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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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Brent said:
Some of these GFS runs for 95L would be almost unheard of this early. If this becomes a hurricane before the Caribbean there are no real analogs recently
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There's no analogs for these SSTs either.


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12Z:
GFS/ICON/CMC/Euro/UKMET/GEFS/GEPS look pretty similar to their respective earlier runs. Im still waiting to see if the ICON and especially UKMET are going to do more with this. The JMA fwiw is significantly stronger through the Caribbean with a strong TS in the W Car. The Euro ens mean looks a bit further SW with just a few either recurving off the SE or hitting FL. Many hit from Nicaragua N to the central US Gulf coast.
 
I'm definitely very interested to see how much strengthening occurs in the next few days. No doubt there will probably be a stretch of hostile conditions in the Caribbean. That's the part about this that would be record setting if it happens
 
The forecasted Sahra Dust (Layer) may put the Kibosh, on anything forming, though..

that said ..
 
SD said:
This would be very nice since it's not overly strong ands would likely be a drought buster but there's almost 0 support right now from the eps and a low percentage from the gefs. Either the gfs is going to score a big W or be way offView attachment 148178
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I know where I'd play my bets!! It is however a testament to the potential of the cane season being active as it seems there's already been a steady stream of invest for June
 
As the subtropical ridge gets pushed east and weakens a little late in the week the pattern becomes more conducive to any system in the Caribbean to gain latitude. Not sure if Beryl could do it, it may already be too far WSW unless it gets tied up in the islands or the Yucatan but a trailing system would be in a prime spot
 
SD said:
As the subtropical ridge gets pushed east and weakens a little late in the week the pattern becomes more conducive to any system in the Caribbean to gain latitude. Not sure if Beryl could do it, it may already be too far WSW unless it gets tied up in the islands or the Yucatan but a trailing system would be in a prime spot
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Yeah if the SAR shifts east later in the season with the ocean temps like they are and low shear we in trouble......
 
SD said:
As the subtropical ridge gets pushed east and weakens a little late in the week the pattern becomes more conducive to any system in the Caribbean to gain latitude. Not sure if Beryl could do it, it may already be too far WSW unless it gets tied up in the islands or the Yucatan but a trailing system would be in a prime spot
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There is that AOI behind Beryl but it depends on how Beryl's wake affects it.
 
NCSNOW said:
Down here at the Beach. Water temp was 83 last night per the phone,but it feels warmer than that. Warmest Ive ever stepped in to the touch last evening.
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If you're in brunswick county keep an eye in the water. Portugese man-o-war have been showing up. Also been an unusual number of Gators being photographed on the beaches.
 
1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
Satellite derived winds and preliminary aircraft reconnaissance
data indicate that the area of low pressure located over the
southern portion of the Bay of Campeche has become better organized
during the past few hours and a tropical depression could be
forming. The system is moving toward west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph and is expected to approach the eastern coast of Mexico tonight
and move inland on Monday morning. Consequently, a Tropical Storm
Watch may be required later today for a portion of the eastern coast
of Mexico. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico
today and into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher
terrain. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is currently
investigating the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
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Total # of NS through July 1st (excluding NS before May 1):

2024: 3 with small chance for 4 due to 96L
2023: 3
2022: 3
2021: 5
2020: 4
2019: 1
2018: 1
2017: 2
2016: 3
2015: 2
2014: 1
2013: 2
2012: 4
2011: 1
2010: 1
2009: 0
2008: 1
2007: 2
2006: 1
2005: 2
2004: 0
2003: 1
2002: 0
2001: 1
2000: 0
1999: 1
1998: 0
1997: 2
1996: 1
1995: 1

AVG 1995-2023: 1.5

So going back to 1995, only 2021, 2020, and 2012 had a higher #.
 
weather bubba said:
My wife's name is Debbie. I'm looking forward to seeing how strong future tropical storm Debbie gets and where it goes. My wife is usually sweet and easy going. We'll see what kind of problems Debbie the storm causes, It might be costly, like my wife's spending habits;).
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Hopefully it will go to Dallas.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Looks like nothing for the next few weeks
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Maybe there won’t be any more TCs for a few weeks after Beryl is done and it wouldn’t at all be surprising as July is often quiet (I’m not predicting the alternative). After all the last 2 years were very active in June before a mainly quiet July and into much of Aug. But keep in mind that just one week before Beryl formed it was pretty quiet on the models. And then June suddenly ended up with 3 instead of just one NS.
 
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There is no real sign of any of these drilling down from 500mb yet but the upper lows retrograding under the strong are at least worth watching.

Overall though mjo looks pretty unfavorable for the Atlantic for atleast the next 2 weeks.
 
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