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Severe 3/21-3/24 Severe Weather

@HSVweather Begging to become a bit more confident on the higher overall chance for tornadoes in the western half of Alabama more so than the delta, less significant paramters in Alabama than in the delta but nonetheless. It's shifting more and more east. Just a speed up or two of the timing and this is a full blown peak heating event for a good chunk of Alabama.

Then again if it speeds up will the warm sector still be ripe ? or will things mesh?
 
The highest chance for severe storms in my area looks to be on Wednesday 3/23. However, fortunately it doesn't appear to be a big deal though there probably will be a few severe storms. On the contrary, the better bet is for beneficial rainfall.
 
Zander98al said:
@HSVweather Begging to become a bit more confident on the higher overall chance for tornadoes in the western half of Alabama more so than the delta, less significant paramters in Alabama than in the delta but nonetheless. It's shifting more and more east. Just a speed up or two of the timing and this is a full blown peak heating event for a good chunk of Alabama.

Then again if it speeds up will the warm sector still be ripe ? or will things mesh?
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I think HRRR is the worst case or ceiling. Below sounding is 5pm around Meridian, MS off HRRR.
1647877678073.png
1647877730181.png
 
The HRRR has been pretty good, few flip flops at about the 10-18 hour range it seems especially with the last threat lol. I'd put my stock in the HRRR, not with the worst case scenario but it being the most correct. Still will see more shifts and parameter changes until we get deeper into the 18 hour range of the HRRR.
HSVweather said:
I think HRRR is the worst case or ceiling. Below sounding is 5pm around Meridian, MS off HRRR.
View attachment 115964
View attachment 115965
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Arcc said:
12z ARW WRF looks dead on to what I expect.
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WRF models hasnt been too good on prefrontal convection for the last few threats. It's been accurate on must stuff but seems like it has trouble with prefrontal stuff from what I have noticed.
 
This is actually just beyond the western edge of the slight risk area...

1647882842115.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...Southwest TX...TX Big Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211657Z - 211900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail are possible
across southwest TX and the TX Big Country for the next several
hours.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s/lows 70s
within the clearly west of the warm conveyor but east of the main
shortwave trough. Agitated cumulus developed quickly within this
area of clearly over the past half hour, indicative of the limited
convective inhibition and at least modest forcing for ascent.
Low-level flow in this region is a bit weaker and less backed than
areas farther east, while the southerly mid-level is stronger. This
results in a more southerly deep shear vector, with a
dryline-parallel orientation. This structure to the wind fields
suggests a more linear storm structure, somewhat limiting the
overall severe potential. Even so, a few damaging wind gusts and/or
isolated instances of hail are still possible over the next few
hours, and convective trends will be monitored closely. Greater
severe potential is anticipated later this afternoon northeast/east
into more of northwest and north-central/central TX.

..Mosier.. 03/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31400135 32430085 32740020 32449948 31659946 30489976
30120093 30440168 31400135
 
Zander98al said:
WRF models hasnt been too good on prefrontal convection for the last few threats. It's been accurate on must stuff but seems like it has trouble with prefrontal stuff from what I have noticed.
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If there is any more prefrontal convection that it shows, it will be a complete slop fest.
 
Arcc said:
If there is any more prefrontal convection that it shows, it will be a complete slop fest.
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Lol agreed, HRRR is pretty bullish with prefrontal stuff, I tend to Lean a bit more towards the HRRR, but have noticed the HRRR and NAM 3km are on a island with prefrontal stuff.
 
Zander98al said:
Lol agreed, HRRR is pretty bullish with prefrontal stuff, I tend to Lean a bit more towards the HRRR, but have noticed the HRRR and NAM 3km are on a island with prefrontal stuff.
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I've seen the hrrr and 3k do this prefrontal stuff around here when the flow of off the Atlantic and the storms are never as deep as modeled. Obviously this isn't apples to apples as the atmosphere across SE MS and SW AL is much more ripe for deeper rotating cells but it does make me raise an eyebrow
 
SD said:
I do think though there will be a period of time as the QLCS is moving east we may see some discrete cellular development near Nola into Southern MS into SW Al mid afternoon to around midnight but I'm not sure it'll be from that initial moisture plume late morning/early afternoon.
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Even if not from the initial moisture plume you have possibly a good swath of near or at 1000j if sbcape that the HRRR shows during that time frame
 
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