It's interesting looking at the 1km reflectivity you can see the initial cellular development start congealing in later frames but it's still hinting at a few discrete cells at the end of the run. Regardless though at minimum the initial few hours of storm development look problematic even if the forcing catches up
Need more cape for a serious derecho.
Latest runs have increased cape. Something to watch …
Maybe similar in evolution but likely not as much aerial coverage. It's really a good thing we have had the recent pattern in mid to late March instead of mid to late April, the additional seasonal warming probably would have made these much worse
Going respectfully towards u disagree with u there. Like I posted earlier , seems very plausible with models keep inching up cape , plus u won’t get idea on this stuff till two more days least sometime s day of the event
?, Good to always have different opinions, totally agree with storm mode idea til right up till the event. Almost crazy how short of time your given before models determine what happens lol
Instability can mostly be the main thing models tend to under do, just saying . Last 24 hour period sometime seen time and time were models play catch up some certain meso things
Important to understand the general meteorology going on with the shear amount of divergence aloft. Will almost always bring out more widespread precip ahead of possible thunderstorms putting a limiting factor on extensive tornadic events. Certainly this set up can produce some significant tornados but it’s premature to look at every run of any short range model as gospel especially when it comes to something as sensitive as a tornado outbreak where real time observations the day of are way more important than a model depiction still days away from the event. QLSC seems the plausible scenario with some embedded tornados in the line. Have to watch potential for discrete cells as always out ahead of the line. If they are able to get going. But as we saw last week the plethora of discrete cells never really materialized as models showed even a day out. Good to be cautious with these set ups especially when overall divergent flow aloft would support too much competition between cells
I mean what do we have to really do right now other than look at short range models lol, everybody is trying to get a idea of what models hint at for a event. I've always preached mesoscale details of the day should be a focus point. Models did a decent job on the plethora of cells, sure, wasn't violent long track tornadoes but you had in terms of tornado counts a pretty hefty amount from the last event along with some deadly tornadoes across the discreet cell zone.
