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Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

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0Z Euro: stays in Gulf through end of run as a weak system; extreme rainfall just off W coast of FL

0Z UKMET: TC into Mississippi that then turns E
 
The models are all over the place as far as the future of this potential tropical system. It looks like a lot of rain wherever it ends up tracking, especially if it stalls out over the Gulf Coast or Western Florida. I think we will have a better idea of what may happen once a low pressure center develops with this disturbance.
 
Meanwhile there is still no sign of hyper-active


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What is showing up on the Euro is also a feature on the GFS. I may be the only one but these low pressures north of the CV islands are killing tropical waves


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I would think the opposite is needed for waves to amount to anything. High pressure north of CV, Low pressure south.
 
06z GFS......and if this actually happened:
Hurricane in the gulf
Hurricane in the Atlantic
Would hit Jax, which hasn't happened in 100 years; not sure of actual years, but a really long time. Pushing water up the John's River in Jax would be a disaster no matter how strong the storm.


gfs_mslp_wind_seus_fh90-90.gif

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Definitely need to watch if Debby crosses FL exit GA coastline, strengthening and crawling near those Gulf stream waters.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
 
Debby might be the catalyst to jumpstart the season. Huge cool high has dropped down behind Debby. The place to look will be the SW ATL with a big high north and stalled front south. Also, it might get the CV season going.

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