lexxnchloe
Member
GFS and EURO have basically nothing thru mid-AUG. Is the MJO still coming?
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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Shaggy
Member
What do their ensembles show?
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Looks tepid
Nothing thrilling for mid-AUG.
Nothing thrilling for mid-AUG.
There's a ton of dry air working on, in, around, and through the MDR over the next two weeks. Not even going to try and upload a gif because the file is always too big. Anyway, here's an image. It ain't great.
lexxnchloe
Member
Brent
Member
Update
I would expect things will pick up after August 15th like they usually do....don't know why anyone is surprised it's dead right now. Heck in 2022 we had zero storms mid July to September lol and Ian was almost in October so just take a break til then
I would expect things will pick up after August 15th like they usually do....don't know why anyone is surprised it's dead right now. Heck in 2022 we had zero storms mid July to September lol and Ian was almost in October so just take a break til then
lexxnchloe
Member
Im not sure if this is the same TD the ukmet was showing
It’s from the same front. GFS also has it.
0Z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.2N 77.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2025 36 33.2N 77.1W 1015 31
0000UTC 03.08.2025 48 32.9N 75.5W 1010 33
1200UTC 03.08.2025 60 33.1N 73.4W 1009 35
0000UTC 04.08.2025 72 33.9N 72.2W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 84 34.9N 71.4W 1010 27
0000UTC 05.08.2025 96 35.5N 69.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 05.08.2025 108 35.7N 68.2W 1015 25
0000UTC 06.08.2025 120 35.8N 66.8W 1016 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 132 36.6N 65.4W 1017 28
0000UTC 07.08.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.0N 63.8W
Shaggy
Member
Super far out there but the ensembles remain busier than the ops
lexxnchloe
Member
For the first time this season, the latest UKMET (12Z) has a TC in the MDR (moving WNW):
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27
lexxnchloe
Member
AI gets active again
Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas.
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro has something in the MDR. GFS nada
Followup for same AEW: 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now:
*Edit: I’m counting a whopping 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this one AEW. That’s quite high for this far out for the often rather conservative EPS. In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.
Edit: The new Euro Weeklies are notably active again for mid to late August.
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JHS
Member
We could use a system in the Carolinas and GA right now to break the severe drought we are going into. Hopefully the models are on to something as long as it does not get too strong.
lexxnchloe
Member
AI a little active, GFS dead
Shaggy
Member
Gfs OP is dead. GFS ensembles are on fire
Brent
Member
Right why even look at the op that changes every 6 hours. I don't get it. It's pointless and a waste of time and bandwidth. The ensembles are always better
Like come on
Shaggy
Member
Even of the gfs showed a 950mb monster cane hitting the EC at 300 hours its 100% going to be wrong. The ensemble however has a huge increase in activity at 18z.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro
AI
GFS
All 3 at 360
AI
GFS
All 3 at 360
lexxnchloe
Member
Dead thru the 18th. Until the GFS and EURO both agree that storms will form i have to think the euro is all fantasy.
Brent
Member
I keep telling you to wait... Most of the activity last few years has been in September and October anyway. I don't know what the point is of posting every model run to show nothing
We're gonna have plenty of hurricanes at some point. Believe me
We're gonna have plenty of hurricanes at some point. Believe me
lexxnchloe
Member
Perhaps, but if the AUG burst doesnt happen even JB says another dead time is coming in Sept
Brent
Member
It's been dead plenty of times right now and goes off almost every year
Why are you worried... Would it even been that bad if the season was dead
???
I kind of hope everyone is wrong and it is dead honestly
Do you honestly want another Florence into Wilmington?
Oh look a thing
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I think with some of there’s not storms every 3 days from June to November then it’s dead. I wonder if the same people ever went through a Fran, Dennis or Floyd? Yes it’s a weather site but posting models every 6 hours doesn’t change an outcome!
Brent
Member
Right how anyone in coastal NC can be cheering for a hurricane is beyond me. Did we not just see what Helene did in the mountains???? In the final days of September like I said before
Like do people actually want that on the coast? This isn't like snow
lexxnchloe
Member
Tell that to all the Hurricane and tornado chasers who hope and pray for tornados and hurricanes to form, and they want cat 4's and 5's.
lexxnchloe
Member
1. I’m not at all defending them for praying for violent storms away from their homes, but that’s not apples to apples as they’re chasing as opposed to being home.
2. 12z UK: 3rd run in row w/MDR TD moving WNW
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 41.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2025 120 14.4N 43.3W 1009 28
0000UTC 08.08.2025 132 16.2N 46.1W 1009 29
1200UTC 08.08.2025 144 17.6N 49.2W 1010 28
0000UTC 09.08.2025 156 19.7N 52.0W 1011 28
1200UTC 09.08.2025 168 21.2N 55.3W 1011 34
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
What a system off of the Argentina coast about to usher in a cold air mass to southern Chile and Argentina
Brent
Member
Yeah it's a lot different when you leave to go back to your cozy house far inland
Anyways.... I think things are gonna start picking up soon. Patience
Invest 95L has been designated for the area off of NC, which may actually be just one of two potential systems to develop off of NC this week (the 2nd potential tropical system is what the 18Z gfs went gaga with):
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Western Atlantic (AL95):
A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary
about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
marginally favorable for this system to potentially become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while
it moves east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of
North Carolina. Environmental conditions become less conducive for
development after Monday. For additional information, including gale
warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support some
gradual development of the wave during the middle to latter part of
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
———————
Meanwhile, the latest Euro Weeklies continue to suggest that quite an active August is favored.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Western Atlantic (AL95):
A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary
about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
marginally favorable for this system to potentially become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while
it moves east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of
North Carolina. Environmental conditions become less conducive for
development after Monday. For additional information, including gale
warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support some
gradual development of the wave during the middle to latter part of
next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
———————
Meanwhile, the latest Euro Weeklies continue to suggest that quite an active August is favored.
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Brent
Member
For the record since it was mentioned the hurricane chasers I know on Facebook are aware it's early August and usually quiet now. They fully expect things are gonna get busy at some point. They aren't complaining and posting everyday about how it's dead either. Everyone has been through this before many years. It's normal
And we haven't had a dead year in 10 years so it's not like they haven't had plenty of chances to chase. That's another subject
So just relax and enjoy the lull while we have it... Were gonna be very busy soon enough
And we haven't had a dead year in 10 years so it's not like they haven't had plenty of chances to chase. That's another subject
So just relax and enjoy the lull while we have it... Were gonna be very busy soon enough