3384 9717 3380 9723 3365 9759
3374 9769 3391 9748 3389 9745 3384 9746
3382 9743 3382 9737 3388 9733 3386 9733
3387 9731 3389 9731 3386 9726 3390 9725
3392 9723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 226DEG 16KT 3372 9757

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

30
 
Hey @accu35, you need to watch the weather early tomorrow morning through the day, signals are actually worrisome for somewhere around your neck of the woods . may not verify, but HRRR has some very intense storms near you in south Alabama. Just keep a eye on it. First time I've really ever seen a blue updraft swath. There may be a intense tornado or two in south Alabama tommorow.

Also goes to the other south Alabama board members, keep a eye on tommorow in case things do take a turn for the worse.
 
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