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Severe 3/21-3/24 Severe Weather

SD said:
It's interesting how much faster the hrrr is at establishing the SB cape in that area vs say the 3k
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Yeah, I actually kinda side with the HRRR. Moisture is always downplayed until you get within a day range, I'm afraid your highest tornado potential will actually be that western half of Alabama if that discreet convection that HRRR is showing gets going. It really made convection discreet in Texas for today when it was looking more like a line. It'll be a litmus test of what happens in Texas
 
This is the difference of what 24 hours of getting closer in the HRRR range does for storm mode.... Screenshot_20220321-134959.pngScreenshot_20220321-134952.pngScreenshot_20220321-134927.png
 
Zander98al said:
Yeah, I actually kinda side with the HRRR. Moisture is always downplayed until you get within a day range, I'm afraid your highest tornado potential will actually be that western half of Alabama if that discreet convection that HRRR is showing gets going. It really made convection discreet in Texas for today when it was looking more like a line. It'll be a litmus test of what happens in Texas
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It’s different aloft wind parameter wise in texas today vs tomorrow across the SE
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s different aloft wind parameter wise in texas today vs tomorrow across the SE
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Even so, the accuracy of today's storms forecasted by the hrrr vs real time. will give higher confidence to tommorows prefrontal storms.
 
18z is being even more so bullish with warm sector prefront convection. Nvm that's to far ahead. Does have cells popping up near the qcls though.
 
May have too much shear and rip the updrafts apart. with just 1000 cape
 
Arcc said:
Just FYI, Pivotal Weather has added 0-3km UH to the WRFs and HRRR which is awesome as it’s been lacking on most sites for years. That said, the color scale is different value wise from the 2-5km UH maps. Just so everyone knows.
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Also, I may have missed it or been living under a rock but just noticed the models on pivotal under severe then combination plot have a SBCAPE/hodograph
 
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