MHX gives us the ingredients minus a real trigger I guess.
What amounts to a warm
front will push north this evening, with
southerly
flow developing behind it. Strong low level
moisture
advection will allow for temps and dewpoints to climb into the
mid to upper 60s overnight, leading to modest to strong
instability developing with MUCAPE values of 1000-2000
J/kg
possible. This will also take place under strengthening upper
level winds, with strong wind
shear present over the area after
midnight. However, with the cold
front/
triple point low over
western
NC, there will be limited
convergence or forcing for
storms to develop over the area, along with limited
moisture in
the mid levels. Nevertheless,
scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected overnight, with a couple/few severe
thunderstorms possible if updrafts can mature. That still
remains a big "if", and will be the limiting factor early Sunday
morning to a more widespread severe event.