Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Another important observation for Saturday, in addition to less synoptic scale forcing for ascent...
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4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Given this ^, it honestly wouldn't surprise me if the warm sector managed to creep up into the southern mid-Atlantic (i.e. Virginia) Saturday night
Gfs still shows impressive soundings, heres one near CLT, once again, nice large hail sounding given the hodo (very straight from 3-11km given the strong SR winds, and solid thermodynamics, but these soundings are also pretty solid for damaging winds given the dry subcloud layer and dry air aloft along with large DCAPE 
NAM literally wants to hold back the system until Sunday morning all the sudden, these models lately have been a pain in the ass
Gfs holding Steady, who wants hail ? Lol 
NAM is a classic @Webberweather53 
NAM shows More than enough CAPE
Also shows storms arriving at or just right after peak heating, soundings are supportive of some very large hail given the large amounts of cape coinciding with solid 0-6km bulk shear and elongated mid/upper level hodos, also solid soundings for damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes, SPC put that marginal out due to uncertainty but I wanna bet there’s going to be a upgrade if things hold
NAM shows More than enough CAPE
Also shows storms arriving at or just right after peak heating, soundings are supportive of some very large hail given the large amounts of cape coinciding with solid 0-6km bulk shear and elongated mid/upper level hodos, also solid soundings for damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes, SPC put that marginal out due to uncertainty but I wanna bet there’s going to be a upgrade if things hold
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, given there are actually storms, this area averaged environmental sounding on the 6z GFS can support "gorilla" hail.
Yo Fro and Webb
Jessy89
Member
This Saturday event seems to be the one to watch. Seems like no blanket will limit severe weather. At least a hail and damaging wind event
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yummy little UH streaks as well, might chase locally ? soundings are good for structure 
I just realized looking at temps/SBcape the 3km nam sets up a backdoor front, hmmm
Yup hell of a boundary
Turning is quite impressive along that boundary, backed surface winds 
CIPS analog points to the main threat being hail
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that's exactly what I expected to see.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a classic Great Plains dry line big hail sounding minus the fact that environmental CAPE is <500 j/kg. If we can get more CAPE than forecast by the 12z NAM, we're going to be in big trouble
Well considering that how bad the NAM was with this system and how it did with Easter, CAPE was higher, I have a hard time trusting the NAM, at times. I'm guessing an increase in CAPE would cause a tornado concern?