Fv3 hires is probably more concerning than the 3k for SW Al and southern MS when it comes to tornadoes. You can see in the sim radar things get more cellular vs linear and there are some line segments where you could spin up the tail ends. Either way the wind damage threat looks really high with this imo as we are at least very likely to get a large qlcs chasing the higher cape and I wouldn't be terribly shocked to see a wake low develop on the back side of the large storm complex.Classic QLCS showing up on the 3k NAM at the end of its run. Good signs for a reduced threat, although not completely, of isolated supercells with 200 mile paths.
Fv3 hires is probably more concerning than the 3k for SW Al and southern MS when it comes to tornadoes. You can see in the sim rado9u0ar things get more cellular vs linear and there are some line segments where you could spin up the tail ends. Either way the wind damage threat looks really high with this imo as we are at least very likely to get a large qlcs chasing the higher cape and I wouldn't be terribly shocked to see a wake low develop on the back side of the large storm complex.
The 12z NAM soundings by the end of the run in the Carolinas and GA were attention grabbing but the timing of overnight into mid morning Thursday (using the icon) may limit the overall areal coverage
That is typical of these setups of high shear, little in the way of an EML and with a SSW or SW wind at 500mb. That area seems to always spit out one or two big supercells before the line overtakes them.Actually becoming more concerned for supercells being spit out over the Mississippi Delta, it seems some of the closer range models are picking up on it.
That area circled is actually why this setup is gonna be messy, to much of that divergence aloft and it’s a junk fest/mainly a QLCS threatActually becoming more concerned for supercells being spit out over the Mississippi Delta, it seems some of the closer range models are picking up on it.
I can see why the significant area was put in this region, you could possibly have a regional type tornado outbreak here like spc says. And then again the threat area may be a bit more higher for wind damage but still high potential for tornado.View attachment 115932
Junk fest with high end paramters lol. Even if just initially with convection popping you could have some significant tornadoes in that corridor. Apparently spc and nws see something that's ringing bells in there heads, maybe they have private models they use that indicate something we may not see.That area circled is actually why this setup is gonna be messy, to much of that divergence aloft and it’s a junk fest/mainly a QLCS threat