Severe 3/21-3/24 Severe Weather

[SD]

Even if not from the initial moisture plume you have possibly a good swath of near or at 1000j if sbcape that the HRRR shows during that time frame

It's interesting how much faster the hrrr is at establishing the SB cape in that area vs say the 3k

 

[Zander98al]

Going to be a long night in your neck of the woods. Lot of rouge supercells. @NorthDFWwx

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Zander98al]

It's interesting how much faster the hrrr is at establishing the SB cape in that area vs say the 3k

Yeah, I actually kinda side with the HRRR. Moisture is always downplayed until you get within a day range, I'm afraid your highest tornado potential will actually be that western half of Alabama if that discreet convection that HRRR is showing gets going. It really made convection discreet in Texas for today when it was looking more like a line. It'll be a litmus test of what happens in Texas

 

[Zander98al]

See how the HRRR does with these, it'll be big in establishing confidence in the rouge storms over MS/AL tommorow.

 

[HSVweather]

Flash Flood watch for portions of north AL.

 

[Zander98al]

This is the difference of what 24 hours of getting closer in the HRRR range does for storm mode....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah, I actually kinda side with the HRRR. Moisture is always downplayed until you get within a day range, I'm afraid your highest tornado potential will actually be that western half of Alabama if that discreet convection that HRRR is showing gets going. It really made convection discreet in Texas for today when it was looking more like a line. It'll be a litmus test of what happens in Texas

It’s different aloft wind parameter wise in texas today vs tomorrow across the SE

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Zander98al]

It’s different aloft wind parameter wise in texas today vs tomorrow across the SE

Even so, the accuracy of today's storms forecasted by the hrrr vs real time. will give higher confidence to tommorows prefrontal storms.

 

[Zander98al]

18z is being even more so bullish with warm sector prefront convection. Nvm that's to far ahead. Does have cells popping up near the qcls though.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[HSVweather]

 

[Zander98al]

That run of the 18z HRRR was a bit eye opening lol

 

[Snowfan]

 

[HSVweather]

 

[HSVweather]

I bet the chasers are going to get some good video this late afternoon evening.
There are several live streams available.

 

[Zander98al]

May have too much shear and rip the updrafts apart. with just 1000 cape

 

[Arcc]

Just FYI, Pivotal Weather has added 0-3km UH to the WRFs and HRRR which is awesome as it’s been lacking on most sites for years. That said, the color scale is different value wise from the 2-5km UH maps. Just so everyone knows.

 

[Snowfan]