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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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GaWx said:
Despite the 12Z Euro being much weaker, the more reliable ensembles (12Z EPS) are still quite active and still are heavily favoring either near or offshore the US E coast with just a couple of members with a TC in the E GOM.
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Got thatvon the plots image or is that not out yet?
 
Shaggy said:
Got thatvon the plots image or is that not out yet?
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1. 12Z EPS is out on Pivotal.

2. Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.
 
SD said:
August hurricane 1970
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A tropical depression developed off the west coast of Africa on August 7, with organized convection and banding features. A day later, the depression passed south of Cabo Verde as it moved across the tropical Atlantic. On August 10, it intensified into a tropical storm, after the thunderstorms became more concentrated. However, a Hurricane Hunters flight two days later observed a weak system, suggesting the storm weakened back to a tropical depression. While approaching the Lesser Antilles, the depression turned to the northwest and re-intensified back into a tropical storm, with hurricane-force wind gusts north of the center. Late on August 14, the circulation opened into a trough. On August 15, a circulation reformed, and the system became a tropical depression again as it bypassed the eastern Bahamas. A day later, the system re-intensified into a compact tropical storm while turning northward. On August 17, the storm made landfalls along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, first on Atlantic Beach and later at Rodanthe. As the storm accelerated northeastward, it intensified into a hurricane, with peak winds of 80 mph (130 km/h), based on the well-defined eye and a report from a nearby ship. On August 18, the system became extratropical south of Newfoundland, and subsequently it slowed and shifted its track back to the sou
 
Similar GFS

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Big difference is it holds together enough to develop alomg the NC coast.


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Possibly becoming a hurricane with a big high to the north.

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I know this is a weather board and that’s what is discussed. That said, and I say it during the winter, I don’t see the point in the highs and lows of individual long range model run reactions. A signal has been shown, the conditions could be favorable but no one knows what’s going to happen. The models are going to flip back and forth until there is better data in a closer timeframe. Peak is still like 5 weeks away.
 
0Z GFS no TC/just weak Gulf low

0Z CMC/ICON TS into FL panhandle

0Z Euro 1006 mb TD/TS into NC OB

0Z UKMET: TS just off FL E coast that then turns NNE

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.8N 77.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 132 24.8N 77.9W 1009 42
0000UTC 04.08.2024 144 26.3N 79.5W 1005 47
1200UTC 04.08.2024 156 28.2N 80.2W 1006 33
0000UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.0N 79.6W 1006 34
 
GaWx said:
0Z GFS no TC/just weak Gulf low

0Z CMC/ICON TS into FL panhandle

0Z Euro 1006 mb TD/TS into NC OB

0Z UKMET: TS just off FL E coast that then turns NNE

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.8N 77.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 132 24.8N 77.9W 1009 42
0000UTC 04.08.2024 144 26.3N 79.5W 1005 47
1200UTC 04.08.2024 156 28.2N 80.2W 1006 33
0000UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.0N 79.6W 1006 34
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For a hyper active season this is a letdown so far. GFS up to aug 14. At least the GFS shows the east pac calming down.

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06GFS has nothing but it has the East pac active once again. If that is right things will be delayed even longer

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UHC..... says too soon to tell......


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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system is
in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
1) 12Z UKMET: still has a TD though not as strong as the 0Z’s TS that had skimmed the SE FL coast at Palm Beach. The new run delays TCG til it is 50 miles NE of Cape Canaveral. It then moves NE to 150 miles E of Amelia Island, FL:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 29.0N 80.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2024 156 29.0N 80.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.6N 79.0W 1008 34

————————-

2) 12Z CMC is further E and much weaker with just a weak low over SE FL/NW Bahamas. But then it gets stronger as it moves NE offshore NC and becomes a TS moving further OTS.
 
The 12Z EPS is still active and is fairly similar to the 0Z/6Z with some hitting the E coast but more staying just offshore and way less activity in the Gulf vs the Atlantic.
 
That it drops to 1005 mb over land suggests it finally finds a favorable area as it gets away from the MDR. If it were to stall and loop just offshore it might be an alex 2004


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two_atl_7d0 (2).png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the system is in the
vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Bubble leaning more to the east side....

two_atl_7d0 (3).png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the system is in the
vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
 
BHS1975 said:
Euro very Florence like.


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Only if it becomes a cat 4 before land fall. I live in Wilmington. Grew up here. I'm not a meteorologist. But the remnants of Cat 4s that come through are more powerful than a developing storm. Hurricane Matthew comes to mind and Florence.
 
The old rule of thumb is if the system hasn’t formed yet with a center then modeling is biased too far east. If that’s the case we making be looking at OBX landfall or a scrape up the east coast for all states or Canada strike again. The signal is there for development and that’s all we can really go on. Intensity and track won’t be known. I.E the cat 5 we already had this year. The NHC has been doing a good job on cyclone genesis and that’s really the first step to help these models run.
 
lizajane said:
Only if it becomes a cat 4 before land fall. I live in Wilmington. Grew up here. I'm not a meteorologist. But the remnants of Cat 4s that come through are more powerful than a developing storm. Hurricane Matthew comes to mind and Florence.
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I agree, Irene was a beast of a storm even though she was much weaker than her former glory because she had a large well developed wind field and smack us around for hours with the center a good 75-100 miles east of us.....seems like the local home grown storms tend to stay on the smaller size with tighter cores....storms like Alex and Arthur....the center of Arthur was as close as Irene and officially 100 mph versus Irene's 85 and we got no wind from Arthur because he did not have the well established wind field she did.
 
For C MDR system:

1. 0Z CMC forms TC off SE coast, center stays a little offshore SC/NC, and then becomes a H well offshore; ends run just off NE Nova Scotia as significant storm

2. 0Z UKMET: large shift SW from 12Z run and much earlier TCG just N of C Cuba with TS near Key West then turns into FL Big Bend followed by NNE motion into SC/SE GA, NE into coastal SC and then ENE move to offshore CHS; TS nearly the entire track

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.8N 79.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 108 23.3N 79.9W 1007 37
0000UTC 04.08.2024 120 24.8N 81.8W 1004 39
1200UTC 04.08.2024 132 26.9N 83.2W 1003 37
0000UTC 05.08.2024 144 28.9N 83.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 05.08.2024 156 31.4N 82.5W 1008 36
0000UTC 06.08.2024 168 32.8N 79.4W 1006 35
 
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