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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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BirdManDoomW said:
We need some fish storms? I haven’t looked but haven’t every single storm hit land so far?! Waves is enough for me. Enough action this year for the US. Give Canada a little storm or Bermuda and call it.
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Yes some will go fish but unlike the last few years some wont. Looks like the general track this season if west of bermuda while the last many years its been well east of Bermuda
 
Good news on the 0Z UKMET, which has this for the first time: at the end it is moving N at 73W implying it would very likely miss the CONUS on this run. Please stay far away!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.5N 73.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 168 23.1N 73.2W 1008 31
 
0Z GFS: recurves the AEW safely E of the US E coast (72-3W)
 
The mean of the 0Z GEFS is a bit further west than most of the recent runs implying a higher chance for a CONUS hit than those runs.
 
0Z Euro: heading N at 240 at 40N, 67W aiming toward E ME, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia
 
0Z EPS mean is E of the more threatening GEFS with very few in the Gulf and most members recurving E of the US. A nontrivial number still hit the E coast, however. So, a long way to go!
 
12Z CMC: recurve E of Bermuda

12Z UKMET: forms NE of SE Bahamas moving N but shortly after turns NW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 23.1N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2024 156 23.9N 71.7W 1007 37
1200UTC 16.08.2024 168 24.7N 72.5W 1005 36
 
12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.
 
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Looks like the Euro has it following the weakness left by the weak LP that forms over the SE and moves out to sea. Guess the track will partially depend on whether this LP actually forms and, if so, the timing of it. UKMET also shows the same LP forming.
 
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