Brent
Member
Also may be another storm similar to Alberto. Definitely not dead anytime soon
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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter lexxnchloe
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Brick Tamland
Member
Have to keep an eye on the one headed towards GA and FL. We have seen these disturbances blow up quickly the past few years.
Snow_chaser
Member
Up to a 40% chance now.
lexxnchloe
Member
Recon is on the way. Should 92L have its own thread? Opinions?
It isn’t shear so much as it is dry mid level air holding this back so far from what I read elsewhere.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
From Larry Cosgrove
Careful review of the Atlantic Basin and Africa shows an impressive Saharan heat ridge complex. There are still low latitude westerlies aloft, so even with a strong pulse ITCZ at work through the equatorial regions, we are not likely to see any meaningful tropical cyclones for the next two months. It is either shear or the vast amount of sand and hot/dry air that will diminish these systems. But when the subtropical high begins to parcel and shift toward the Mediterranean Sea, the cTw air mass will suspend and there will be less infiltration on impulses as each passes Cape Verde into the Atlantic Ocean. This will be a very active and probably dangerous hurricane season with impacts on the major islands, USA, and Canada. But I think that the main action waits until gaps in the ridge appear in Mid-August. Once here, the action will probably continue until just after Halloween. The numbers: 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major cyclones, with strike probabilities for both Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The equatorial Pacific theater could see 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major events.
Careful review of the Atlantic Basin and Africa shows an impressive Saharan heat ridge complex. There are still low latitude westerlies aloft, so even with a strong pulse ITCZ at work through the equatorial regions, we are not likely to see any meaningful tropical cyclones for the next two months. It is either shear or the vast amount of sand and hot/dry air that will diminish these systems. But when the subtropical high begins to parcel and shift toward the Mediterranean Sea, the cTw air mass will suspend and there will be less infiltration on impulses as each passes Cape Verde into the Atlantic Ocean. This will be a very active and probably dangerous hurricane season with impacts on the major islands, USA, and Canada. But I think that the main action waits until gaps in the ridge appear in Mid-August. Once here, the action will probably continue until just after Halloween. The numbers: 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major cyclones, with strike probabilities for both Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The equatorial Pacific theater could see 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major events.
lexxnchloe
Member
July1-26 2005
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
A cape verde system
lexxnchloe
Member
GFS tries to get going
GFS at 240 then it washes out
GFS at 240 then it washes out
Brent
Member
Probably gonna have to wait til deeper into July for much
Right now everything is gonna head to Mexico anyway if it tries to get west
Right now everything is gonna head to Mexico anyway if it tries to get west
lexxnchloe
Member
MDR trying to get started
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BHS1975
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
Big fish are coming
From what I saw elsewhere there’s a wave that is progged to move off Africa on Thursday that has some potential for development in the MDR per latest model consensus.
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