BMX EXTENED THE SLGT RISK AREA, KEPT EHN THE SAME
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0356 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/
Through Tuesday Morning.
High pressure over the area tonight will begin to shift east today.
However until it slides east of the area, we will remain in a
very dry airmass. Temperatures will generally be 70s. Tonight the
high should be to our east and southerly
flow will increase
moisture
in the area. Look for a much more mild night with lows in the upper
40s and low 50s. Should remain rain free for most of the night with
only increasing clouds. As we work into Tuesday morning look for
cloudy skies and some rain approaching the area, while the stronger
storms will be to our west. We could begin to see an increase in
rain showers after 10 AM in the south and west, so have included
some low end chances through 1 PM.
Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday.
We continue to expect a multi weather hazard day across Central
Alabama on Tuesday, mainly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
This will include strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large
hail.
Convection
will also produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall, and we
currently forecast 2-3" with locally higher amounts along and north
of I-20 and west of I-65, including the BHM
metro area. This could
lead to
flash flooding given favorable antecedent conditions (high
soil
moisture), as well as in poor drainage/urban areas. A tight
pressure
gradient and strong low-level
jet will also promote non-
thunderstorm wind gusts of 35-40 mph at times.
Latest forecast thinking has stayed in the same ball park, overall.
The signal for severe weather remains, and coincides with a broad
region of synoptic forcing approaching the Deep South on Tuesday.
This primarily stems from the an amplified upper-level
trough, as
well as additional support from a
shortwave ejection across the
lower Mississippi Valley late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Heights steadily fall through this time, and the
approaching 60+
kt southerly
LLJ will foster a corridor of
increasing
BL moisture/
theta-e from the Gulf. Dewpoints are forecast
to climb into the low to mid 60s as a result, and these values
should allow for
MLCAPE of 500-1,000
J/kg assuming mid-level lapse
rates remain in a range of 6-7
C/km. An abundance of wind
shear will
also be present, and favorable values reside in both deep-layer and
low-level parameters to support supercells; both line-embedded in the
approaching
MCS, or more discrete cells that could develop ahead of
the
MCS. Some HREF members (HRRR, NAM3,
NSSL WRF) suggest this could
occur by mid afternoon in our southwest counties due to little/no
CINH and abundant forcing aloft. Their
updraft strength will depend
on
CAPE profiles. Other
hi-res guidance favors a QLCS scenario, and
the overall
MCS could become quite messy as it impacts Central
Alabama.
Threat areas remain the same relatively speaking, and it`s the
quality of
BL moisture and surface-based
instability that have
hinged the forecast so far. Global models have struggled to bring
meaningful
CAPE northward, and the
ECMWF still favors a coastal
convection scenario owing to split
jet/upper-level
divergence. This
would mute
CAPE for interior portions of Alabama, inhibiting severe
potential. On the other hand, recent
hi-res guidance has suggested a
more robust
warm sector, and a more northward extent, for areas west
generally closer to the Mississippi state line. This was the main
reason for expanding the "Slight" area on tonight`s update. If more
meaningful dewpoints/
theta-e values can ascend to the north, severe
potential would certainly increase given the other supporting
parameters in place. All things considered, we could see severe
weather potential beginning as early as ~2 PM in the west (
GFS,
HRRR, HRW FV3 timing), or as late as ~5 PM (
NSSL WRF,
NAM, GDPS
timing). I adjusted our messaging/timing accordingly. Depending on
convective evolution, which is nearly impossible to accurately
predict right now, we could have storms lingering in our
south/southeast counties toward ~6 AM Wednesday. The "Enhanced" area
was left relatively unchanged as this remains to be the best overall
overlap of
thermodynamics/kinematics supportive of severe weather.
In near future forecast updates, we`ll
likely have need for a
Flood
Watch, as well as a Wind Advisory.