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4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather

Hrrr is a little meh with low level moisture tomorrow but is warm with 70s along and south of the WF. By 21z the WF has gotten north of CLT then runs due E to near New Bern. Probably going to be a long day of watching obs tomorrow
 
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This sounding is for upstate sc Ne Georgia is very similar. This is the Nam but even gfs shows severe weather. I’m not saying there gonna be tornadoes but I am saying if these storms do indeed develop. They will likely be be strong enough to trigger severe thunderstorm warnings. Hail and damaging winds.


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Something to note the 3k Nam looks to pop a low over upstate sc. The regular Nam don’t. What would that lie over the upstate do or affect severe weather? More twisting and wind shear or more hail potential?


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I was really looking forward to chasing, locally and now it's not looking like a big event that was being advertised a few days ago. It's too bad, it would have been nice to do something. I'm getting restless! Lol.
 
ryan1234 said:
I was really looking forward to chasing, locally and now it's not looking like a big event that was being advertised a few days ago. It's too bad, it would have been nice to do something. I'm getting restless! Lol.
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You might could chase the hail threat ne Georgia upstate sc looks like


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I think we won't really know until tomorrow as to where the boundary sets up. That's going to play a huge factor, obviously. I just wish we had a bit more CAPE.
 
SD said:
Yep. Im not entirely sold on the CAD winning tomorrow but that said it generally does.
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I'm not sure what to believe. Ha. Modeling was horrible this winter and I feel like that isn't really changing going into Spring/Summer. The only system that modeling did well on was the Easter system. At least for the SE.
 
The storms prediction center keeping the outlook at marginal is confusing. You’d think this is at least a slight risk considering all short range models show some severe weather hail and gusty winds. Seems like there downplaying this one a bit


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The HRRR has a nasty looking supercell tracking over northern Guilford county. The sounding doesn't scream tornado though, so there's that.
 
Also mediocre dew point, high dew point spread, and minimal surface CAPE up here which I hope verifies (sorry storm chasers!)
 
Shaggy said:
Not looking like anything here east of 95. This will be the 3rd advertised severe risk that has faded into a nothingburger.
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This one was never advertised by models to be a threat for our area. It’s more to our west if anything.
 
Forgot to post this but the NAM shows decent storms, some with weak rotation, storms with rotation may pose a large hail/damaging wind risk given the fact that rotating updrafts often produce more instances of severe 6559410F-F224-4201-98EF-B21E4EC05D47.pngFB31514F-4E80-4FAA-A270-1A761478EBFF.png
 
It’s worth noting that tommorow May be one of those instances where large hail may occur with even modest CAPE, large straight hodos still look likely which increases the threat of splitting supercells and large hail, especially isolated supercells, also looks like off the deck inflow will be around 35-45kts 83062BA4-E15F-4CE9-97B0-9AC762E4659E.png7B94AB02-362B-4F7F-A964-F7E7A63D4E80.jpeg
 
Bham 99 said:
I'm driving from Charlotte to Charleston and I'm going Thru the Midlands.. the winds are crazy I think I just went through a wake low.. it's not even raining that much but trees are down..
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You did. Columbia, SC issued a special statement yesterday on it
 
Steven_1974 said:
My bad. Thought we'd hope for less of an opportunity for destruction and death.
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You're a member of a weather forum. If everyone just liked sunshine and 72 degrees, we probably wouldn't spend so much time together. I don't think anyone hopes for death and destruction.
 
Shaggy said:
MHX sure seemed to think we had a threat a few days ago. Still mentioning possible severe in their disco.
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Meh they’ve dropped the ball so many times on things I never read their discos anymore. RAH is much better and more detailed usually.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I personally love storms, I hate death and destruction, but they interest me, and not to forget the photogenic chances you get with them, just something that’s so interesting
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Awe inspiring comes to mind then addictive.

True story. I get up to see a good storm even if it's at 3am. So one night I'm laying there and I hear some distant thunder and its growing louder. I then feel my wifes(then girlfriend) hand cover my ear. She literally tries to block me from hearing the storm cause she knew i was heading outside at 3am lol.
 
If I have to take any severe weather, it would be hail because it is the least deadly of all. Tbh, the idea of a mainly large hail threat excited me.
 
SimeonNC said:
If I have to take any severe weather, it would be hail because it is the least deadly of all. Tbh, the idea of a mainly large hail threat excited me.
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I fear that the most. My house has survived numerous severe gusts. 2 inch hail could destroy my siding my roof and my cars.....no thanks.
 
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