Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

lexxnchloe · 2025-07-31T17:32:32-0400

GaWx said:
August ACE forecast: Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday’s (using 2005-24 base)

8/4-10: 0.9 vs 0.8
8/11-17: 1.5 vs 1.9
8/18-24: 1.6 vs 2.1
8/25-31: 1.2 vs 1.1

Overall, I’d call this slightly less active than yesterday’s run but still a good bit more active than 2005-24 average ACE for August as a whole.

GFS and EURO have basically nothing thru mid-AUG. Is the MJO still coming?

Shaggy · 2025-07-31T17:35:59-0400

lexxnchloe said:
GFS and EURO have basically nothing thru mid-AUG. Is the MJO still coming?

What do their ensembles show?

lexxnchloe · 2025-07-31T17:39:10-0400

Shaggy said:
What do their ensembles show?

I do not know. I can show this for what its worth

lexxnchloe · 2025-07-31T17:43:03-0400

Looks tepid

Nothing thrilling for mid-AUG.

Rain Cold · 2025-07-31T18:46:23-0400

There's a ton of dry air working on, in, around, and through the MDR over the next two weeks. Not even going to try and upload a gif because the file is always too big. Anyway, here's an image. It ain't great.

lexxnchloe · 2025-07-31T19:21:32-0400

Brent · 2025-07-31T21:41:40-0400

Update

I would expect things will pick up after August 15th like they usually do....don't know why anyone is surprised it's dead right now. Heck in 2022 we had zero storms mid July to September lol and Ian was almost in October so just take a break til then

lexxnchloe · 2025-08-01T00:27:58-0400

Im not sure if this is the same TD the ukmet was showing

GaWx · 2025-08-01T00:58:27-0400

lexxnchloe said:
Im not sure if this is the same TD the ukmet was showing

View attachment 173785

It’s from the same front. GFS also has it.

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.2N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2025 36 33.2N 77.1W 1015 31
0000UTC 03.08.2025 48 32.9N 75.5W 1010 33
1200UTC 03.08.2025 60 33.1N 73.4W 1009 35
0000UTC 04.08.2025 72 33.9N 72.2W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 84 34.9N 71.4W 1010 27
0000UTC 05.08.2025 96 35.5N 69.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 05.08.2025 108 35.7N 68.2W 1015 25
0000UTC 06.08.2025 120 35.8N 66.8W 1016 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 132 36.6N 65.4W 1017 28
0000UTC 07.08.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.0N 63.8W

Shaggy · 2025-08-01T08:32:59-0400

Super far out there but the ensembles remain busier than the ops

lexxnchloe · 2025-08-01T12:32:23-0400

GaWx said:
It’s from the same front. GFS also has it.

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.2N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2025 36 33.2N 77.1W 1015 31
0000UTC 03.08.2025 48 32.9N 75.5W 1010 33
1200UTC 03.08.2025 60 33.1N 73.4W 1009 35
0000UTC 04.08.2025 72 33.9N 72.2W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 84 34.9N 71.4W 1010 27
0000UTC 05.08.2025 96 35.5N 69.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 05.08.2025 108 35.7N 68.2W 1015 25
0000UTC 06.08.2025 120 35.8N 66.8W 1016 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 132 36.6N 65.4W 1017 28
0000UTC 07.08.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.0N 63.8W

Models off and on show something

GaWx · 2025-08-01T12:35:56-0400

For the first time this season, the latest UKMET (12Z) has a TC in the MDR (moving WNW):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27

lexxnchloe · 2025-08-01T13:41:02-0400

AI gets active again

GaWx · 2025-08-01T14:14:30-0400

Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas.

lexxnchloe · 2025-08-01T14:14:55-0400

Euro has something in the MDR. GFS nada

GaWx · 2025-08-01T15:14:29-0400

GaWx said:
Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas.

Followup for same AEW: 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now:

*Edit: I’m counting a whopping 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this one AEW. That’s quite high for this far out for the often rather conservative EPS. In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.

Edit: The new Euro Weeklies are notably active again for mid to late August.

Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

Pattern Cha...Loading...