• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
I just did an analysis of CONUS landfalls for RONI ASO -0.50 to -1.00 vs sub -1.00. E = east coast and G = Gulf coast including FL Keys; if storm landfalled on both as a H, I counted it as 1/2 E and 1/2 G (1995’s Erin and 2022’s Ian)

ASO RONI -0.50 to -1.00: every season at least 1
1954: 3 (3E)
1955: 2 (2E)
1964: 4 (2E, 2G)
1970: 1 (1G)
1983: 1 (1G)
1995: 2 (0.5E, 1.5G)
1999: 3 (1E, 2G)
2011: 1 (1E)
2017: 3 (3G)
2021: 2 (2G)
AVG: 2.20 (0.95E, 1.25G)


ASO RONI sub -1.00: less active avg despite 2020
1973: 0
1975: 1 (1G)
1988: 1 (1G)
1998: 3 (1E, 2G)
2007: 1 (1G)
2010: 0
2016: 2 (1E, 1G)
2020: 6 (1E, 5G)
2022: 2 (1.5E, 0.5G)
AVG: 1.78 (0.50E, 1.28G)

Analysis of ASO RONI wk vs mod+:
-sig. more CONUS H landfalls (100%/70% had 1+/2+)
-sig. more E coast landfalls (60%/30% had 1+/2+)
-slightly fewer G coast landfalls due to 2020 being active
-E being nearly as active as G for wk is relatively high for E
-2020 ASO is mod+ per RONI but is only wk per ONI

H tracks:

NHC Data Archive

www.nhc.noaa.gov

RONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
 
Last edited:
2 possibles on the gfs

1717027697806.png





1717027728766.png




TWC was mentioning a wave interacting with a front which might be causing possible num 2
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top