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4/24/20-4/26/20 possible severe weather

Rain Cold said:
You're a member of a weather forum. If everyone just liked sunshine and 72 degrees, we probably wouldn't spend so much time together. I don't think anyone hopes for death and destruction.
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Well I'd hope not. I just don't get some folks almost cheering for values that give you tornadoes. I've been in two so the prospects of them don't make me feel good at all.
 
SimeonNC said:
If I have to take any severe weather, it would be hail because it is the least deadly of all. Tbh, the idea of a mainly large hail threat excited me.
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But it’s another sucky event that occurs around midnight or after up this way. I will be fast asleep unless my phone buzzes for a tornado or if the hail breaks my windows.
 
We got round coming through here around 11 or so.
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SWB said:
We got round coming through here around 11 or so.
3382be68a0e924847ffc151a59fa0144.jpg


Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
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So it probably hits Nashville later on tonight, right? ------, I was hoping to not have overnight storms tonight. Can't wait. :(
 
MHX gives us the ingredients minus a real trigger I guess.

What amounts to a warm front will push north this evening, with
southerly flow developing behind it. Strong low level moisture
advection will allow for temps and dewpoints to climb into the
mid to upper 60s overnight, leading to modest to strong
instability developing with MUCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg
possible. This will also take place under strengthening upper
level winds, with strong wind shear present over the area after
midnight. However, with the cold front/triple point low over
western NC, there will be limited convergence or forcing for
storms to develop over the area, along with limited moisture in
the mid levels. Nevertheless, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected overnight, with a couple/few severe
thunderstorms possible if updrafts can mature. That still
remains a big "if", and will be the limiting factor early Sunday
morning to a more widespread severe event.
 
Hrrr keeps hinting at this surge of CAPE as the line of storms begins to enter the piedmont, hmmm F0FF5E26-F8C0-40C4-A07E-EEE06DA2DC0A.png
 
We escaped with little damage tonight it appears. Seems to be very little reports to east of here. Except for Florida has some high wind reports.
 
Fell back to 61/56 after a light shower. Looks like the wedge will win today which should keep severe at a minimum in this area. Still wouldn't be surprised to see an elevated storm overnight with a little hail but overall we dodged another bullet
 
SD said:
Fell back to 61/56 after a light shower. Looks like the wedge will win today which should keep severe at a minimum in this area. Still wouldn't be surprised to see an elevated storm overnight with a little hail but overall we dodged another bullet
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Skies are beginning to thin out a bit down here, based on the satellite it looks like we might get some more breaks in the clouds. We'll see...
 
ryan1234 said:
Skies are beginning to thin out a bit down here, based on the satellite it looks like we might get some more breaks in the clouds. We'll see...
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Yeah it'll be interesting down your way with any storms that get going in NE Ga/upstate then moving in. Certainly looks like the edges of the wedge may be eroding a bit
 
Seems like there's a lot more disorganized precipitation in eastern TN right now than the HRRR has been depicting. Wonder if any of those cells it shows around here will really materialize.
 
mbway091 said:
Seems like there's a lot more disorganized precipitation in eastern TN right now than the HRRR has been depicting. Wonder if any of those cells it shows around here will really materialize.
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Brad P's VLOG mentioned that he was didn't necessarily agree with the SPC outlook for today. He highlighted the Southern Piedmont as seeing a better chance for severe weather.
 
ryan1234 said:
Brad P's VLOG mentioned that he was didn't necessarily agree with the SPC outlook for today. He highlighted the Southern Piedmont as seeing a better chance for severe weather.
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Yeah I saw that. Temp has dropped 2 degrees here as well. I guess there is still justification for a marginal severe threat up here, but tornadoes? I dunno about that.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
earlier the clouds came back, now there scattering out again with the sun coming out, temp/DP is 65/55 up from 60/51 3 hours ago, looking a MUcape you can see the boundary pushing the NC/SC border
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Yup. Warm front is slowly pushing through the Midlands. If things time out right, I could see a bit of an enhanced tornado risk somewhere in the region.
 
Morehead city thinks coastal areas have best chance. They highlight some pretty decent dynamics but there may not be any storms to tap into that environment especially their inland zones where I am.

The big question tonight is severe potential, with the limiting
factors a clear-cut lifting mechanism and potential drier air
aloft. A boundary (well defined by Td gradient) will be
approaching from the west but the best upper level support and
omega will be displaced north and west towards the Triad, per
the 12z HREF. Additionally, the upper level dry slot will be
nosing into the region overnight depriving the region of deep
moisture, although this has slowed slightly in the 12z suite
with PWATs climbing towards 1.5" especially towards the coast.

Despite these factors, CAMs and recent runs of the HRRR have
been insistent on surface-based convection firing overnight
along the coast ahead of this boundary, with a ripe pre-storm
environment. SBCAPEs are progged at 1500-2000 J/kg with mid-
level lapse rates climbing to 7 C/km. Of particular note is EBWD
of 60+ kt and 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kt with LCLs generally
under 750 m. This points to a potential tornado threat supported
by low-level looping hodographs, SC values of 15-20 and STP
potentially as high as 5 per the latest RAP soundings. Damaging
winds are also possible especially given the dry air aloft.
Small hail is possible as well but given the time of day it is
likely a smaller threat. Storms are also possible further inland
but given weaker instability and questions regarding the warm
frontal advance, confidence here is lower.

To reemphasize, this threat is highly conditional on a
sufficient lifting mechanism being present and drier air aloft
not depriving the environment of necessary moisture. If storms
do fire, the highest threat window is between 06-12z overnight.
 
Storms beginning to fire up in N. GA as well. I thought this event would be another nonevent, waking up to clouds/drizzle, but now I think this system is something that bears watching. Lots of moving pieces though.
 
mbway091 said:
Looks like that TN severe watch won't be happening after all.
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Storms are moving pretty quickly out of TN, so that's probably the main reason. Wouldn't surprise me to see a watch issued somewhere within the next few hours.
 
Easy to pick out the warm front on visible too, sitting right on the NC-SC state line w/ the low-level cumulus field demarcating the leading edge of the warm sector & legitimately non-zero CAPE. Also noticing a weak impulse approaching the I-77 corridor between Charlotte & Columbia (slightly more agitated Cu field), might see a storm try to fire pretty shortly...

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