Brent
Member
Looks like it's time to repeat Beryl
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter lexxnchloe
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NoSnowATL
Member
I think SAL will have more weight into the matrix when they start doing the predictions next year.
NoSnowATL
Member
Congratulation Big Bend.
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro develops a depression but ridging is gone.
Downeastnc
Member
Meanwhile in EPAC
Brent
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Not much noise on the short term horizon. CV season should start producing here soon, climo clock says its about time. Jury will be rendering its verdict over next 3-4 weeks.
Brent
Member
August 20th is usually the date to watch. A lot of years have had a big flip around then
2017 is the big one recently... Harvey and Irma
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lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
The 1010mb low in the MDR is what the Euro develop
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024
We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active
Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the
hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near
record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more
conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and
intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind
shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of
a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well
above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United
States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are
reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.
Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
(as of 9 July 2024)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1
, Michael M. Bell2
, Alexander J. DesRosiers3
, and Levi G
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024
We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active
Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the
hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near
record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more
conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and
intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind
shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of
a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well
above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United
States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are
reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.
Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
(as of 9 July 2024)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1
, Michael M. Bell2
, Alexander J. DesRosiers3
, and Levi G
lexxnchloe
Member
If CSU is right something better start to happen really soon
NCSNOW
Member
I been riding 1933 as a analog. Since we been hyperactive forecasting the season since pre Christmas. It was a La Nina as well. All about the stearing,Sal and Shear no mattervwhat else happens imo.
Brent
Member
19* thats counting the 4 we had but as long as we get 2-3 more this month I think it's doable. September has crossed double digits before and October has a second peak
lexxnchloe
Member
Euro still has what is a weak storm
snowc
Member
There's more storms?!
accu35
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Not now!! Read carefully.
Brent
Member
The peak of the season is still a month away...
NCSNOW
Member
Yep, sept 15th. If you look at Graph charts its pretty flat June 1st through Aug 15th,then goes straight up vertical to sept 15, before descending down and flat linning once again from 0ct 15- November
JHS
Member
A whole lot can and will probably happen in the tropics yet. If I remember right, in 2004 we had not had a named storm yet and look how that turned out. Charley, Gaston, Francis, Ivan and Jeanne.
2024 has had 2 CONUS H landfalls by Aug 5th. Since 1851, there have been only 8 other seasons with 2+ by then with 7 of those 8 having exactly 2:
Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI:
-2024: 2; ?; ?
-2020: 2; 4; -1.2
-2005: 2; 3; -0.0
-1959: 2; 1; -0.3
-1936: 2; 1; -0.3
-1934: 2; 1; -0.1
-1916: 2; 2; -1.4
-1909: 2; 3; -1.0
-1886: 4; 2; -0.8
-So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024
-All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1
-The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO
-The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO
-Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6)
*ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950
Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI:
-2024: 2; ?; ?
-2020: 2; 4; -1.2
-2005: 2; 3; -0.0
-1959: 2; 1; -0.3
-1936: 2; 1; -0.3
-1934: 2; 1; -0.1
-1916: 2; 2; -1.4
-1909: 2; 3; -1.0
-1886: 4; 2; -0.8
-So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024
-All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1
-The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO
-The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO
-Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6)
*ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950
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lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
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Henry2326
Member
The ICON worries me way more than the EURO....
00Z and it shows up again in 06Z
00Z and it shows up again in 06Z
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NoSnowATL
Member
Fishy
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS and CMC both show the low at the same position as the ICON just before 40W and move toward Dominican Republic, same path as ICON.
Henry2326
Member
Not on GFS. pushing toward cuba/gulf.
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS...initializing same as ICON and CMC.
Shaggy
Member
Euro will be interesting with a storm just NE of Bahamas
lexxnchloe
Member
The 12Z Euro ends the run with a TC at 30N, 71W moving NNE aiming W of Bermuda as it recurves due to a trough.
lexxnchloe
Member
Henry2326
Member
Loos like GFS, no surprise, is the only one going further west.
lexxnchloe
Member
The euro has taken it further west each run
Henry2326
Member
It's a fish storm where it's forecasted.
The much more credible 12Z Euro ensemble (since this is 10 days out) has only ~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent EPS runs. The other 50% are either close to or actually hit the US, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run anyway.
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