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Severe 3/21-3/24 Severe Weather

Anybody have analogs of similar events to this setup? I always have trouble finding it, I know cips has it but they changed stuff a bit back and I don't know how to get to the top analogs
 
The NAM has a distinct sub 1000mb secondary low near Memphis for the time frame further increasing storm shear. Also lots of diffluence from the splitting 300mb flow.
 
The biggest wild card will be what happens over East TX on Monday.

It is certainly plausible that Monday ends up being the main day for tornadic storms, then we end up with more widepread severe coverage but a more mixed storm mode of hail/damaging winds on Tuesday.
 
Interesting point made here. That Mississippi Delta tornado outbreak is often forgot about. But was really bad in it's own right.
 
For my location it appears we could be looking at some flooding concerns going into early part of next week. Hoping the worst of this system stays to the south of here.
 
First legit system it appears, synoptically has the markings to be notable/and or comparable to the outbreaks from last March for Dixie
Also Looks like a threat even for GA/SC/NC A5BC043A-F8CC-4ADD-B8E7-4453A967EB4B.png4106C80A-E779-4BE4-9674-0A490C953306.png6B0058F6-9E79-4DB2-B796-6A683357C344.png
 
Something to note,... Parameters (CAPE+SHEAR) are considerably higher for Tuesdays event compared to these past events for Tuesday in Mississippi into west Alabama for the threat period. Very large sickle hodograph and a more substantial digging trough. So in theory.... This event is like those but on crack.. kind've lol.
 
Wow. NWS JAN (south-central MS) Says dewpoints of 70-75 are possible Tuesday afteroon. The only reason for this not. Being a significant event will be based of mesoscale deatils coming in the next few days. (Ejection, CAP, Storm mode.) Air mass will possibly be of Caribbean origin. That is not good at all. This will likely be a very volatile Thermodynamic environment. That will be able to go hand in hand with the very sheared environment... You need high thermos for very high shear environments to maintain those storms to not let them get ripped apart.

Your looking at the possibility of 4000-4500 sbcape in a eviroment with dewpoint up to 75 degrees. Your basically getting a tropical jungle airmass with how sticky that will be.
 
LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0236 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022/

Monday through Saturday.

No significant changes to forecast. Models still have the strongest
convection arriving in west Alabama by mid afternoon on Tuesday.
This is a very dynamic system with the short wave trof undergoing
a negative tilt between 18z Tuesday and 06z Wednesday. Models are
not very bullish with surface based instability Tuesday afternoon
across west Alabama with MUCAPE only 400-700 J/kg, but GFS does
have 0-3 EHI values approaching 2. Models are also indicating a
meso-low developing over Mississippi Tuesday afternoon, which
could enhance tornadic potential. Higher threat for severe storms
will be west of I-65 before midnight, but severe threat will
continue through the overnight period and into early Wednesday
morning due to strong forcing and wind shear.
 
Cold Wrather Fan said:
LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0236 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022/

Monday through Saturday.

No significant changes to forecast. Models still have the strongest
convection arriving in west Alabama by mid afternoon on Tuesday.
This is a very dynamic system with the short wave trof undergoing
a negative tilt between 18z Tuesday and 06z Wednesday. Models are
not very bullish with surface based instability Tuesday afternoon
across west Alabama with MUCAPE only 400-700 J/kg, but GFS does
have 0-3 EHI values approaching 2. Models are also indicating a
meso-low developing over Mississippi Tuesday afternoon, which
could enhance tornadic potential. Higher threat for severe storms
will be west of I-65 before midnight, but severe threat will
continue through the overnight period and into early Wednesday
morning due to strong forcing and wind shear.
Click to expand...
Expect instability to rise for west Alabama. There's always a increase, it'll probably start very soon, models are underdone a good bit right now. But definetly the worst tornado potential will be over Mississippi for this event I believe.
 
That mesolow really backs those winds. That's very bad news
 
Another lifting mechanism where the circle is. Diffluence. you'll be spitting supercells in that area lol
Screenshot_20220319-164634-524.png
 
Just a note, take instability values with a grain of salt right now, I can almost guarantee you will see a significant jump, seen it so many times.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Starting to wonder if this if Gonna be more of a QLCS threat, with how highly forced it is, with great low level kinematics, but weak SRWs past 6km into the anvil level
Click to expand...
For Carolinas or Alabama and Mississippi? Nam has been showing a big line.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Starting to wonder if this if Gonna be more of a QLCS threat, with how highly forced it is, with great low level kinematics, but weak SRWs past 6km into the anvil level
Click to expand...
Yup, very messy setup, likely quick into a QLCS. Probably textbook lower MS threat before transition, yatayatayata.
 
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