Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[Henry2326]

The much more credible 12Z Euro ensemble (since this is 10 days out) has only ~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent EPS runs. The other 50% are either close to or actually hit the US, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run anyway.

Well we will do this all over again next week....lol

 

[lexxnchloe]

It's a fish storm where it's forecasted.

Yes but it gets further west from a few days ago








Quite a bit more west today

 

[lexxnchloe]

If the high over the NW ATL builds a little more it might not recurve

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Arcc]

If the high over the NW ATL builds a little more it might not recurve


View attachment 149639

Mountains would have to move for that not to recurve. Not saying it cant because long term models, but no chance of hit there in that image. Surface highs mean little.

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS alot stronger

 

[lexxnchloe]

Hurricane well before the Islands. Might mean an early recurve

 

[Henry2326]

18z Icon......look at that train of storms.
Btw.....next storm at 20n is same position as last couple of Icon runs.

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS gets it to here but its on a weakening trend from the bahamas to here

 

[GaWx]

GFS gets it to here but its on a weakening trend from the bahamas to here

View attachment 149655

More importantly, the 18Z GEFS has a good number of CONUS threatening members to the Gulf and E coast.

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON SW of 12z

 

[lexxnchloe]

Well SW of 12Z

 

[accu35]

Safely out to sea

 

[lexxnchloe]

Safely out to sea

EURO says yikes and gets even further west. Moving a bit west of north at that point. All models stronger tonite

 

[LickWx]

EURO says yikes and gets even further west


View attachment 149681

This season like 99, Debby is Dennis and whatever comes later is Floyd

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS much stronger but OTS

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS stronger still but OTS though the pattern is better to get close

 

[Shaggy]

GFS stronger still but OTS though the pattern is better to get close

View attachment 149691

We are still so far out its always better to just watch ensemble trends

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[lexxnchloe]

One thing is for sure. This isnt the last 3 years where anything that managed to form flew out well east of Bermuda. This season will have its share of recurves as always

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Arcc]

EURO says yikes and gets even further west. Moving a bit west of north at that point. All models stronger tonite


View attachment 149681



View attachment 149682

Yeah the 0z is way closer than 12z was. Not far from a weak cutoff forming over the SE as well.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Yeah the 0z is way closer than 12z was. Not far from a weak cutoff forming over the SE as well.

View attachment 149695

The GFS isnt all that far from that. Euro very Gloria like.

 

[Shaggy]

The GFS isnt all that far from that. Euro very Gloria like.


View attachment 149697

Would guess there are several gefs members with a landfall already over the carolinas

 

[Brent]

New area to watch

 

[Henry2326]

New area to watch View attachment 149700

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of low pressure could form in the central or western
tropical Atlantic Ocean early next week. Some development of this
system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during
the early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward toward the Greater Antilles thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 

[Brent]

Some big hurricanes but a strong recurve signal at least for now

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[Henry2326]

The second one in the train (all models) is the one to watch. It won't recurve with the Highs "so high".

 

[lexxnchloe]

ICON much stronger

 

[SD]

Flirting with disaster here

 

[lexxnchloe]

Flirting with disaster hereView attachment 149727

Yes, GFS considerably further west

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFSstill has num 2 following behind

 

[weather bubba]

Number two would be the F storm on the hurricane list provided the first one develops as shown. People in the Carolinas cross their fingers and hope for the best when any storm that has F as the first letter is in the Atlantic.

 

[Shaggy]

Flirting with disaster hereView attachment 149727

Yes. Not far from pulling this NW if that developing cutoff is further SW

 

[NCSNOW]

Interested to see what AI model says about the E potential storm

 

[thekidcurtis]

Number two would be the F storm on the hurricane list provided the first one develops as shown. People in the Carolinas cross their fingers and hope for the best when any storm that has F as the first letter is in the Atlantic.

Especially when the name is (Fran)cine.


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