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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

GaWx said:
August ACE forecast: Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday’s (using 2005-24 base)

8/4-10: 0.9 vs 0.8
8/11-17: 1.5 vs 1.9
8/18-24: 1.6 vs 2.1
8/25-31: 1.2 vs 1.1

Overall, I’d call this slightly less active than yesterday’s run but still a good bit more active than 2005-24 average ACE for August as a whole.
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GFS and EURO have basically nothing thru mid-AUG. Is the MJO still coming?
 
lexxnchloe said:
Im not sure if this is the same TD the ukmet was showing

View attachment 173785
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It’s from the same front. GFS also has it.

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.2N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2025 36 33.2N 77.1W 1015 31
0000UTC 03.08.2025 48 32.9N 75.5W 1010 33
1200UTC 03.08.2025 60 33.1N 73.4W 1009 35
0000UTC 04.08.2025 72 33.9N 72.2W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 84 34.9N 71.4W 1010 27
0000UTC 05.08.2025 96 35.5N 69.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 05.08.2025 108 35.7N 68.2W 1015 25
0000UTC 06.08.2025 120 35.8N 66.8W 1016 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 132 36.6N 65.4W 1017 28
0000UTC 07.08.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.0N 63.8W
 
GaWx said:
It’s from the same front. GFS also has it.

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.2N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2025 36 33.2N 77.1W 1015 31
0000UTC 03.08.2025 48 32.9N 75.5W 1010 33
1200UTC 03.08.2025 60 33.1N 73.4W 1009 35
0000UTC 04.08.2025 72 33.9N 72.2W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 84 34.9N 71.4W 1010 27
0000UTC 05.08.2025 96 35.5N 69.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 05.08.2025 108 35.7N 68.2W 1015 25
0000UTC 06.08.2025 120 35.8N 66.8W 1016 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 132 36.6N 65.4W 1017 28
0000UTC 07.08.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.0N 63.8W
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Models off and on show something

1754065938312.png
 
For the first time this season, the latest UKMET (12Z) has a TC in the MDR (moving WNW):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27
 
Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas.
 
GaWx said:
Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas.
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Followup for same AEW: 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now:

IMG_4219.png

*Edit: I’m counting a whopping 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this one AEW. That’s quite high for this far out for the often rather conservative EPS. In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.

Edit: The new Euro Weeklies are notably active again for mid to late August.
 
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GaWx said:
Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas.
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We could use a system in the Carolinas and GA right now to break the severe drought we are going into. Hopefully the models are on to something as long as it does not get too strong.
 
Brent said:
Right why even look at the op that changes every 6 hours. I don't get it. It's pointless and a waste of time and bandwidth. The ensembles are always better

Like come on
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Even of the gfs showed a 950mb monster cane hitting the EC at 300 hours its 100% going to be wrong. The ensemble however has a huge increase in activity at 18z.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_65.png
 
I keep telling you to wait... Most of the activity last few years has been in September and October anyway. I don't know what the point is of posting every model run to show nothing

We're gonna have plenty of hurricanes at some point. Believe me
 
Brent said:
I keep telling you to wait... Most of the activity last few years has been in September and October anyway. I don't know what the point is of posting every model run to show nothing

We're gonna have plenty of hurricanes at some point. Believe me
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Perhaps, but if the AUG burst doesnt happen even JB says another dead time is coming in Sept
 
lexxnchloe said:
Perhaps, but if the AUG burst doesnt happen even JB says another dead time is coming in Sept
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It's been dead plenty of times right now and goes off almost every year

Why are you worried... Would it even been that bad if the season was dead
???

I kind of hope everyone is wrong and it is dead honestly

Do you honestly want another Florence into Wilmington?

Oh look a thing two_atl_7d0 (25).png
 
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Brent said:
It's been dead plenty of times right now and goes off almost every year

Why are you worried... Would it even been that bad if the season was dead
???

I kind of hope everyone is wrong and it is dead honestly

Do you honestly want another Florence into Wilmington?

Oh look a thing View attachment 173825
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I think with some of there’s not storms every 3 days from June to November then it’s dead. I wonder if the same people ever went through a Fran, Dennis or Floyd? Yes it’s a weather site but posting models every 6 hours doesn’t change an outcome!
 
jeremyt said:
I think with some of there’s not storms every 3 days from June to November then it’s dead. I wonder if the same people ever went through a Fran, Dennis or Floyd? Yes it’s a weather site but posting models every 6 hours doesn’t change an outcome!
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Right how anyone in coastal NC can be cheering for a hurricane is beyond me. Did we not just see what Helene did in the mountains???? In the final days of September like I said before

Like do people actually want that on the coast? This isn't like snow
 
Brent said:
Right how anyone in coastal NC can be cheering for a hurricane is beyond me. Did we not just see what Helene did in the mountains???? In the final days of September like I said before

Like do people actually want that on the coast? This isn't like snow
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Tell that to all the Hurricane and tornado chasers who hope and pray for tornados and hurricanes to form, and they want cat 4's and 5's.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Tell that to all the Hurricane and tornado chasers who hope and pray for tornados and hurricanes to form, and they want cat 4's and 5's.
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1. I’m not at all defending them for praying for violent storms away from their homes, but that’s not apples to apples as they’re chasing as opposed to being home.

2. 12z UK: 3rd run in row w/MDR TD moving WNW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 41.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2025 120 14.4N 43.3W 1009 28
0000UTC 08.08.2025 132 16.2N 46.1W 1009 29
1200UTC 08.08.2025 144 17.6N 49.2W 1010 28
0000UTC 09.08.2025 156 19.7N 52.0W 1011 28
1200UTC 09.08.2025 168 21.2N 55.3W 1011 34
 
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