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4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather

ryan1234 said:
Brad P's VLOG mentioned that he was didn't necessarily agree with the SPC outlook for today. He highlighted the Southern Piedmont as seeing a better chance for severe weather.
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Yeah I saw that. Temp has dropped 2 degrees here as well. I guess there is still justification for a marginal severe threat up here, but tornadoes? I dunno about that.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
earlier the clouds came back, now there scattering out again with the sun coming out, temp/DP is 65/55 up from 60/51 3 hours ago, looking a MUcape you can see the boundary pushing the NC/SC border
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Yup. Warm front is slowly pushing through the Midlands. If things time out right, I could see a bit of an enhanced tornado risk somewhere in the region.
 
Morehead city thinks coastal areas have best chance. They highlight some pretty decent dynamics but there may not be any storms to tap into that environment especially their inland zones where I am.

The big question tonight is severe potential, with the limiting
factors a clear-cut lifting mechanism and potential drier air
aloft. A boundary (well defined by Td gradient) will be
approaching from the west but the best upper level support and
omega will be displaced north and west towards the Triad, per
the 12z HREF. Additionally, the upper level dry slot will be
nosing into the region overnight depriving the region of deep
moisture, although this has slowed slightly in the 12z suite
with PWATs climbing towards 1.5" especially towards the coast.

Despite these factors, CAMs and recent runs of the HRRR have
been insistent on surface-based convection firing overnight
along the coast ahead of this boundary, with a ripe pre-storm
environment. SBCAPEs are progged at 1500-2000 J/kg with mid-
level lapse rates climbing to 7 C/km. Of particular note is EBWD
of 60+ kt and 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kt with LCLs generally
under 750 m. This points to a potential tornado threat supported
by low-level looping hodographs, SC values of 15-20 and STP
potentially as high as 5 per the latest RAP soundings. Damaging
winds are also possible especially given the dry air aloft.
Small hail is possible as well but given the time of day it is
likely a smaller threat. Storms are also possible further inland
but given weaker instability and questions regarding the warm
frontal advance, confidence here is lower.

To reemphasize, this threat is highly conditional on a
sufficient lifting mechanism being present and drier air aloft
not depriving the environment of necessary moisture. If storms
do fire, the highest threat window is between 06-12z overnight.
 
Storms beginning to fire up in N. GA as well. I thought this event would be another nonevent, waking up to clouds/drizzle, but now I think this system is something that bears watching. Lots of moving pieces though.
 
mbway091 said:
Looks like that TN severe watch won't be happening after all.
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Storms are moving pretty quickly out of TN, so that's probably the main reason. Wouldn't surprise me to see a watch issued somewhere within the next few hours.
 
Easy to pick out the warm front on visible too, sitting right on the NC-SC state line w/ the low-level cumulus field demarcating the leading edge of the warm sector & legitimately non-zero CAPE. Also noticing a weak impulse approaching the I-77 corridor between Charlotte & Columbia (slightly more agitated Cu field), might see a storm try to fire pretty shortly...

COD-GOES-East-local-Carolina.02.20200425.212612-over=counties-map-bars=.gif
 
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