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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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NHC

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become conducive for some development in a day or two, and a
tropical depression could form around midweek while the system is
near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles or
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

two_atl_7d0.png
 
lexxnchloe said:
I think this one is dead. Not even a strong wave on the 06GFS and weaker and further east on Euro. If there is good news the east pac is much less busy

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It’s really not smart to be basing that on the operational runs. Just looking at both the GEFS and EPS, there is still a very strong storm signal there. Also the NHC is now up to a 40-60% chance of development in the next 7days.
 
Just like is the case for the 12Z ICON, the 12Z UKMET is the first run with a TC from this C MDR disturbance (may be due to it just coming in range since TCG isn’t til the end of the run). It is in the NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 25.0N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 168 25.0N 77.6W 1012 29
 
JHS said:
The GFS has it again too 1005MB on central gulf coast at hour 213.
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The 12Z GFS is the first GFS with a TC from this since yesterday’s 6Z.

Edit: 12Z CMC also has this again with a strong TS hitting the FL panhandle. That means that the most recent runs of the 5 most followed globals now have this.
 
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It looks to me on the GFS the atlantic wave doesnt develop and recurves. This is from something different

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lexxnchloe said:
It looks to me on the GFS the atlantic wave doesnt develop and recurves. This is from something different

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I don’t think so. Look closely at the path of the 850 mb vorticity. It looks to me like the same disturbance all of the other models are developing.

The 12Z GEFS is less active than the most active to date 6Z GEFS, which had 5 TCs (all of which hit the CONUS). This run has 3 TCs, all of which either hit the E coast of FL or stay offshore the E coast. So, no Gulf TCs on the 12Z GEFS. The 6Z had one.
It is less active than the 6Z, but it is at least as active as any of the other GEFS runs to date. So, not a trend.
 
How about this change on the 12Z Euro?! It is much weaker (maybe a TD at most/1008 mb) that goes up the E seaboard from NC.
 
snowc said:
AW CRAP HERE WE GO AGAIN
Now I am scared. REALLY scared. Possible Florence remake?
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Too early to see what happens. Anything from a Gulf Coast impact, East Coast impact, and OTS is on the table. The strength on the possible Debby depends on how it does this week.
 
Exact path of doria 1971 only much weaker

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After reaching tropical storm status, Doria quickly intensified as its wind field expanded while moving northward. The minimum central pressure quickly dropped, as well, and late on August 27, Doria reached its peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) while making landfall on North Carolina near Morehead City. The storm maintained its peak winds as it moved north-northeastward through North Carolina, and weakened slightly to a 60 mph (97 km/h) tropical storm after entering Virginia on August 28. Doria turned to the northeast, passing through the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula before entering southern New Jersey. It paralleled the state a short distance inland, and after moving through New York City Doria became extratropical over northwestern Maine on August 29. The extratropical remnant continued northeastward until losing its identity near the border of New Brunswick and Quebec in Canada.[2]
 
lexxnchloe said:
Exact path of doria 1971 only much weaker

View attachment 148883



View attachment 148884



After reaching tropical storm status, Doria quickly intensified as its wind field expanded while moving northward. The minimum central pressure quickly dropped, as well, and late on August 27, Doria reached its peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) while making landfall on North Carolina near Morehead City. The storm maintained its peak winds as it moved north-northeastward through North Carolina, and weakened slightly to a 60 mph (97 km/h) tropical storm after entering Virginia on August 28. Doria turned to the northeast, passing through the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula before entering southern New Jersey. It paralleled the state a short distance inland, and after moving through New York City Doria became extratropical over northwestern Maine on August 29. The extratropical remnant continued northeastward until losing its identity near the border of New Brunswick and Quebec in Canada.[2]
Click to expand...
And Isaias
 
lexxnchloe said:
Exact path of doria 1971 only much weaker

View attachment 148883



View attachment 148884



After reaching tropical storm status, Doria quickly intensified as its wind field expanded while moving northward. The minimum central pressure quickly dropped, as well, and late on August 27, Doria reached its peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) while making landfall on North Carolina near Morehead City. The storm maintained its peak winds as it moved north-northeastward through North Carolina, and weakened slightly to a 60 mph (97 km/h) tropical storm after entering Virginia on August 28. Doria turned to the northeast, passing through the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula before entering southern New Jersey. It paralleled the state a short distance inland, and after moving through New York City Doria became extratropical over northwestern Maine on August 29. The extratropical remnant continued northeastward until losing its identity near the border of New Brunswick and Quebec in Canada.[2]
Click to expand...

Despite the 12Z Euro being much weaker, the more reliable ensembles (12Z EPS) are still quite active and still are heavily favoring either near or offshore the US E coast with just a couple of members with a TC in the E GOM.
 
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