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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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Maybe not worth posting but this second one has been very consistent.
 
CMC with two storms in the Gulf in the next 10 days 🤣 that's not including anything off the east coast in the short term

The second one goes to Mexico just FYI it's not a big US threat like the GFS has hinted
 
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lexxnchloe said:
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Related:
12Z UKMET has TD at 150 just off GA that moves NNE to Tybee/lower SC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.06.2024

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 81.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.06.2024 156 31.9N 80.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 22.06.2024 168 33.8N 80.3W 1014 25
 
Brent said:
Definitely next area to watch.
Euro and now the GFS show strengthening til landfall View attachment 148002
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In addition to the 18Z GFS, the 18Z Euro and ICON both have this. The ICON has this as a nearly closed off surface low just off NE FL at the end of the run (hour 120) moving WNW toward Jacksonville.

Also, the 12Z and 18Z GEFS both have moderate support for this with 5-6 of the 31 members landfalling as a surface low along the SE coast late next week.

This is now a 20% 7 day lemon (actually looks more like a squash) on the newest TWO:

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake

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GaWx said:
In addition to the 18Z GFS, the 18Z Euro and ICON both have this. The ICON has this as a nearly closed off surface low just off NE FL at the end of the run (hour 120) moving WNW toward Jacksonville.

Also, the 12Z and 18Z GEFS both have moderate support for this with 5-6 of the 31 members landfalling as a surface low along the SE coast late next week.

This is now a 20% 7 day lemon (actually looks more like a squash) on the newest TWO:

2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas. Some slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while the system
moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake

View attachment 148003
Click to expand...
1718503978218.png
 
The ICON went from virtually nothing on the 12Z to a nearly closed off low on the 18Z to a TS on the 0Z. It landfalls as what I think is a TD (due to slight weakening) near Brunswick.
 
If you believe the icon we could have two storms threatening the US at the same time midweek with the BOC area possibly in Texas
 
That thing in the SW Atlantic is the classic tail end of a front you have to wait for it to pinch off to really see what you have system.

Looking at visible this morning you can already see low clouds heading W and WSW on the W side of the plume of persistent convection way E of jax so this area is certainly going to make a run at getting going. It'll be interesting to see just how far S and E it drifts over the next 36 hours before the ridge over the top yanks it west. Also how much dry air does it pull in with the continental air to its north.
 
12Z models so far for low off SE US coast:

-ICON has the low further west than prior runs and this leads to a further SW track into C FL. It is a tad stronger than the open wave of 6Z, but is much weaker than the 0Z TS and is likely not quite a TD.

-GFS similarly comes in further SW into C FL; similar to 6Z with a TD but weaker than the TS of the 0Z

-GEFS consistent with its operational has its mean further S, less active, and not as wet as prior two runs

-CMC weaker than the barely closed 0Z with nothing closed into SC (similar track to 0Z)

-UKMET no TC just like 0Z and unlike the TD that formed on yesterday’s 12Z just offshore Brunswick on Fri moving N to GA/SC border
 
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