Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

[Caesar]

Icon 0z gif as compared to


when the ICON first picked up on Hurricane Debby this time last year and Debby's actual path.




The ICON is definitely something to watch!

 

[Caesar]

ICON 12z still showing activity along the East coast.

 

[NCSNOW]

Shear is saving the day out there currently

 

[lexxnchloe]

As long as the GFS makes doorknobs seem lively i have to assume everything on the EUROis fantasy.

 

[lexxnchloe]

AI joins the GFS showing nothing




Euro alot less active. Just 1 weak low.

 

[lexxnchloe]

SST's july 01



July 28




The super hot SST's in the NW ATL that were supposed to cause stabilty have cooled alot while the MDR has warmed alot. I dont think SST's can be blamed if the season remains dead.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Shows how little SST's matter

 

[Shaggy]

AI joins the GFS showing nothing

View attachment 173729


Euro alot less active. Just 1 weak low.


View attachment 173732

What do the ensembles look like?

 

[lexxnchloe]

What do the ensembles look like?

To be honest i never look at them

 

[lexxnchloe]

Nothing?

 

[lexxnchloe]

CFS gets a little active at the end of the month but the pattern is changing starting Fri and nothing gets close to the coast.

 

[Rain Cold]

Nothing?

View attachment 173736

High, not ideal

Shear + dust + sinking air = cfs + AIs + Joe Bastardi tweets

 

[vtrap90]

To be honest i never look at them

360hr tropical tidbits outputs, the occasional 600hr CFS, and the occasional X post from Big Joe are all you look at.

 

[lexxnchloe]

360hr tropical tidbits outputs, the occasional 600hr CFS, and the occasional X post from Big Joe are all you look at.

Like this

 

[vtrap90]

Like this

View attachment 173739

That one is 336 hours. Getting close to when it matters.

 

[Shaggy]

A 300 hour gfs op run is useless. I only look at the ensembles and they are showong signs of life. For example the 12z EPS

 

[GaWx]

My rough estimate of ACE progged by today’s (7/29/25) Euro Weeklies:

Aug 4-10: 3
Aug 11-17: 8
Aug 18-24: 11-12
Aug 25-31: 13-14

These 4 weeks would add to ~36, meaning a notably more active than active era normal for August should today’s EW verify closely.

Since the active era began, only 6 Augusts (1995-6, 1998-2000, and 2004) had significantly >36 ACE, while 18 had significantly <36. That leaves 6 Augusts fairly close to 36 (say 31-41): 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2021, and 2023.

After those 6 Augusts, how was each Sept vs 1995-2024 climo? 2005, 2010, 2021, and 2023 were active while 2007 was inactive and 2012 was near avg.

How were the Octs? 2005, 2010, and 2012 were above avg while 2021 and 2023 were near avg and 2007 was quiet.

Other than hoping for another 2007, this isn’t encouraging for someone who wants an inactive season, especially considering the progged weak La Niña per RONI.

 

[tennessee storm]

Tsunami warnings along west coast from a major quake in Russia ….

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27

I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move WNW to the N Leewards at 96. It becomes a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast:


I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.

 

[lexxnchloe]

0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27

I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move WNW to the N Leewards at 96. It becomes a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast:


I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.

I cant see anything on the latest GFS or EURO.

 

[GaWx]

I cant see anything on the latest GFS or EURO.

Good post. That’s why I said I was only getting “slightly concerned” in deference to the UKMET usually being conservative. The 0Z UKMET is the only major 18Z/0Z global (and now I can say the same for 6Z runs) with anything even close to a TD from this. Also, recent GFS/Euro/CMC ensemble runs have had almost nothing. Earlier UK runs had only a disturbance though distinct. One has to go back to yesterday’s 12Z CMC/JMA/ICON to find something close to a TD on any other global run from this:

 

[JHS]

We could use a tropical storm right now in the Carolinas and GA. That's the only way we break the major drought we are about to go into.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'll definitely be surprised if there isn't a homegrown threat or two in the coming months, but if you're curious if I'm interested, the answer is absolutely not.

I'll pass on a Helene and even a Michael, the latter of which was just a bad, but not disastrous storm here (but would be a disaster for south GA, which has had to deal with 2 major hurricane problems in the past 7 years, apparently they had just finished up cleaning up in Albany/Valdosta from Michael when Helene struck).

 

[JHS]

I'll definitely be surprised if there isn't a homegrown threat or two in the coming months, but if you're curious if I'm interested, the answer is absolutely not.

I'll pass on a Helene and even a Michael, the latter of which was just a bad, but not disastrous storm here (but would be a disaster for south GA, which has had to deal with 2 major hurricane problems in the past 7 years, apparently they had just finished up cleaning up in Albany/Valdosta from Michael when Helene struck).

It would not take a major system to break the drought we are going into though. A storm like Hanna in 2002 or Beryl in 1994 would do it and neither of them hit hurricane strength. Beryl was a serious tornado maker though, but I don't think Hanna was. You are right about Helene and Michael though. We do NOT need storms like those 2.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[GaWx]

Followup: Unlike the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET has no TD.

 

[Arcc]

Bandwagon.

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS continues to show nothing and either the MJO never gets to the ATL or it doesnt matter. On the good side, thats another very nice cool high for the East. It looks like Aug wont have prolonged never ending heat.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Even record low dust isnt helping



Dust concentrations to end July were running as low as we’ve seen them in late September, so with the exception of the occasional outbreak, don’t expect dust to be a big player this hurricane season.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Shaggy]

Ensembles still look active

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Brent]

Update

 

[GaWx]

Good news regarding microwave scans:

 

[GaWx]

Though 8/4-10 dropped due to no support likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, today’s Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole:

% of 2005-24 averages:
8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.)
8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.)
8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.)
8/25-31: 110% (same as yest.)

Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger! Of course lexx won’t shoot me lol.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Though 8/4-10 dropped due to no support likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, today’s Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole:

% of 2005-24 averages:
8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.)
8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.)
8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.)
8/25-31: 110% (same as yest.)

Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger! Of course lexx won’t shoot me lol.

Would a cream pie to the face be ok?

 

[GaWx]

The UKMET is back to having a TD form on the 0Z. But unlike yesterday’s 0Z, which developed the current central MDR wave that was moving NNW to threaten the SE US, this one forms on an old front just off the SE US coast. After forming, it crawls NNE to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast remaining as a TD:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 32.0N 75.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2025 96 31.4N 75.7W 1010 29
1200UTC 04.08.2025 108 32.1N 74.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 05.08.2025 120 32.1N 75.0W 1013 25
1200UTC 05.08.2025 132 33.1N 73.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 06.08.2025 144 34.3N 73.9W 1015 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 156 35.7N 73.6W 1014 30
0000UTC 07.08.2025 168 37.6N 73.0W 1012 28

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[GaWx]

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a TD from off the SE US from a frontal zone with no notable strengthening and with very slow movement. This run has it initially moving NE/NNE before turning to the WSW and then SW a couple hundred miles off NC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.9N 73.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2025 72 32.7N 72.9W 1010 26
0000UTC 04.08.2025 84 33.1N 71.9W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 96 33.9N 70.8W 1010 29
0000UTC 05.08.2025 108 34.3N 70.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 05.08.2025 120 35.1N 69.4W 1014 30
0000UTC 06.08.2025 132 35.8N 69.2W 1014 31
1200UTC 06.08.2025 144 36.4N 69.1W 1015 30
0000UTC 07.08.2025 156 36.0N 69.8W 1015 31
1200UTC 07.08.2025 168 35.5N 70.4W 1016 29

 

[GaWx]

August ACE forecast: Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday’s (using 2005-24 base)

8/4-10: 0.9 vs 0.8
8/11-17: 1.5 vs 1.9
8/18-24: 1.6 vs 2.1
8/25-31: 1.2 vs 1.1

Overall, I’d call this slightly less active than yesterday’s run but still a good bit more active than 2005-24 average ACE for August as a whole.