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Severe 3/30-4/2 Severe Weather

The SREF just only 1 day away from being able to show the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) for Dixie Alley, it's now in range for Tuesday's Event for the Southern Plains
 
Kinda looks like this will be a bit messy though, no dry layer to prevent widespread precip.

Also note that the system sped up and is becoming a bigger threat for Alabama. Thought it would happen for some reason it always goes like that...
 
This reminds me a bit of April 28th 2014 setup. With the low all the way up near Iowa/Nebraska/Kansas area. And a semi broken line look with it being more discreet near the begging of it's lifespan and then congealing to a line. Lapse rates are incredible into MS/AL based on soundings. Saw lapse rates from surface to 3km of 8.2
 
Zander98al said:
Bingo. View attachment 116302
"Regional tornado outbreak possible"
Click to expand...
My goodness, this is one of the largest D4 Enhanced Risks I've seen in a while.
This is the SPC Discussion
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED...

...DISCUSSION...
An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on
Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging
winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado
outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.
Click to expand...
 
Iceresistance said:
My goodness, this is one of the largest D4 Enhanced Risks I've seen in a while.
This is the SPC Discussion
Click to expand...
I may be wrong but as you get a bigger enchaned area within the time frame were all you can put is enchanced means there likely is area already ready to be outlined within that huge enchaned area. There's probably a moderate that will be issued tommorow somewhere in the enchaned.
 
Lol looking back this looks almost identical to the 2nd 2021 outbreak on day 4 51036355637_e04670640e_z.jpg
 
Iceresistance said:
First SREF run to have the Enhanced Risk on D4 in Mississippi, it's already at a 60% STP
Click to expand...
Yeah most of the overnight guidance is pretty concerning for a good part of Ms, La, west AL, west TN and eastern AR. Seems like forcing this go around might be a little less which may lead to more cellular versus linear but there is a good amount of divergence aloft which may create a crowded environment
 
SD said:
Yeah most of the overnight guidance is pretty concerning for a good part of Ms, La, west AL, west TN and eastern AR. Seems like forcing this go around might be a little less which may lead to more cellular versus linear but there is a good amount of divergence aloft which may create a crowded environment
Click to expand...
Imagine that Enhanced is going to be expanded North some?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Imagine that Enhanced is going to be expanded North some?
Click to expand...
It wouldn't surprise me at all. I think the big question marks for your area are WAA and divergence early in the day which may act to kick off some rain/clouds and hold back on instability. The thing is though most models have been dry for your area and rocket afternoon temps well into the 70s with a ribbon of 62+ dews surging northward. I would certainly be concerned for the potential for a few well defined bows and spin ups in your area if not a supercell or 2 embedded, assuming it's not cloudy/drizzly/rainy all morning
 
Yeah your looking at a widespread regional outbreak. NAM just confirms it, usually when you start seeing bright pink in the supercell composite like the NAM is doing means your going to see a nasty tornado day.
 
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