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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

SST's july 01
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July 28


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The super hot SST's in the NW ATL that were supposed to cause stabilty have cooled alot while the MDR has warmed alot. I dont think SST's can be blamed if the season remains dead.
 
My rough estimate of ACE progged by today’s (7/29/25) Euro Weeklies:

Aug 4-10: 3
Aug 11-17: 8
Aug 18-24: 11-12
Aug 25-31: 13-14

These 4 weeks would add to ~36, meaning a notably more active than active era normal for August should today’s EW verify closely.

Since the active era began, only 6 Augusts (1995-6, 1998-2000, and 2004) had significantly >36 ACE, while 18 had significantly <36. That leaves 6 Augusts fairly close to 36 (say 31-41): 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2021, and 2023.

After those 6 Augusts, how was each Sept vs 1995-2024 climo? 2005, 2010, 2021, and 2023 were active while 2007 was inactive and 2012 was near avg.

How were the Octs? 2005, 2010, and 2012 were above avg while 2021 and 2023 were near avg and 2007 was quiet.

Other than hoping for another 2007, this isn’t encouraging for someone who wants an inactive season, especially considering the progged weak La Niña per RONI.
 
0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27

I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move WNW to the N Leewards at 96. It becomes a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast:


I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.
 
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GaWx said:
0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27

I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move WNW to the N Leewards at 96. It becomes a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast:


I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.
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I cant see anything on the latest GFS or EURO.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I cant see anything on the latest GFS or EURO.
Click to expand...

Good post. That’s why I said I was only getting “slightly concerned” in deference to the UKMET usually being conservative. The 0Z UKMET is the only major 18Z/0Z global (and now I can say the same for 6Z runs) with anything even close to a TD from this. Also, recent GFS/Euro/CMC ensemble runs have had almost nothing. Earlier UK runs had only a disturbance though distinct. One has to go back to yesterday’s 12Z CMC/JMA/ICON to find something close to a TD on any other global run from this:

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I'll definitely be surprised if there isn't a homegrown threat or two in the coming months, but if you're curious if I'm interested, the answer is absolutely not.

I'll pass on a Helene and even a Michael, the latter of which was just a bad, but not disastrous storm here (but would be a disaster for south GA, which has had to deal with 2 major hurricane problems in the past 7 years, apparently they had just finished up cleaning up in Albany/Valdosta from Michael when Helene struck).
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll definitely be surprised if there isn't a homegrown threat or two in the coming months, but if you're curious if I'm interested, the answer is absolutely not.

I'll pass on a Helene and even a Michael, the latter of which was just a bad, but not disastrous storm here (but would be a disaster for south GA, which has had to deal with 2 major hurricane problems in the past 7 years, apparently they had just finished up cleaning up in Albany/Valdosta from Michael when Helene struck).
Click to expand...
It would not take a major system to break the drought we are going into though. A storm like Hanna in 2002 or Beryl in 1994 would do it and neither of them hit hurricane strength. Beryl was a serious tornado maker though, but I don't think Hanna was. You are right about Helene and Michael though. We do NOT need storms like those 2.
 
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