It's funny if you take some of the recent top analogs for this year you get a snowfall range of T-12. So it's easy to harp on the good/bad years but geez not much is off the table. The negativity is incredible
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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
It never stays cooler for more than 2 days this time of year. Expecting anything else is just dramatic.
Thor
Member
I'd say we are running about 2 months ahead of schedule for the full winter cliff jumping this year. December will be interesting. What's after cliff jumping? Is it the might as well just root for summer/pool season crowd? If that happens before the end of the year it will be painful.
Yeah it gets earlier and earlier every year. Back when I first started on these interwebz everyone held on until Feb maybe you'd get a freak out earlier if there was a terrible NW trend. It's fun to look at different years and develop a general idea but there's too much internal variability within the season to really write things off at +45 days from the start of met winter
It's funny you say that in a thread that's also closing in on 2K posts...
Broken024
Member
Damn winter is over already?
smast16
Member
Winter isn't over this year. You can't end something that won't start. Winter last ended Jan. 2018, with a freak snow storm in Dec '18, and hasn't returned yet.
When is the last time we've had a true arctic airmass come to the southeast and last more than 2 days? I know i'm a very sarcastic person, but objectively, when is the last time we haven't stared at Ridge after Ridge on the east coast?
When is the last time we've had a true arctic airmass come to the southeast and last more than 2 days? I know i'm a very sarcastic person, but objectively, when is the last time we haven't stared at Ridge after Ridge on the east coast?
Most April into early May and last Dec/Jan
In all seriousness we have done a great job in our region at catching all the bad breaks and seeing all the things that could go wrong go wrong over the last 2 years. To me it falls into you win some you lose some which is especially heightened in our region where losing =0 snow
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The longrange outlooks are ridiculous when it comes to winter in the southeast. We might get nothing, we might get two or three nice events, or we might get one huge one. I've seen sucky winters bring one huge snow storm, and I've seen winters where the pattern was ripe but we still got zilch. It's gonna do what it's gonna do.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Exactly. I never understood why people pay any attention to long range forecasts. It's a waste of time and it has no value because it's hardly ever right. There are just too many variables in play that can throw a wrench into the forecast.
NoSnowATL
Member
True and most people know this but its still fun to look at and ----- at.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I guess people need something to talk about so thats why it is discussed.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I recently started some new medication.
There are some things that help when looking long range such as ocean temps but trying to figure out months down the road in a hostile environment usually doesn't work.
I remember Back in the days in October this look would be lows in the 20s and highs in the 50s, now it’s just barely below average 
Remember when the EURO was projecting this solution for the current time frame?
How well did that work out?
All models were, we escaped the one that was showing up for late this week/weekend. I Remember when the GFS was showing 59/32 at one point
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Brick Tamland
Guest
- covid test thank goodness, man this sinus infection is no joke, sick or better I’m going back to work tomorrow I can’t stand knowing the amount of hours lost this week