4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather

[Myfrotho704_]

Not liking this one
Trend has been the SER flexing more, which helps allow more warm sector/more surface based cape, trough lifting out in SE Canada has helped as well

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This run of the gefs continues that idea of increasing heights out ahead

 

[ryan1234]

Soundings, at least on the GFS don't scream an outbreak which is odd, given the setup.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Soundings, at least on the GFS don't scream an outbreak which is odd, given the setup.

This setup looks different, might not be much tornadoes, but this setup already looks good for large hail/damaging wind potential given the unidirectional flow/straight hodographs and larger amounts of instability, if I was a betting man I would say this would likely be some type of linear convection setup

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Kinda think with that look at H5 that soundings would be more scary, that’s a nasty broad negatively tilted trof

 

[ryan1234]

Kinda think with that look at H5 that soundings would be more scary, that’s a nasty broad negatively tilted trof View attachment 39935View attachment 39933View attachment 39936

Mother Nature isn't a huge fan of Sunday's, at least as of late.

 

[Webberweather53]

Kinda think with that look at H5 that soundings would be more scary, that’s a nasty broad negatively tilted trof View attachment 39935View attachment 39933View attachment 39936

Oh man you're not kidding, this went from nothing to yikes in 2 days of Euro runs

 

[Webberweather53]

Oh man you're not kidding, this went from nothing to yikes in 2 days of Euro runs

View attachment 39941

Basically just went from dry frontal passage to possible outbreak in 2 afternoons of Euro runs. This is also inside day 5... Uncertainty is ridiculous w/ this one

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Basically just went from dry frontal passage to possible outbreak in 2 afternoons of Euro runs. This is also inside day 5... Uncertainty is ridiculous w/ this one

Went from a nothingburger to a

 

[Webberweather53]

If this wave slows down & digs even just a little bit, we might be in big trouble. On the other hand, if it's just a hair more progressive/flat, it's a nothingburger, there's almost no room for anything in between here. Low-level instability & CAPE will be the limiting factor to any severe imo.

Crazy to think we're basically blind and this thing is <5 days out

 

[BufordWX]

Gefs members showing a wide range of options. Some look worse the others. (members 7 and 18 for example)

 

[Webberweather53]

Gefs members showing a wide range of options. Some look worse the others. (members 7 and 18 for example)View attachment 39945

Basically about what I thought I'd see. Some members with no precip, others implying another full-scale severe weather outbreak and we have less than 5 days to figure this out.

Awesome

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Basically about what I thought I'd see. Some members with no precip, others implying another full-scale severe weather outbreak and we have less than 5 days to figure this out.

Awesome

Don’t like what I’m seeing, some members show a wedge front/backdoor cold front ranging around the NC/SC border all the way up to VA, even bigger yay, we better hope this thing trends more progressive but with our luck in 2020....

 

[mbway091]

Don’t like what I’m seeing, some members show a wedge front/backdoor cold front ranging around the NC/SC border all the way up to VA, even bigger yay

Wait. I thought that was a good thing ?

 

[Shaggy]

Don’t like what I’m seeing, some members show a wedge front/backdoor cold front ranging around the NC/SC border all the way up to VA, even bigger yay, we better hope this thing trends more progressive but with our luck in 2020....

Wedge fronts have put down some memorable tornados before.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wait. I thought that was a good thing ?

Not all the time, they can enhance SRH along them, and actually raise tornado chances right along them

 

[Shaggy]

Wait. I thought that was a good thing ?

March 28 and 29, 2010 North Carolina Tornado Outbreak

projects.ncsu.edu

 

[Myfrotho704_]

March 28 and 29, 2010 North Carolina Tornado Outbreak

projects.ncsu.edu

Setup this past February had a wedge front and barely instability, yet dropped a handful of tornadoes localized around CLT
Also can recall the one in my county in 2012 and actually saw some of the damage myself

 

[Shaggy]

Setup this past February had a wedge front and barely instability, yet dropped a handful of tornadoes localized around CLT
Also can recall the one in my county in 2012 and actually saw some of the damage myself

Its similar to thundersnow or huge hail. You may not see it often but you sure won't forget it if you do. I have seen wedge fronts wreak havoc with the piedmont on a couple of occasions and they can be very deceptive. Not my neck of the woods but I cringe when I hear of a setup with a wedge front and potential tornados.

 

[ryan1234]

Setup this past February had a wedge front and barely instability, yet dropped a handful of tornadoes localized around CLT
Also can recall the one in my county in 2012 and actually saw some of the damage myself

Yup. I will never forget the Reedy Creek tornado. Pretty strong EF2 as well. It flattened a couple of homes and did significant damage to a lot of others. The worst thing that it was poorly warned. Much like the Chattanooga tornado 2 weeks ago.