• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical 2024 Tropical Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next several days. Development of this system is possible
while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle
part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near or
over the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Berg
 
Shaggy said:
6Z gfs shifted from Texas to a Irma like track up the west side of Florida. Only thing that far out to focus on is the signal for a storm. Details come later
Click to expand...
The 6z GFS would be rough in my area and probably bring several tornados to the Carolinas. But this is 10 days out and will change. We may not even have a storm at all.
 






Eric Webb

@webberweather

The tropical wave off the coast of Africa is another classic case where old fashioned pattern recognition is superior to model forecast consensus w/ medium range potential for tropical development. In addition to the CCKW passage, favorable SSTs, & shear, this wave has the classic precipitable water structure associated w/ "developing" AEWs (from Brammer & Thorncroft (2015)). Note the dipole of high PWATs to the NW of the wave axis, and drier air on the equatorward side. This type of PWATa distribution protects the tropical wave from dry air/SAL intrusions that typically come from the NW & is indicative of an active/unstable & poleward shifted monsoon trough that's more likely to eventually produce TCs.

 
Yeah split the difference in the Euro and GFS track and the SE got problems especially given the full rivers and saturated ground, hopefully we can dry out enough this week to prevent any real issues if this thing does end up forming and coming into the SE...
 
Euro is very consistent at least. If things are really favorable i like to look to see if the model develops anything behind a cane and the Euro doesnt. Back to seeing if they agree on something or nothing tonight.

1722107465403.png


JB says buckle up



This is why i am hesitant to say the Euro is right. There isnt even a hint of anything behind it. Even Beryl had a strong wave following that likely would have been a storm except beryl got too strong and it was too close to Beryl

1722112073473.png

Of course the 18z GFS could have a cane again
 
Last edited:
No comeback on 18Z GFS. Most likely its going to be dropped tonite on the Euro. Right now ive lowered my expectations and would be delighted if we had another 1986 Charley. We will have to wait till all this slows down. Usually Aug/sept are slow in the east pac.

1722120587587.png
 
Last edited:
lexxnchloe said:
No comeback on 18Z GFS. Most likely its going to be dropped tonite on the Euro. Right now ive lowered my expectations and would be delighted if we had another 1986 Charley. We will have to wait till all this slows down. Usually Aug/sept are slow in the east pac.

View attachment 148863
Click to expand...
No worries....it will be back. Strong message from Euro ensemble means something is coming....typical response from operational models.
 
I think this one is dead. Not even a strong wave on the 06GFS and weaker and further east on Euro. If there is good news the east pac is much less busy

1722165070104.png
 
Last edited:
Just after the least active GEFS run in awhile (the 0Z with only 1 member (3%) having a TC) and despite the 6Z GFS being still another run without a TC from the central MDR wave, the 6Z GEFS with 5 TCs from 31 members (16%) is the most active GEFS to this point. All 5 members landfall in the CONUS (4 E coast, 1 FL Keys and panhandle) with 3 of these 5 landfalling twice. And this is with a still very active EPAC.

IMG_0024.png
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top