Mjo gets less bad in the Caribbean and gulf around the first of August
I want to go on the record and say we will have 1 to 2 hurricane emergencies. I haven’t brought the term/presentation up at any conferences but I believe we need to have a discussion on this. A strong major hurricane ramming into a fish bowl (New Orleans) or flood city (Charlestown or Houston) on an election year requires an official act of Hurricane Emergency Warning Declaration. This means a serious threat of long term power outages or people moving long term that could have years of impact to society, government, life or property. It would also allow aid in without states requesting and trigger our allies abroad to come in for rescues and relief operations with no debates. It would be prevent another Katrina.I do believe we have not learned or prepared.
Seems legit with the mjo unfavorable until around 8/1 or after. We might see something try to get going in the central or western MDR the first week of August but that might be rushing itWhereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, though they could be off obviously, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11.
Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933
Opinions?
That high is going to have to retreat some! Looks straight west atm!
It certainly isnt as advertised by all the predictions. Very very dry.That high is going to have to retreat some! Looks straight west atm!
It certainly isnt as advertised by all the predictions. Very very dry.
Agreed. It’s simply too early in the season to say the season is trending one way or the other. I also hope the season forecast busts. However, I fully expect things to really ramp up in September and October based on the indices and the overall pattern shaping up.I mean I hope the season busts tbh because we don't need what may happen but it's hard to draw any conclusions in July... Now if it's not better in a month then we can discuss
I've seen things flip overnight out there....in fact a week before Beryl I thought it was gonna be awhile tooand Beryl being that strong in the Caribbean is a very bad sign
Seems that way every July and early August. Seems midish August that the conditions improve if that’s what you want to call it!I guess the Saharan dust is the “X’ factor for this blockbuster season?? Especially as we transition to the Cape Verde season? Looks to really be a fly in the ointment currently!?
Do you think it correlates to MJO phase or just happen chance?https://www.tallahassee.com/story/n...s-forecast-2024-hurricane-season/74452324007/
Here's an interesting write up about the lull we are experiencing now. I still believe that we will experience a busy hurricane season once the Saharan dust abates and the wind shear lets up which will probably occur just in time for the traditional Cape Verde season.
A combination of both to be honest. The MJO is going into phases 1 and 2 which are favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic during the first week of August. The Saharan dust should be abating coming off the coast of Africa and wind shear will be relaxing soon. The environment is going to be more favorable for tropical development in August and with the bathtub warm ocean water out there there should be some activity once the wave train gets rolling off of Africa.Do you think it correlates to MJO phase or just happen chance?