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Tropical 2023 Tropical thread

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tractor girl said:
Disburbance 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

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The GFS has been all over the place with it. Keep us updated.
 
12Z HRRR not far off everything else...

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_43.png
 
Radio met, 101.5 this morning said this isn’t good news for NE NC. I’m assuming this means it’s not going to develop and bring them the much needed rain they’ve been clamoring for.
 
Looking at the latest 3k NAM, it’s very much in line with globals in terms of the track now. Even though it looks like it deepens a bit quicker, it only bottoms out around 985mb… still a bit to low, but definitely not as crazy as it was earlier. Also just out of curiosity is there going to be a thread starting since the NHC now has it as an invest?
 
Chazwin said:
Looking at the latest 3k NAM, it’s very much in line with globals in terms of the track now. Even though it looks like it deepens a bit quicker, it only bottoms out around 985mb… still a bit to low, but definitely not as crazy as it was earlier. Also just out of curiosity is there going to be a thread starting since the NHC now has it as an invest?
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it's been posted if you read a few comments above

Invest 99 thread here: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/99l.1228/
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Haven't had too many days in September without a named system in the basin. If 90L gets classified today which it likely will then the stretch continues
 
Finally seeing the surge tide blow back out.....

pamn7_hg.png


This is a newer gauge here in Greenville and today set the record crest for this gauge final value not yet determined....previous highest was 8.53 ft, for those familar with Greenville this is over by the football stadium, Charles Blvd is underwater at the train overpass.....again.

gvln7_hg.png
 
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This GFS run had some of the rem energy of Ophelia getting together with a low that drifted up from Florida to form this and visit NC again....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh132-198.gif
 
Gefs also one member that had 2 smaller weaker systems come out of the carribbean cross southern Florida and hit NC back to back.
 

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You might not think so but the Euro is very interesting. At 240 it has what might be a developing low off the se coast and a cane that might have a hard time recurving, What you dont see is a weak storm that moves due west just north of the islands and washes out in the bahamas.

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_64.png


This high is pretty strong so will the cane move west like the previous storm did or turn north?

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_atl_64.png



that circle north of PR is the previous storm that moved due west and washed out

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_atl_44.png
 
accu35 said:
East coast lookout again on the 18z
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Almost the same look as Ophelia, except with more tropical moisture from the Gulf and Caribbean. Again, we see the models latching on to an barotropic storm thanks to upper level energy accumulating at the base of a negatively tilted trough within the Pacific Subtropical Jetstream.

Along with abundant tropical moisture due to record SSTs, the Southern Jet is providing some interesting El Nino weather events in Florida. During Ophelia's evolution, my area received several inches of rain from all the mid-level vortexes that passed through S. Florida, and the upper level environment produced a funnel cloud near Ft. Lauderdale. Areas received 20 minutes of 45-65MPH winds as the convection bowed. This is now the 4th funnel cloud of they year spotted within 5 miles of my house (Davie, Hollywood, Cooper City, and Pembroke Pines), which has also experienced 3 weak tornadoes. Ft. Lauderdale has received almost 88" of rain as of 4PM today. We are set to break 100" if these conditions continue into October.

Climate

www.weather.gov
 
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Whenever I see an image someone posts of a hurricane 50 miles from the SE coast that is not the last image in that model run, it's almost a 100% chance that it goes on to not hit the US in later frames. Don't even need to check the rest of the run.
 
Rain Cold said:
Whenever I see an image someone posts of a hurricane 50 miles from the SE coast that is not the last image in that model run, it's almost a 100% chance that it goes on to not hit the US in later frames. Don't even need to check the rest of the run.
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And right after i said this

"It ends up turning away but it brings back the west carib cane and takes it to SW FLA". Not alot of cane season left. The threats are still out there
 
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