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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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JHS said:
That probably would not be going out to sea either unless something changed fast, but of course this is a long way out. My guess would be right into the Wilmington NC area.
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Does the ridge retreat enough for that? I don’t see it based off of recent results! 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
I dont know how tropical it is but if we are going to get nums up things like this will need to be named

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I guess we will see if The euro is right. GFS still shows nothing




That 999mb heat low over NW Africa isnt going to help waves hold together but i think it will keep the dust cloud going,

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JHS said:
If it were to happen, I do not think it goes out to sea.
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No chance of that. Its biggest problem if it were to develop is if it goes south in the carib the SA heat low will shred it. Looks weaker if its there at all on Euro.

0z euro

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12z its gone

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12Z EPS for the AEW just off Africa (that lead to TD in GOM at 240 on 0Z Euro but nothing on 12Z Euro as posted above):

still has members with a TC (~10) but that’s only ~1/2 as many as 0Z EPS had. About 8 of these 10 hit the CONUS from LA around to NC Aug 4-8.
 
Brent said:
Well the NHC is interested in the long range threat. GFS has a ton of land interaction in it's path though View attachment 148829
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Some development of this system will
be possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the
early to middle part of next week and moves generally
west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles toward the latter part
of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Berg
 
These maps leave room for recurving storms if they form in the Atlantic. Of course, anything in the Gulf will have to come ashore somewhere. Hopefully not Houston or the Lake Charles area though. They have had enough bad weather to last a lifetime there.
 
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