Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

[BHS1975]

Some of these GFS runs for 95L would be almost unheard of this early. If this becomes a hurricane before the Caribbean there are no real analogs recently

There's no analogs for these SSTs either.


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[SD]

The gfs and cmc with twin systems is something. Makes you wonder if there's going to be competition between vorticity centers or if it's truly 2 systems

 

[GaWx]

12Z:
GFS/ICON/CMC/Euro/UKMET/GEFS/GEPS look pretty similar to their respective earlier runs. Im still waiting to see if the ICON and especially UKMET are going to do more with this. The JMA fwiw is significantly stronger through the Caribbean with a strong TS in the W Car. The Euro ens mean looks a bit further SW with just a few either recurving off the SE or hitting FL. Many hit from Nicaragua N to the central US Gulf coast.

 

[Henry2326]

NHC up to 80% in 7 days.

 

[Henry2326]

That's tight....

 

[Brent]

I'm definitely very interested to see how much strengthening occurs in the next few days. No doubt there will probably be a stretch of hostile conditions in the Caribbean. That's the part about this that would be record setting if it happens

 

[SENC]

The forecasted Sahra Dust (Layer) may put the Kibosh, on anything forming, though..

that said ..

 

[Shaggy]

Nice blow up starting for 95L

 

[lexxnchloe]

Nice blow up starting for 95L

Looks good for late June.

 

[weather bubba]

95L now has a 90% chance for development. We may be talking about Beryl before the day is over.

 

[Brick Tamland]

And another disturbance right behind it. Wonder if that could weaken 95L or combine for one stronger storm.

 

[lexxnchloe]

And another disturbance right behind it. Wonder if that could weaken 95L or combine for one stronger storm.

This is what happens with the 2nd wave or maybe a combo of both. Will be interesting to see if something stronger ends up along the SE coast.

 

[SD]

This would be very nice since it's not overly strong ands would likely be a drought buster but there's almost 0 support right now from the eps and a low percentage from the gefs. Either the gfs is going to score a big W or be way off

 

[Shaggy]

This would be very nice since it's not overly strong ands would likely be a drought buster but there's almost 0 support right now from the eps and a low percentage from the gefs. Either the gfs is going to score a big W or be way offView attachment 148178

I know where I'd play my bets!! It is however a testament to the potential of the cane season being active as it seems there's already been a steady stream of invest for June

 

[tractor girl]

I'd prefer it ride up the west coast of FL, into SW AL/GA, through mid/north GA, and then up and across SC into NC and beyond

Weather never cares about our preferences however

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I'd prefer it ride up the west coast of FL, into SW AL/GA, through mid/north GA, and then up and across SC into NC and beyond

Weather never cares about our preferences however

I think you mean SE AL

 

[SD]

As the subtropical ridge gets pushed east and weakens a little late in the week the pattern becomes more conducive to any system in the Caribbean to gain latitude. Not sure if Beryl could do it, it may already be too far WSW unless it gets tied up in the islands or the Yucatan but a trailing system would be in a prime spot

 

[Downeastnc]

As the subtropical ridge gets pushed east and weakens a little late in the week the pattern becomes more conducive to any system in the Caribbean to gain latitude. Not sure if Beryl could do it, it may already be too far WSW unless it gets tied up in the islands or the Yucatan but a trailing system would be in a prime spot

Yeah if the SAR shifts east later in the season with the ocean temps like they are and low shear we in trouble......

 

[Snowfan]

As the subtropical ridge gets pushed east and weakens a little late in the week the pattern becomes more conducive to any system in the Caribbean to gain latitude. Not sure if Beryl could do it, it may already be too far WSW unless it gets tied up in the islands or the Yucatan but a trailing system would be in a prime spot

There is that AOI behind Beryl but it depends on how Beryl's wake affects it.

 

[Brent]

There is that AOI behind Beryl but it depends on how Beryl's wake affects it.

That may end up being a bigger story for US impacts tbh if it can hold together til Beryl goes away