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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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From Larry Cosgrove


Careful review of the Atlantic Basin and Africa shows an impressive Saharan heat ridge complex. There are still low latitude westerlies aloft, so even with a strong pulse ITCZ at work through the equatorial regions, we are not likely to see any meaningful tropical cyclones for the next two months. It is either shear or the vast amount of sand and hot/dry air that will diminish these systems. But when the subtropical high begins to parcel and shift toward the Mediterranean Sea, the cTw air mass will suspend and there will be less infiltration on impulses as each passes Cape Verde into the Atlantic Ocean. This will be a very active and probably dangerous hurricane season with impacts on the major islands, USA, and Canada. But I think that the main action waits until gaps in the ridge appear in Mid-August. Once here, the action will probably continue until just after Halloween. The numbers: 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major cyclones, with strike probabilities for both Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The equatorial Pacific theater could see 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major events.
 
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