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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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GaWx said:
Is there any model that doesn’t at least get into the Gulf now? Euro, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, and JMA all do with at least GFS and UKMET never going back into the Atlantic
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As far as models go I still say wait until a llc forms. Weaker is west, stronger will go north. That was the issue I had with the euro being east previously!
 
Henry2326 said:
No worries....If it doesn't blowup, there is another one right behind it.

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You have wayyyyy too much faith in the operational models. Take them all with a grain of salt until something develops. For Beryl, none of them were right this far out or close in. The NHC averages all the models.
I watch everything I can get my hands on and then shrug.
The global tropics outlook reviews what's sitting over Africa now and will be coming into the Atlantic....it's not just make believe climatology.
 
Like I'm going to be right I said that the other computer models were going to curve to the GFS model and it looks like it.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I dont think so, If it were 945mb passing that close to land it might pull in a nice cool dry airmass behind it.
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Weak is always good. But again, the operational models are horrible at strength before a storm actually happens and many times afterward. Beryl was a cat4 and the models had it at a 2, other than HWRF which performed exceptionally well.
 
Henry2326 said:
Weak is always good. But again, the operational models are horrible at strength before a storm actually happens and many times afterward. Beryl was a cat4 and the models had it at a 2, other than HWRF which performed exceptionally well.
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Yeah not saying this will blow up but nobody or any model thought Beryl would be a Cat 5
 
Brent said:
Yeah not saying this will blow up but nobody or any model thought Beryl would be a Cat 5
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Yeah I think we’ve learned over the years that models are not very accurate on strength when a system is still forming. I’ll never forget seeing those GFS/EURO runs with the wave that would become Michael in 2018 that were only maxing it out as a strong TS/minimal hurricane
 
Omg....NHC moves cone to the west. Lol

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward
Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and
northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this system is not
anticipated during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. However,
environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean,
including in the vicinity of Florida. Interests across the Greater
Antilles, Bahamas, and Florida should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
Really interested to see what happens with that convection north of PR tonight. If that takes over or starts to bias the vorticity north the NE tracks may be more likely. If it dies out and this stays relatively open there's not as much ability to draw the wave north as the mid level trough isn't that strong over the weekend so a gulf track is more likely. Either way when that trough in the east boots out if this isn't picked up its not going anywhere. I think the biggest concern here is a festering healthy wave either in the Bahamas or west of Florida Sunday with no where to go. There may be some continental air that tries to wrap in as it starts interacting with the front but these waves moving into decaying fronts have a tendency to spice up quickly
 
I wonder if this is why waves are so streched out and cloudless this season. Pressures are well below normal north of th CV islands not allowing them to consolidate. I assume that is also pulling alot of hot dusty air into the MDR

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lexxnchloe said:
I wonder if this is why waves are so streched out and cloudless this season. Pressures are well below normal north of th CV islands not allowing them to consolidate. I assume that is also pulling alot of hot dusty air into the MDR

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This is common for July into early August. They’re often dry with SAL dominating.
 
GaWx said:
This is common for July into early August. They’re often dry with SAL dominating.
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Savannah cannot hold anymore water. A tropical storm would be deadly. The flooding near Daffin Park has been wild. Even a gulf hit would be bad.
 
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